2/23 - 2/24 Central Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[clintbeed1993]

More misery as the heavy band misses 60 miles to my East for the 10th time this winter

[jcwxguy]

GFS blinked south

[Bellona]

I can't complain if I miss this storm after already having the snowiest February on record.

[CentralNebWeather]

Well shoot, now GFS moves south. NAM north, looks like watching the radar tomorrow.

[jcwxguy]

Less then a 10:1 ratio

[gosaints]

This is gonna be a concrete mixer

[jcwxguy]

Fv3

[gabel23]

Rdps

Looking at the northern part of the heaviest snow band as it dissects south central Nebraska; that sob stays south of the Platte River going off towards Iowa. Today’s snow in Holdrege stayed north of the river. I’m telling you guys the Platte River can effect weather just as a lake can. When storms hit here the heaviest always occurs either to the north or south; that is from old generation farmers and I might start buying into it.

[CentralNebWeather]

Fv3

The FV3 only a few days ago gave me 24” and this run gives me 0.7. Not exactly a model to put your trust in. Wow.

[Money]

NAM/GFS both give southern WI .25-.75 of ice tomorrow

[Stormhunter87]

GFS blinked south

Oh man!

[gabel23]

I’m making a prediction, and I am hopeful....That blizzard warning has to get extended from Imperial Nebraska up through Sioux Falls. That dry air will either win out, storms rob us from the southeast, or every major model will agree that heavy band will be wider than we think.

[Stormhunter87]

Wpc is starting to up the amounts and oax is inching them up.

[CentralNebWeather]

[Hawkeye]

It should be a fun six hours for southeast NE through southeast MN.

 

As expected 3-5 days ago, the low will move right over southeast Iowa.

[Niko]

Some wacky weather for MBY is definitely in the cards. Severe weather followed by snowshowers and very windy conditions w temps falling into the teens late Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours. Slippery travel likely in hvy squalls.

[snowstorm83]

It's super hard not to get excited right now even though I shouldn't. 

[gosaints]

It's super hard not to get excited right now even though I shouldn't.

sure u should we r weenies. Weenies gonna weenie.

[erburns18]

I'm still not buying in until the snow is falling

[gabel23]

I loved hearing dean wysocki mentioning a small shift north and west in the models. His snow totals shows I-80 corridor getting drilled and the rest of south central Nebraska in moderate snow. I think tomorrow is gonna be an awesome day for a lot of us.

[Minny_Weather]

Getting freezing drizzle right now. Main roads are fine but my parking lot is getting shitty. Will only get worse thru the night. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Getting freezing drizzle right now. Main roads are fine but my parking lot is getting shitty. Will only get worse thru the night.

We’ve had a fair amount of ice. My slanted sidewalk was pretty hard to even stand up on. I think main roads are okay with temps so close to freezing

[CentralNebWeather]

I loved hearing dean wysocki mentioning a small shift north and west in the models. His snow totals shows I-80 corridor getting drilled and the rest of south central Nebraska in moderate snow. I think tomorrow is gonna be an awesome day for a lot of us.

Is that on his Twitter page or somewhere else? All I see in the models is a south trend so it is good to hear a meteorologist mention north and west.

[CentralNebWeather]

Roads are horrible here. Multiple accidents south of town on 183 and streets are like glass.

[OmahaSnowFan]

It's super hard not to get excited right now even though I shouldn't.

Literally every model now has Omaha to Lincoln with 8-15” of snow. This is about as good as it gets. Now it’s up to Mother Nature to deliver!

[jcwxguy]

Is that on his Twitter page or somewhere else? All I see in the models is a south trend so it is good to hear a meteorologist mention north and west.

on the newscast

[CentralNebWeather]

on the newscast

Thanks

[hlcater]

I’m more interested in the tornado event in AR/MS

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie seems slower..... more wrapped up earlier.

[Stormhunter87]

I’m more interested in the tornado event in AR/MS

That's the wildcard for us. Models don't do a good job accounting for that.

[gosaints]

That's the wildcard for us. Models don't do a good job accounting for that.

I get what you are saying but I think he is alluding to the fact that he is a severe weather guy

[Stormhunter87]

I get what you are saying but I think he is alluding to the fact that he is a severe weather guy

Oh ik lol im loving this storm but im very interested in the severe weather potential tomorrow.

[Minny_Weather]

We ain't getting over a foot from this thing. Models are failing to account for the fact that our moisture will be slightly limited by the severe wx event in Dixie alley. Not doubting that we could see isolated areas over 10", but I'd say a widespread maximum of 8-9" is more likely.

[gabel23]

We ain't getting over a foot from this thing. Models are failing to account for the fact that our moisture will be slightly limited by the severe wx event in Dixie alley. Not doubting that we could see isolated areas over 10", but I'd say a widespread maximum of 8-9" is more likely.

Agree. I think we see a wider deformation zone with 6-8" within that area. I think areas along the I-80 corridor stand on seeing totals approaching that. Another thing to take into account is do we see convection wrapping into the cold sector tomorrow? If so then areas closest to the main area of low pressure will see a period of enhanced snow rates. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

I was thinking someone posted about not being able to see the Ukie’s temps, but on this site it lets you pick 2m temperature. Also has winds and precipitation as well.... Right now it only has the 0Z precip maps out but still has 12Z temps and winds.

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=024&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=024&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

[East Dubzz]

We ain't getting over a foot from this thing. Models are failing to account for the fact that our moisture will be slightly limited by the severe wx event in Dixie alley. Not doubting that we could see isolated areas over 10", but I'd say a widespread maximum of 8-9" is more likely.

I think it’ll have to do more with the pace of the storm than limited moisture.

[Minny_Weather]

I think it’ll have to do more with the pace of the storm than limited moisture.

I'm not concerned about the moisture, I just think it's a given here. Most local mets as well as OAX have accounted for that in their forecast. I'm not concerned about the pace either. If anything it's slowed down compared to what we had a couple days ago.

[jcwxguy]

Jim flowers mentioned dry air showing up in models just to our east. Hopefully it doesn't go any farther west

[jcwxguy]

Ukie

[FarmerRick]

Gonna be tough to measure snow depths with 50mph gusts and compaction.