February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Deweydog]

FV3, lol. Totally believable getting 14+ inches in Eugene with the low well north of them.

Explains why the NWS just issued a WSW for 0-16 inches of snow.

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS

[Jesse]

I’d like to see some of the warm members in the short to mid range disappear on the 18z ensembles. I would count that as progress.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Explains why the NWS just issued a WSW for 0-16 inches of snow.

WOW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still a long ways to go on this fellas...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We could see a cold night ahead. Seems like some dry air moving in.

[Deweydog]

Still a long ways to go on this fellas...

We’re surrounded by Tims, fellas!!!

 

Sleep with one snarky eye open!!!

[Deweydog]

BTW... What a perfect day!

 

Sunny, crisp, clean air! Major snowstorm on the way!

 

Doesn’t get any better than this!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It could trend south still, it’s not over for people in the Portland metro the models can flip back to what they were saying just the run before again tonight, you just never know nothings ever certain in forecasting.

Yeah, weather is so unpredictable. Whatever happens will happen.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

BTW... What a perfect day!

 

Sunny, crisp, clean air! Major snowstorm on the way!

 

Doesn’t get any better than this!

Yeah, I just got back from lunch and it was beautifully sunny and crisp outside. Great outdoor lunch weather in the winter.

[MossMan]

Gorgeous day! Oh and the maintenance guy at work is putting the mower deck back on the work mower...

[Esquimalt]

What a weird 18Z progression...even for the drunkle. 

[jakeinthevalley]

Fair weather cumulus moving in to cap the warming

[Perturbed Member]

2 clear camps now. The Euro, FV3 and GFS all look pretty similar with the positioning of the low. The NAM, GEM, UKMET and ICON are all similar looking with everything further south and closer to the OR/CA border. A real non-trivial risk of things going too far north since I trust the Euro, GFS and FV3 more but we'll see. Hopefully the trough digging south can put a stop to any further northward progression.

[jakeinthevalley]

My buddy just got back from his season working in Antarctica. Regardless of how we feel about the weather this month, he is just laughing and getting used to there being actual darkness.

[Deweydog]

If I see one more f*cking reference to the northward trend I’m gonna go to Subway, wrap a noose around my neck, pour acid on my face and scream “THIS IS MAGA COUNTRY!”

[HighlandExperience]

If I see one more f*cking reference to the northward trend I’m gonna go to Subway, wrap a noose around my neck, pour acid on my face and scream “THIS IS MAGA COUNTRY!”

Ok Jessie Smollett

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW, the 12z EURO Control run makes landfall Monday morning around Coos Bay. The Southern Willamette Valley gets the most snow on this run through Monday 10pm. Still lots of uncertainty going forward.

 

[MossMan]

FWIW, the 12z EURO Control run makes landfall Monday morning around Coos Bay. The Southern Willamette Valley gets the most snow on this run through Monday 10pm. Still lots of uncertainty going forward.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022112_96_5657_149_m0.png us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022112_114_484_215_m0.png

Mouth of the Columbia...Book it.

North.

[Jesse]

If I see one more f*cking reference to the northward trend I’m gonna go to Subway, wrap a noose around my neck, pour acid on my face and scream “THIS IS MAGA COUNTRY!”

NWsnow’s analysis was balanced and acknowledged some uncertainty. Rather than just proclaiming 20+ times that a northward trend is locked in without any nod to model differences or pattern complexity. I know your hands are tied but there’s a difference, and it’s why he gets so much crap despite it mostly being everyone else’s fault.

[HighlandExperience]

Mouth of the Columbia...Book it.

North.

The 18z GFS extends the precip field into King County. Not sure it makes it into your area, but I’m sure that will change on future runs.

[Perturbed Member]

EPS. 

[TacomaWaWx]

It always amazes me how just a few miles difference in placement of a low has such big effects on who gets snow and who is too warm, still uncertain at best.

[Deweydog]

NWsnow’s analysis was balanced and acknowledged some uncertainty. Rather than just proclaiming 20+ times that a northward trend is locked in without any nod to model differences or pattern complexity. I know your hands are tied but there’s a difference, and it’s why he gets so much crap despite it mostly being everyone else’s fault.

Duh.

 

And this just plays right into it.

[jakeinthevalley]

Personally, I am rooting for a complete magnetic pole reversal in the next 48 hours. You know, that old north is south, south is north kinda thing

[Esquimalt]

EPS. 

e3a41f84-7a32-4863-976e-90eea2bca245.jpg

Lots of members make landfall on the washington oregon border. 

[Jesse]

Duh.

 

And this just plays right into it.

Good thing your intervention is fixing EVERYTHING!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

EPS. 

e3a41f84-7a32-4863-976e-90eea2bca245.jpg

That is a really cool map.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Several thoughts

 

1) Sunday may be the best chance for widespread lowland snow across NW Oregon.

2) The EURO seems to be more on it's own than people are acknowledging.

3) Even the 06z and 18z GFS runs which are further north with the Monday low do not completely blow up the pattern in the same way the EURO does. 

4) The coldest point on the 18z GFS is actually in the post frontal airmass Monday night.

5) Still quite a bit of uncertainty with the ensembles. The operational is quite a bit warmer than the mean on Saturday night and again Sunday night, which would lead me to believe most ensemble members are in the southern camp.

[TT-SEA]

NWsnow’s analysis was balanced and acknowledged some uncertainty. Rather than just proclaiming 20+ times that a northward trend is locked in without any nod to model differences or pattern complexity. I know your hands are tied but there’s a difference, and it’s why he gets so much crap despite it mostly being everyone else’s fault.

 

Then ignore me.   

 

But you know I am probably going to be right.    That is what bothers you.  

[TT-SEA]

A couple thoughts.

 

1) Sunday may be the best chance for widespread lowland snow across NW Oregon.

2) The EURO seems to be more on it's own than people are acknowledging.

3) Even the 06z and 18z GFS runs which are further north with the Monday low do not completely blow up the pattern in the same way the EURO does. 

 

 

The ECMWF has the full support of the EPS over the next 10 days.

 

To ignore that is foolhardy... but whatever.     

[Omegaraptor]

I’ve been making lots of complaining posts recently, so it’s time for a happy post.

 

It was an absolutely beautiful day today. Everything was green and smelled great after the recent rainstorms. I’m starting to get spring fever. Can’t wait for late March!

[Bryant]

I mean, if we are wishcasting with no regard to sounding like an a*s, I'll take a northward trend resulting in a Seattle - Vancouver BC snowmageddon please.

 

#donthateme

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ECMWF has the full support of the EPS over the next 10 days.

 

To ignore that is foolhardy... but whatever.     

 

EURO and EPS then. 

[GHweatherChris]

I mean, if we are wishcasting with no regard to sounding like an a*s, I'll take a northward trend resulting in a My backyard - Vancouver BC snowmageddon please.

 

#donthateme

Fixed it

[Deweydog]

Good thing your intervention is fixing EVERYTHING!!

At the very least it’s trending north.

 

Right now it’s all about fixing Bryant.

[Bryant]

Fixed it

I'm located inbetween those locations so I figured I was being pretty selfless lol

[TT-SEA]

At the very least it’s trending north.

 

Right now it’s all about fixing Bryant.

 

 

Bryant and Brennan are going to do very well over the next week.    

[TacomaWaWx]

If there is snow over the next few days, it’ll be pretty remarkable considering that we’re nearing the beginning of March and some people are gonna have snow on the ground for sure to the north of the low. Just rare to be talking about significant snowfall so late in winter.

[Bryant]

At the very least it’s trending north.

 

Right now it’s all about fixing Bryant.

Watching Seattle get puked on with snow while I sat high and dry humbled me. I've made the most of the winter we got, but if there is a chance on the horizon, of course I'd love to see more.