February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Since we've lived here, (June 15') yes. I think my perception on it is much different now that I don't travel out of state for work anymore. I used to be gone away from home working elsewhere around the country so when I would come home, it was a novelty to me. Now that I have a career thay allows me to be home every night, I have to deal with this day in and day out. I dont want to live in a snowy climate. Wwaaayyyyy too much work. Especially when a mild winter is one like we've had this year and last year ...."only" 2 1/2 feet of snow on the ground by March. Lifelong locals say it used to snow upwards of 6 feet during winter in these parts...back in the "good ol' days". Well I'm convinced those days are nearing once again and I don't want any part of that. Phoenix here we come!

I live in a snowy climate, we average 8 feet of snow every winter, a few winters ago we had 9 feet.  You definitely have to be prepared for it.  For me, it is not that much work.  I do have to use the snowblower on my driveway, but I actually like doing that, but some would consider that work, and would get tired of it.  They do plow our streets, so driving is rarely an issue, but you do need to drive cars that are AWD and it also really helps to have snow tires.  The one thing I DON'T like is the berm at the end of the driveway.   The snowblower is no help with that, it is simply grunt work with a shovel.  No fun there.  Our house was built to code and can handle large snow loads, so no worrying about shoveling the roof either.  

[Jesse]

I live in a snowy climate, we average 8 feet of snow every winter, a few winters ago we had 9 feet. You definitely have to be prepared for it. For me, it is not that much work. I do have to use the snowblower on my driveway, but I actually like doing that, but some would consider that work, and would get tired of it. They do plow our streets, so driving is rarely an issue, but you do need to drive cars that are AWD and it also really helps to have snow tires. The one thing I DON'T like is the berm at the end of the driveway. The snowblower is no help with that, it is simply grunt work with a shovel. No fun there. Our house was built to code and can handle large snow loads, so no worrying about shoveling the roof either.

You sound like someone who isn’t going to move to Phoenix this year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Right about where we'd want to see it on those lesser models at this point.

Yeah, this sort of reminds me of the first snowstorm back in February 2014 and also January 2017 where the models had the moisture well south but it eventually worked it's way northward as the event drawed near.

[seattleweatherguy]

Looks like a CZ signature over King County on that map.

I can live with that! #northward trend

[epiceast]

I hope this verifies as the beginning of the inevitable warm up leading into spring. I've had my fill of winter. It was pleasant the first few days then it just wouldn't stop snowing over here. It has snowed every Fu***** day here since January 23. Done!

I wish it was warm enough to snow here everyday! We had so many sub 20 highs with wind chill here, but only 10" of snow to show for it.

[BLI snowman]

Chilly 32* this beautiful sunny morning

Temp dropped to 30* last night and current dew point is 28*

 

Friend down in Vegas said rooftops were white with snow and reports of up to 6” of snow in the surrounding area of Vegas.

McCarran international recorded 1 inch of snow early this morning at 4 am.

Trended Way South!

The media's cluelessness never ceases to impress me. It would have taken 30 seconds of fact checking for them to see how silly this story is.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/kdvr.com/2019/02/21/las-vegas-gets-first-measurable-since-record-keeping-started/amp/

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

You sound like someone who isn’t going to move to Phoenix this year.

I hope I never get that old!  Well, I hope I get that old, but still want to be young at heart.  I know a guy who still cross country skis 5 miles every day, and he is in his late 80's.  He is the guy on a lot of Leavenworth postcards that stands on the ledge of the Enzian Inn and plays the Alpenhorn in his lederhosen.   He stopped doing that a year or so ago because of balance issues, but still skis every day during the winter.   That's the guy I want to be like.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is this the longest streak of sub-50 highs in Portland history? At this rate we might not see a 60 until April.

 

At PDX yes. I know Downtown Portland had a 20 day streak in 1936 (We are at 18 through yesterday). BLI posted that in 1891 PDX did not see a high above 48 in February.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I would throw that UKMET run out the window. Those lows never go due east after landfall.

[Jesse]

I hope I never get that old! Well, I hope I get that old, but still want to be young at heart. I know a guy who still cross country skis 5 miles every day, and he is in his late 80's. He is the guy on a lot of Leavenworth postcards that stands on the ledge of the Enzian Inn and plays the Alpenhorn in his lederhosen. He stopped doing that a year or so ago because of balance issues, but still skis every day during the winter. That's the guy I want to be like.

Same here. Hope to stay active and embracing of cold and snowy climes well into old age. I love hearing about people like that.

[Perturbed Member]

WRF keeping the good stuff further south. Just where we want it . 

[Jesse]

The media's cluelessness never ceases to impress me. It would have taken 30 seconds of fact checking for them to see how silly this story is.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/kdvr.com/2019/02/21/las-vegas-gets-first-measurable-since-record-keeping-started/amp/

THE SNOW WAS CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE.

 

#resist

[TT-SEA]

GFS and FV3 make it clear that this system will be digging more offshore than what was shown... and the precip will end up much farther north.    This is a repeat of last week.  

 

This is going to be a Seattle area snowstorm again... and the incredible thing is that schools were closed all this week for mid-winter break and there would have been no weather issues but then on the first day back there is going to be another huge snowstorm.    

[Jesse]

GFS and FV3 make it clear that this system will be digging more offshore than what was shown... and the precip will end up much farther north. This is a repeat of last week.

 

This is going to be a Seattle area snowstorm again... and the incredible thing is that schools were closed all this week for mid-winter break and there would have been no weather issues but then on the first day back there is going to be another huge snowstorm.

I’m all for it as long as Portland gets in on the action this time.

[TT-SEA]

I’m all for it as long as Portland gets in on the action this time.

 

I am guessing that it ends up hitting the same areas again and screwing the same areas as well.    

 

Or maybe Portland gets an epic ice storm with warm air aloft and Gorge outflow while Seattle is buried in snow again.

[Jesse]

The 12z ensembles aren’t as bad as I was lead to believe. The mean is essentially unchanged the last several runs, and the warm up looks slower if anything. There is definitely a lot of spread even in the short to mid term, though.

 

[Jesse]

I am guessing that it ends up hitting the same areas again and screwing the same areas as well.    

 

Or maybe Portland gets an epic ice storm with warm air aloft and Gorge outflow while Seattle is buried in snow again.

I’m thinking you are just despaircasting because you don’t want to return from your tropical paradise to more snow on the ground.

 

The trends definitely favor Portland at the moment.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

WRF keeping the good stuff further south. Just where we want it .

Yeah, right where we want to be at the moment.

[Perturbed Member]

GFS and FV3 make it clear that this system will be digging more offshore than what was shown... and the precip will end up much farther north.    This is a repeat of last week.  

 

This is going to be a Seattle area snowstorm again... and the incredible thing is that schools were closed all this week for mid-winter break and there would have been no weather issues but then on the first day back there is going to be another huge snowstorm.    

 

 

This event doesn't look like that previous one at all in the big picture, I don't understand why you think it is an apples to apples comparison. I do think this thing will trend north but I'm not seeing how the previous Seattle event tells us anything about where this low goes. 

[TT-SEA]

I’m thinking you are just despaircasting because you don’t want to return from your tropical paradise to more snow on the ground.

 

The trends definitely favor Portland at the moment.

 

 

Its more about school at this point... my kids have been school for 2 days in February.    That is insane.

 

But its only Thursday and the trend is clear... and I am guessing it will continue to trend north for more 2 more days before locking in just like last time.

 

00Z GFS...

 

 

 

And now the 12Z run...

 

[BLI snowman]

I’m thinking you are just despaircasting because you don’t want to return from your tropical paradise to more snow on the ground.

 

The trends definitely favor Portland at the moment.

 

Yeah, objectively it's easily a more suppressed setup at least on Monday than what we saw last week. Pretty different.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hello im new here well I’ve been lurking on here for awhile before just wanted hello and hope everyone can get a good round of snow before winter closes the door! Nws has been saying that it may just be too warm in Seattle/Portland regions for snow but I can recall accumulating snowfall as late as April (2008) so definitely anything can happen!

[TT-SEA]

This event doesn't look like that previous one at all in the big picture, I don't understand why you think it is an apples to apples comparison. I do think this thing will trend north but I'm not seeing how the previous Seattle event tells us anything about where this low goes. 

 

 

It is actually very similar for the PNW.   

 

That trough is likely going to dig more offshore and that is exactly what happened last week.    I am not sure how you can say its totally different.

 

The trend is clear... the trough and cold air will not be as far south as originally shown.   

 

00Z run...

 

 

And 12Z run... the trough being shown digging more offshore more is the same model evolution as with the event last week.  

 

[BLI snowman]

Its more about school at this point... my kids have been school for 2 days in February.    That is insane.

 

But its only Thursday and the trend is clear... and I am guessing it will continue to trend north for more 2 more days before locking in just like last time.

 

00Z GFS...

 

 

 

 

And now the 12Z run...

 

 

 

 

You're also cherry picking here. The 12z GFS yesterday showed

 

 

The 18z showed

 

 

The 6z showed

 

 

And now the 12z

 

 

 

Clearly the 00z was the southern outlier from the last handful of runs, and the GFS has been pretty consistent otherwise with the location of the low. The 12z actually hedged south again from some earlier runs. No massive north trend.

[TT-SEA]

I am not following as closely as usual... and I want nothing more than for Portland to get hit this time and everything to go south of King County. Trust me on this... I want that to happen as much or more than the folks in Portland. We have the exact same rooting interest here.

 

But this feels like its going to end up evolving the same way as last week.

[wxmet]

One run isn’t a trend and the setup is not the same as last week by any means. This is entirely northern steam driven.

[TT-SEA]

One run isn’t a trend and the setup is not the same as last week by any means. This is entirely northern steam driven.

 

 

I hope you are right.  

[TacomaWaWx]

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is already further north than the 00Z run at 72 hours.    And if you look at the last three 12Z runs for Sunday morning... you can see a dramatic shift northward.

[TT-SEA]

Here is Monday morning...

 

12Z ECMWF yesterday:

 

 

 

And the new 12Z run today...

 

[Timmy]

12Z ECMWF is already further north than the 00Z run at 72 hours. And if you look at the last three 12Z runs for Sunday morning... you can see a dramatic shift northward.

pdx snow ?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[FroYoBro]

Here is Monday morning...

 

12Z ECMWF yesterday:

 

 

 

 

And the new 12Z run today...

 

 

 

Yep, most models have trended a little warmer with a worse upper level pattern for down here today. Not sure why people are disagreeing with you. 

[GHweatherChris]

#north

[TacomaWaWx]

Or find a gig in the Midwest or even just east of the Cascades and enjoy all 4 seasons. I know some of us can’t do that at the moment but in the coming years, every one of us will eventually see a solid snow event of more than 4” again, even if it’s at least having to travel to the snow

 

As far as the Willamette Valley seeing anything more than a 4” snowstorm, it feels very unlikely and possibly for many years after what has been a good decade esp down south. We are due for some crappy winters.

[Requiem]

Y’all are depressing me. The trends are really not that bad, especially since the east wind component looks to be more involved this time around.

[Timmy]

Y’all are depressing me. The trends are really not that bad, especially since the east wind component looks to be more involved this time around.

looks like the new euro may be about perfect for pdx. I don’t have access to precip maps

[FroYoBro]

Y’all are depressing me. The trends are really not that bad, especially since the east wind component looks to be more involved this time around.

 

No, the trends are not the end of the world, just something to keep an eye on. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is way north with the snow on Monday morning compared to the 00Z run.    Its only Thursday... I doubt the models lock in on this event until Saturday night or Sunday morning.  

 

 

00Z run:

 

 

12Z run:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

True, Pacific Northwest lowlands aren’t the greatest area to see snowfall, East of the cascades is where it’s at. I try not to get too upset when it doesn’t snow here, I just go up to snoqualmie or baker if I am craving to see snow. However we all don’t know what the next couple weeks hold weather wise anything can happen in the Willamette valley or Puget Sound.