jcwxguy Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Got a map that shows snow?soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaHawkeyes Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 soonOk thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 I can tell you this from the raw #'s-- much less rain for C.IA - and more snow. (compared to 12Z run) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 soon 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Still a lot of rain here at the onset with the WWA, but obviously a bit more snow as the cold sector takes over instead of being all rain. Guess it’s something to monitor now. Sure would make a mess if that’s to verify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Oh man.......its early but fun night of model runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 That's a huge jump for the Euro in 12 hours (at this range)-- HUGE. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 I wish there wasn't so much mild air ahead of this thing. Even with the farther south low track, 850 mb doesn't go sub-freezing until the low has passed by. This is a compact system, too, with a relatively narrow heavy snow band. It'll take some luck to be under it. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 As I alluded to several days ago, this system still looks to have a fairly significant severe weather event associated with it down south. Fantastic look at 500mb. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Man talk about a Bigley cut off on the euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 soonI didn't think I would be a player for this one but that is getting close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 OAX, which had previously gone full blown Euro with this storm, is now going full-blown GFS. GFS brings higher totals to here, but Euro has no rain beforehand which I actually think I'd prefer. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 OAX, which had previously gone full blown Euro with this storm, is now going full-blown GFS. GFS brings higher totals to here, but Euro has no rain beforehand which I actually think I'd prefer. must be a new snow weenie there lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Took a look at all the 51 EPS members and a shift SE in the mean storm track has resulted in many members clobbering most of IA which I alluded to the other day. The good ol' Chicago SLP magnet would bode well for those even into S WI if the SE trend continues. Given the dynamics of this system and how tightly wrapped up it becomes, anyone just N/NW of the system is in the game to see some snow out of this as it intensifies rapidly. This will be an interesting one to track. Let's not forget those near the KC region bc they are def in the game as well. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 It’s interesting how each run shows a stronger low yet its drifting SE. Would tend to think a more amped up system would go NW but that’s the beauty of wx. Someone in the upper MW is gonna get pounded that’s for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 It’s interesting how each run shows a stronger low yet its drifting SE. Would tend to think a more amped up system would go NW but that’s the beauty of wx. Someone in the upper MW is gonna get pounded that’s for sure.The main energy is digging farther south into TX/OK which is resulting in a shift SE in the storm track. Tanking -EPO is prob the culprit but I'd like to see if this is indeed a trend over the next several runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 The main energy is digging farther south into TX/OK which is resulting in a shift SE in the storm track. Tanking -EPO is prob the culprit but I'd like to see if this is indeed a trend over the next several runs.Thanks for the info Tom. . I haven’t had a lot of time to dive into this one yet. More fun tracking ahead regardless of where it ends up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 NWS Hastings mentioned the farther southeast shift but did say they wouldn't be surprised if it came back northwest with time if it gets really wound up. We'll see what plays out. I agree that being to the north/northwest is the place to be with this as we have less chance of rain washing away a great snowpack here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 In a training conference all week but it's going to be difficult to focus as I keep an eye towards the weekend. Inch of QPF looks all but certain. How much of that will be liquid is the question. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Local ABC meteorologist that I really trust thinks the system will come back a little north and be slower than models are showing. He thinks it could be big with significant travel issues and lots of wind. We have had fairly light winds for these last 3 storms which is virtually unheard of around here. Should be interesting to watch the models and see what track it takes. In other news, “spring” sports start in Nebraska Monday. Glad I don’t coach those. Might be inside for a long time this Spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Local ABC meteorologist that I really trust thinks the system will come back a little north and be slower than models are showing. He thinks it could be big with significant travel issues and lots of wind. We have had fairly light winds for these last 3 storms which is virtually unheard of around here. Should be interesting to watch the models and see what track it takes. In other news, “spring” sports start in Nebraska Monday. Glad I don’t coach those. Might be inside for a long time this Spring.Yeah with how intense this Winter has been it's definitely strange to have seen no real blizzards in the Southern/Central Plains. We're due for one and I think this may be it. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Local Weather Guru who knows his stuff believes the euro will win out in this next system and also thinks KC has a good shot at this one 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Local Weather Guru who knows his stuff believes the euro will win out in this next system and also thanks KC has a good shot at this oneAs long as it's snow. No more ice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 With this winter and models, I don’t know how any Met could possibly be all in on one model over another >48hrs out. Not logical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Took a look at all the 51 EPS members and a shift SE in the mean storm track has resulted in many members clobbering most of IA which I alluded to the other day. The good ol' Chicago SLP magnet would bode well for those even into S WI if the SE trend continues. Given the dynamics of this system and how tightly wrapped up it becomes, anyone just N/NW of the system is in the game to see some snow out of this as it intensifies rapidly. This will be an interesting one to track. Let's not forget those near the KC region bc they are def in the game as well. I sure hope this can move SE some more and we can get snow here. I have a buddy who I snowmobile with, and every time he can ride it's after the good snow and right after it rains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 12z GFS showing a legit Blizzard across portions of KS/NE into NW IA/S MN... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Looks like the 12z GFS is moving back NW a bit. A tick stronger at hr 84. Long ways to go with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Just curious but hasn’t GFS always been further north west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 GFS has been insisting on a western GL's cutter...and a monstrous one...I could already see this becoming a beast with widespread winter alerts accompanied by wind advisories. Sub 980mb storm??? Hope so, it would fit the bill and check off the 1st blizzard I've been predicting by mid March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Man this storm looks so impressive but like always with these alot of warm air warping in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Yeah GFS absolutely paralyzes us. 2"/hr rates after the changeover. There is a pretty mean cutoff which is concerning. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Nam is not picking up the widespread moisture like the others. Interesting it has all the hallmarks of a monster. Might be factoring the severe weather potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Nam is not picking up the widespread moisture like the others. Interesting it has all the hallmarks of a monster. Might be factoring the severe weather potential.That is definitely a concern that models love to not pick up. We saw it with this storm. If NAM is picking it up, it is something to consider for sure. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 12z GFS showing a legit Blizzard across portions of KS/NE into NW IA/S MN...Love it Tom when you bring out the blizzard wording. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 GFS FV3 with no more of the 40" or more amounts. Darn I thought for sure those were legitimate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 12Z CMC with 00Z UKIE and EURO https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype&rh=2019022012&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 How’s Ukie? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 How’s Ukie?Don’t have the exact details, but a quick look seems to have it taking a similar track to last night’s run. 989mb SLP over Chicago at Hr 90. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Pretty much goes from the same spot at HR 72 that both the CMC and GFS (Panhandle of OK) to near TRaverse City,MI at HR 96. (where both the GFS and CMC end up The devil is in the details as the CMC takes a much different path than the GFS. No clue on the UKIE with only 24 hr increments. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.