February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[runninthruda206]

WRF also hinting the Monday/Tuesday storm may be another two act deal.

 

The main frontal band moves through from roughly 4-8PM, there is a short break with some random showers popping up, and then another more convergence-looking band moves in around Midnight or 1AM.

 

Now, if this comes to fruition, let's not all have a collective meltdown if the radar quiets down for a bit Monday night. Don't need a repeat of yesterday.

i think the meltdown is coming from the warm up

[ShawniganLake]

[bainbridgekid]

28543F27-F5D8-40FC-8619-CE44C528FDDB.png

Looks like it's picking up on a lot of warmer Southerly flow Southeast of Seattle.

 

How much does it show for tomorrow night?

[BLI snowman]

06z NAM is now picking up on the anafront scenario for Monday night that the Euro has shown across NW OR.

[Requiem]

Monday-Tuesday's system is reminding me a lot of 2/5/17. Heavy rain for the valley, snow for Puget Sound. Very dynamic, should be a fun day!

[Skagit Weather]

14F outside. Might have a chance to get a little bit colder than last week if winds stay calm. Arlington down to 10F.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Has anyone seen the EPS past day 10?

[runninthruda206]

Monday-Tuesday's system is reminding me a lot of 2/5/17. Heavy rain for the valley, snow for Puget Sound. Very dynamic, should be a fun day!

I thought it’s looking like it’s going to rain around the sound now? Did the morning models switch back?

[Requiem]

I thought it’s looking like it’s going to rain around the sound now? Did the morning models switch back?

 

I think you guys will get at least some snow. The warmup is pretty brief and the precip rates will be quite heavy.

[runninthruda206]

I think you guys will get at least some snow. The warmup is pretty brief and the precip rates will be quite heavy.

Oh nice. Is it looking like it’ll get cold again Tuesday night?

[snow_wizard]

Has anyone seen the EPS past day 10?

 

Still cold.

[snow_wizard]

Small improvments on the GFS.  Slightly better low track and notably colder 850s following the main low.  Gradient angles look perfect to feed cold air from the passes into King County during almost the entire precip event.

[snow_wizard]

I thought it’s looking like it’s going to rain around the sound now? Did the morning models switch back?

 

I'm not seeing rain.  Thicknesses are below 528 for the entire event and we will have low level east winds.  Rain seems really unlikely.

[Requiem]

I'm not seeing rain.  Thicknesses are below 528 for the entire event and we will have low level east winds.  Rain seems really unlikely.

 

Rain is Portland's deal.

[snow_wizard]

The Weatherbell maps still show Seattle remaining below freezing for long periods each day for the coming week.

[snow_wizard]

Rain is Portland's deal.

 

You are likely correct.  You could see snow again when the colder air drops in again later in the week.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like it's picking up on a lot of warmer Southerly flow Southeast of Seattle.

 

How much does it show for tomorrow night?

[Tenochtitlan]

BLI's temperature sensor is acting a bit goofy tonight.

[Silverfin]

BLI's temperature sensor is acting a bit goofy tonight.

Oh good, I thought I was going crazy.

[Tenochtitlan]

Oh good, I thought I was going crazy.

Yeah for a sec I thought something really weird was happening with the outflow, but then I compared with the other Bellingham stations that are just a few miles away and it's 6-9 degrees warmer than them and jumping around randomly.

[Brennan]

Yeah for a sec I thought something really weird was happening with the outflow, but then I compared with the other Bellingham stations that are just a few miles away and it's 6-9 degrees warmer than them and jumping around randomly.

I left work at the Slo Pitch off of Guide Meridian at around 2:30am and it was 24* there. By the time I got to North Lake Samish it was 14* and then 12* at the Alger gas station. BLI’s wind is messing up their temps for sure.

[Geos]

About 15 here right now. Could colder than the morning of the 5th. (13)

[overcast]

Seattle NWS overnight forecast discussion really highlights the freezing rain potential for the Monday night storm.

 

"With the exception to the Experimental FV3 solution that keeps conditions cold and gives insane amounts of snow to much of the

southern 2/3 of the area, the models show about 5-8 inches of snow in the interior north of Seattle and Shelton and change

precipitation south of there to a rain, or a freezing rain-snow-sleet mix. Will opt for the mixture given the cold air in place

and the tendency for models to mix it out too quickly. While snowfall amounts would be cut back to the south of Seattle in this

most likely scenario late Monday night into Tuesday, freezing precipitation can pose huge impacts to roadways and the power

grid. The mountains are expected to see large amounts of snow with this system. The winter storm watch will be changed to midday

Monday through Tuesday and will be segmented as appropriate to differentiate the frozen precipitation from the mixed frozen and freezing precipitation threats."

 

 

For South Sounders this just brought up fears and memories of 1996 and 2012 ice storms. Some trees in Puyallup still show the scars. I'll never forget the crazy crackling of the forests from 2012. I sure hope this low stays south!

[awright31]

Seattle NWS overnight forecast discussion really highlights the freezing rain potential for the Monday night storm.

 

"With the exception to the Experimental FV3 solution that keeps conditions cold and gives insane amounts of snow to much of the

southern 2/3 of the area, the models show about 5-8 inches of snow in the interior north of Seattle and Shelton and change

precipitation south of there to a rain, or a freezing rain-snow-sleet mix. Will opt for the mixture given the cold air in place

and the tendency for models to mix it out too quickly. While snowfall amounts would be cut back to the south of Seattle in this

most likely scenario late Monday night into Tuesday, freezing precipitation can pose huge impacts to roadways and the power

grid. The mountains are expected to see large amounts of snow with this system. The winter storm watch will be changed to midday

Monday through Tuesday and will be segmented as appropriate to differentiate the frozen precipitation from the mixed frozen and freezing precipitation threats."

 

 

For South Sounders this just brought up fears and memories of 1996 and 2012 ice storms. Some trees in Puyallup still show the scars. I'll never forget the crazy crackling of the forests from 2012. I sure hope this low stays south!

Wait, that's something that actually might happen?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 at Olympia!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've never seen this before...Looking at the zone forecast, most of this should fall above 2000', which is okay by me...

 

Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-Northern Oregon Cascades-
Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Cascades in Lane County-
Including the cities of Sandy, Estacada, Silver Falls State Park,
Sweet Home, Government Camp, Detroit, Santiam Pass, Vida, Jasper,
Lowell, Cottage Grove, McKenzie Pass, McKenzie Bridge, Oakridge,
and Willamette Pass
601 AM PST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
feet expected.

* WHERE...Cascades and foothills of Northern Oregon and Lane
County.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
impossible at times due to heavy snow and occasional white out
conditions.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble mean now hits -8.2C at PDX on early Wednesday morning then it spikes before the next trough and bottoms out around -6C on the 17th. The only difference is now the mean stays below -4C from 22z on the 15th until 22z on the 23rd....

[BigDaddyMike]

Does anyone have a map ( or set of maps ) that would indicate possible freezing rain for South Sound?  I am not sure what they are going off of for this possibility.  

[MossMan]

06z Euro totals for 4AM tomorrow and then 4PM Tuesday.

That looks like a slight increase from the 00z...or ami wrong?

[Prairiedog]

I've never seen this before...

 

Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-Northern Oregon Cascades-

Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Cascades in Lane County-

Including the cities of Sandy, Estacada, Silver Falls State Park,

Sweet Home, Government Camp, Detroit, Santiam Pass, Vida, Jasper,

Lowell, Cottage Grove, McKenzie Pass, McKenzie Bridge, Oakridge,

and Willamette Pass

601 AM PST Sun Feb 10 2019

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING

TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4

feet expected.

 

* WHERE...Cascades and foothills of Northern Oregon and Lane

County.

 

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Tuesday.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to

impossible at times due to heavy snow and occasional white out

conditions.

that is nuts for some of the mentioned locations. Estacada won't have anything close to that.  If they are talking about the hills around Estacada, they may see good accums.  Downtown Estacada is just a little over 400ft.  There is fast elevation gain as you go east and SE.  Sandy is at an average of 1'000 FT and exposed to the southerlies when they come in at the mid levels.  They are not going to get feet of snow without cold air support.  Youhave to look at the mid level temps.  There certainly isn't going to be any Gorge support.  If you go east towards Brightwood, Zigzag, etc that valley can trap cold air and it may be deep enough to support more snow fir a while until that dome of cold air is eroded.  It's also protected from the initial hit of south winds.  Sandy is exposed and I seriously doubt they get anything remotely close to those amounts IF south winds come in.  If south winds come and infect the lowlands they will do the same in Sandy, maybe just a little later but not much.  I think when they mention Estacada and Sandy, they are more like landmarks or a starting point for where the foothills begin  but I've seen this many times before.  Those two places most of the time are not a good representative of the Cascade foothills.  Areas east of them are. 

If there is even a hint of southerlies in the W. Valley there isn't going to be much or any snow event at low elevations. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM wants to give the Willamette Valley from Salem south a major snow event on Tuesday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

that is nuts for some of the mentioned locations. Estacada won't have anything close to that.  If they are talking about the hills around Estacada, they may see good accums.  Downtown Estacada is just a little over 400ft.  There is fast elevation gain as you go east and SE.  Sandy is at an average of 1'000 FT and exposed to the southerlies when they come in at the mid levels.  They are not going to get feet of snow without cold air support.  Youhave to look at the mid level temps.  There certainly isn't going to be any Gorge support.  If you go east towards Brightwood, Zigzag, etc that valley can trap cold air and it may be deep enough to support more snow fir a while until that dome of cold air is eroded.  It's also protected from the initial hit of south winds.  Sandy is exposed and I seriously doubt they get anything remotely close to those amounts IF south winds come in.  If south winds come and infect the lowlands they will do the same in Sandy, maybe just a little later but not much.  I think when they mention Estacada and Sandy, they are more like landmarks or a starting point for where the foothills begin  but I've seen this many times before.  Those two places most of the time are not a good representative of the Cascade foothills.  Areas east of them are. 

If there is even a hint of southerlies in the W. Valley there isn't going to be much or any snow event at low elevations. 

 

Yeah, for most places below 2000' there is going to be a periof of rain that will be at least 12-24 hours. 

[MossMan]

From NWS Seattle.

[Blizzard777]

Monday-Tuesday's system is reminding me a lot of 2/5/17. Heavy rain for the valley, snow for Puget Sound. Very dynamic, should be a fun day!

And a high wind warning for the Hawaiian islands! K12 special!

Feel like I’m in a candy store of weather currently...still on sensory overload

 

18*

[GHweatherChris]

Wow down to 14 here!!

[MossMan]

16.8 currently.

[Esquimalt]

A balmy 23 f here

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON coming out now.  

 

Big shift again to the north and west tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday morning.    Crazy shifts in the models for being with 3 days.   Look at the yellow part of the moisture plume.  

 

 

00Z run for Tuesday morning...

 

 

 

12Z run at the same time...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON is even further north with the Tuesday system. Far enough north to bring rain to Puget Sound. But everyone wanted it to trend north...Got your wish.

[Blizzard777]

From NWS Seattle.

This would so suck! Don’t want my yard to be damaged by ice....rather have heavy rain in this case