February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CLEARING!!!

 

for now

 

Snow shower moving through right now. North wind picked up a little after it. 

[Deweydog]

Mid-level clouds backbuilding from the Cascades to the valleys later on??

They seem to slowly improve but stay kinda messy until late tomorrow morning.

[ewnichols25]

back down to freezing after topping out with a high of 35°F. low this morning was 22°F.

Hit 18 degrees here after a high of 34. Now at 30.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It may be the 1989 storm that I'm thinking of. I wasn't quite 10 in 1990, so dates are likely confused. But I definitely remember being without power for a very long time. 10-year-old me thought that was pretty cool. Not so much for adult me.

1990 had two storms in December that I think were both more snowy than the 1989 Feb 1 arctic blast, and in 1990 led to a white Christmas.  That was a much better event for North Sound as far as snow goes.  But 1990 was pretty D**n windy too.  

[Front Ranger]

1993-94 and 1973-74 at least had regional arctic airmasses. And 2013-14, 2003-04, 1983-84, 1953-54, 1923-24, 1893-94, 1883-84, 1873-74, and 1853-54 is better than the 0-1 catalog.

 

2020-21 will be the first year of Phil's multi-year Nina Ice Age, though.

 

#1720-21redux

[Guest Sounder]

weather app says rain this weekend is it gonna snow i hope it snow

[runninthruda206]

Aye I finally registered. I’m gonna keep my eyes glued to this forum for the next week :-)

[Jesse]

They seem to slowly improve but stay kinda messy until late tomorrow morning.

24 or so at PDX seems like a safe bet. But they could easily go lower if clearing is fairly widespread and long lasting.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

weather app says rain this weekend is it gonna snow i hope it snow

Metro area will probly see something. S valley is really iffy.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

35 and light rain. Will be interesting to see if there is any clearing in the next 24 hrs.

[Deweydog]

I remember when 206 was the ONLY area code...

[Requiem]

weather app says rain this weekend is it gonna snow i hope it snow

 

PDX-SEA will probably see something. Basically the whole region above 500 feet will see at least a couple inches. NWS says the GFS is underestimating the cold air in place, the easterly wind, and the Columbia Gorge cold pool.

[Deweydog]

24 or so at PDX seems like a safe bet. But they could easily go lower if clearing is fairly widespread and long lasting.

I’d go with 24 as the best case assuming they lost they’re meaningful snow cover.

[Guest Sounder]

PDX-SEA will probably see something. Basically the whole region above 500 feet will see at least a couple inches. NWS says the GFS is underestimating the cold air in place, the easterly wind, and the Columbia Gorge cold pool.

what is gfs is that weather.com i like the weather channel they have pretty graphics

[Prairiedog]

GORGEOUS location! Does the creek have any fish?

Some strays come up from the Clackamas.  Clear Creek runs in just above the Carver Bridge.  I've seen a few springers move thru the shallows and watched bald eagles catch a steelhead or two.  Watched otters get some as well.  Not a lot of fish, just a few.  I'm an avid steelhead and salmon fisherman but I won't disturb any fish that come up this creek. Hopefully they will spawn, whether hatchery or nats. 

[antipex]

PDX-SEA will probably see something. Basically the whole region above 500 feet will see at least a couple inches. NWS says the GFS is underestimating the cold air in place, the easterly wind, and the Columbia Gorge cold pool.

 

I do wonder how the Gorge will influence PDX...

[Prairiedog]

The Gorge will be the big player in this I think.  It will cover a multitude of sins with the tracking of the low.

[Westy]

I finally registered as well. I also have several friends now following. Can't wait for the tremendous potential ahead.

[Geos]

Totals through 4AM Wednesday.

 

Good lord! Gonna miss more work it seems.

[Jesse]

Speaking of the basin cold pool, high of 26 in Pasco today, 27 in Yakima and Hermiston, 24 in Pendleton.

 

#inversionseasonisback

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Deweydog]

Lives will be lost.

[Cloud]

Fridays are usually anticipated because it’s the last day of the work week for most. This Friday will solely be anticipated for something else.

 

#IsItFridayYet?

[Requiem]

what is gfs is that weather.com i like the weather channel they have pretty graphics

 

GFS stands for "good fried steak", and is usually what meteorologists eat before they forecast. But weather.com is a LOT more accurate.

[Requiem]

Mark is apparently now calling for significant snow chances through Valentine's Day.

[Westy]

My location is on the higher hills in West Seattle. The town virtually shut down over 2-3 inches and schools have been closed the past 2 days with almost no snow on the main arterials. Can't imagine what the city will do if half the potential outcome from the weekend comes to fruition. But..been burned before too many times to count by telling my wife/ friends too quickly...wait until Thursday?

[Prairiedog]

When you can get cold core showers with a freezing level already down to 500-1,000ft then add low and midlevel cold from the Gorge that is a classic set up for accumulating snow for our area.  You can't ask for a better set up.  Still a lot of moving parts so hearts can be easily broken but I sure like the possibilities of this.  Way better than what we just had. 

[Cloud]

My location is on the higher hills in West Seattle. The town virtually shut down over 2-3 inches and schools have been closed the past 2 days with almost no snow on the main arterials. Can't imagine what the city will do if half the potential outcome from the weekend comes to fruition. But..been burned before too many times to count by telling my wife/ friends too quickly...wait until Thursday?

Wait until you see flakes.

[seattleweatherguy]

Good lord! Gonna miss more work it seems.

Take an uber!

[Phil]

PDX-SEA will probably see something. Basically the whole region above 500 feet will see at least a couple inches. NWS says the GFS is underestimating the cold air in place, the easterly wind, and the Columbia Gorge cold pool.

The GFS often under-estimates surface cold pooling out this way too, especially at-range. I’ve seen it bust warm by over 18 degrees within 24hrs in a few bizarre setups.

 

I wouldn’t worry about it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My location is on the higher hills in West Seattle. The town virtually shut down over 2-3 inches and schools have been closed the past 2 days with almost no snow on the main arterials. Can't imagine what the city will do if half the potential outcome from the weekend comes to fruition. But..been burned before too many times to count by telling my wife/ friends too quickly...wait until Thursday?

 

So Seattle proper got about 2-3". It's hard to tell what amounts were widespread sometimes because in my mind everyone in W. Washington on here is "from Seattle," but I know different locations up there vary wildly. 

[Skagit Weather]

A 32.5F/11.9F day here. Didn't get quite as cold as February 2011, but there's still time. Running about 3 degrees warmer at this time tonight as compared to last night so it'll be interesting to see if we can get back down to what we saw this morning.

 

Also, I wouldn't mind the precipitation resisting the Fraser outflow a little more. While 3" would be great, it would be a little disappointing if Seattle ended up with a foot.

[Deweydog]

The GFS often under-estimates surface cold pooling out this way too, especially at-range. I’ve seen it bust warm by over 18 degrees within 24hrs in a few bizarre setups.

 

I wouldn’t worry about it.

All the models struggle with scouring situations for us. Tons of examples where surface temp progs can be 10-15 degrees too warm and retreat is delayed 24-48 hours or more. January 2004 and December 2008 are ridiculous examples.

[Westy]

So Seattle proper got about 2-3". It's hard to tell what amounts were widespread sometimes because in my mind everyone in W. Washington on here is "from Seattle," but I know different locations up there vary wildly. 

 

Yes, K12 alluded to this too thinking Seattle got nailed. We did not. Friends up north and on the east-side did but not Seattle metro.

[Requiem]

Yes, K12 alluded to this too thinking Seattle got nailed. We did not. Friends up north and on the east-side did but not Seattle metro.

 

Yeah, usually when I say Seattle I'm thinking Puget Sound. I often forget how diverse the totals are up there.

[Front Ranger]

So Seattle proper got about 2-3". It's hard to tell what amounts were widespread sometimes because in my mind everyone in W. Washington on here is "from Seattle," but I know different locations up there vary wildly.

From official snow reports, the city got anywhere from 2-5", with highest amounts in north Seattle.

 

Northern and eastern suburbs got anywhere from 4-9".

[Phil]

All the models struggle with scouring situations for us. Tons of examples where surface temps can be 10-15 degrees too warm and retreat is delayed 24-48 hours or more. January 2004 and December 2008 are ridiculous examples.

Which mesoscale models tend to handle it best out there? I presume the ECMWF would simulate the terrain effects better than the other globals?

 

The GFS seems to be catastrophically terrible w/ CAD and terrain effects in general. It’s embarrassing.

[Bryant]

Yeah, usually when I say Seattle I'm thinking Puget Sound. I often forget how diverse the totals are up there.

Models for this storm show a foot for Seattle, and 2-3" for myself and others up in Whatcom County. So yeah, you can imagine the frustration

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lives will be lost.

Lives will be made.

[Deweydog]

Which mesoscale models tend to handle it best out there? I presume the ECMWF would simulate the terrain effects better than the other globals?

 

The GFS seems to be catastrophically terrible w/ CAD and terrain effects in general. It’s embarrassing.

I assume the Euro, but it’s been a while since we’ve had a setup to test it.