March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[epiceast]

Oregon snowpack #s are overstated, at least east of the cascades. All the snotel sites in central & eastern oregon are 4-5k' low elevation stuff, above 5k it's normal amounts since cold February/March has no effect on them.

[Front Ranger]

You watch... the stations out here will be above normal for the month when the data updates.

 

SEA will be the warmest in the region. JUST WATCH.

[Jesse]

Oregon snowpack #s are overstated, at least east of the cascades. All the snotel sites in central & eastern oregon are 4-5k' low elevation stuff, above 5k it's normal amounts since cold February/March has no effect on them.

This doesn’t make any sense. Those NRCS maps are pretty good. There is also scientific methodology to the siting of snotel stations so runoff can be accurately predicted.

[TT-SEA]

SEA will be the warmest in the region. JUST WATCH.

Maybe so... and its been warm in King County. Aided by 3 crazy warm days and nights. That actually happened.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like OLM is in line for their second driest March on record, second only to the ridiculous .48" from March 1965. Nothing at all like 1997, that's for sure (that was the wettest March on record with over 11").

 

Also second driest for SEA after 1965.

 

BLI is looking at their third driest March on record, after 1965 and 1992.

 

Seattle WFO, with records only back to 1986, will most likely see their driest on record.

[Front Ranger]

Maybe so... and its been warm in King County. Aided by 3 crazy warm days and nights. That actually happened.

 

Of course it did. 

 

Doesn't change the fact that anomalies are almost always exaggerated to the warm side at SEA, whenever it's dry with lots of sun. Which consistently makes it a warm outlier for the region.

[epiceast]

This doesn’t make any sense. Those NRCS maps are pretty good. There is also scientific methodology to the siting of snotel stations so runoff can be accurately predicted.

these 200%+ are all 4-4.5k'. No high elevation sites east of the crest... Except for two Wallowas sites at 7.5k but they are not representative(east slopes in the shadow). I mean maybe this is a case of correlation doesn't equal causation(and NRCS does actual aerial surveys, not just snotel data), but snowpack would be average by april 15th when these mid elevation sites melt off.

[ShawniganLake]

Our magnolia tree...

I think my magnolia is actually ahead of yours

 

[Phil]

651D7566-EF70-4024-A4A6-E176BB7C091C.png

Lol. SEA is a joke.

[Phil]

Looks like OLM is in line for their second driest March on record, second only to the ridiculous .48" from March 1965. Nothing at all like 1997, that's for sure (that was the wettest March on record with over 11").

 

Also second driest for SEA after 1965.

 

BLI is looking at their third driest March on record, after 1965 and 1992.

 

Seattle WFO, with records only back to 1986, will most likely see their driest on record.

Not how analogs work.

 

Not that you were suggesting otherwise, but others might think you were.

[TT-SEA]

Lol. SEA is a joke.

 

 

After today... HQM on the the WA coast will be +1.2 and WFO SEA will be around +0.8   

 

SEA is pretty much in line and in the same area that has been persistently warm.

 

Its not UHI this month.    Its the pattern for the last 2 weeks.

[Phil]

Trees are leafing out now in North Bend...

 

Almost defies logic how much farther along you are compared to here. Every year. Just took these (sun has set so kinda dark)..brown sticks with a few buds. Looks like winter.

 

[TT-SEA]

Western WA has been the warm spot across the entire West for the last 2 weeks...

 

[TT-SEA]

Almost defies logic how much farther along you are compared to here. Every year. Just took these (sun has set so kinda dark)..brown sticks with a few buds. Looks like winter.

 

 

 

 

I assume its the lack of deep dormancy here.   And ironically... all the snow probably helped during the cold period.  

[Phil]

After today... HQM on the the WA coast will be +1.2 and WFO SEA will be around +0.8

 

SEA is pretty much in line and in the same area that has been persistently warm.

 

Its not UHI this month. Its the pattern for the last 2 weeks.

SEA is the warmest in the region. There’s always UHI.

 

Stop denying reality. It’s literally the *only* reason I troll you, dude. You construct these weird narratives that have no basis in science or data and hyperbolically defend them to the death.

[Phil]

[Phil]

In other words, SEA is a UHI skewed mess unrepresentative of 95% of the lowland PNW (except the downtown concrete jungle and Tim’s backyard).

[TT-SEA]

[ewnichols25]

Beautiful day in Kirkland with thunderstorms building over to the west.

[TT-SEA]

Yep... been really cold. Everything is still brown with lots of snow around.

 

I don't give a crap what you say about SEA... its been warm.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

[TT-SEA]

There was all time monthly record highs and max lows for 3 days in a row in the middle of the month in places exposed to downslope warming. Like SEA and HQM.

 

That skewed the averages there this month and not in many other places.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Yesterday ended up being perfect tempature wise for kayaking. Kayak trip from Ollala to Blake island was 9 miles and took about 3 hours. Saw some porpoises and bald eagles and deer around the island. (Was hoping to see some orcas but no luck). Wanted to head out and kayak since it looks a pattern change is coming in our weather.

 

This is torture to read but sounds like an awesome trip!!  I'm on the home stretch for getting my Bachelor's degree, so no kayaking for me until that gets done (mid-June).  I only made it out twice last summer, and about the same the summer before that.  Already told my family that once I'm done they won't see much of me, and my kayak will be in the water so much it will probably have barnacles by the end of summer  I'm in the market for a TDI Sportwagen (graduation gift to myself) to make venturing to different paddle venues much easier!  I need to venture down that way.  I've heard there is a couple of areas that tugboats frequent, and that its a blast to surf their wakes.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Apparently a “good mix” for you means building drought conditions!

 

2EB44DE6-2A75-4D51-BF0E-1C67B8FBA67F.png

 

Still abnormally dry, but not drought, in Southern California. If we could get a decent El Nino next winter, unlike the last one's dud down here, we could have a totally white map for California.

[Phil]

I had no clue noaa-wrh plotted CWOP data in this format.

 

I feel so “official” looking at my data this way.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

[El_Nina]

My melanin levels are already increasing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Such an amazing day today. I got nothing done in the yard, but it turned out better than expected. Had an old childhood friend come by and we just talked the day away while the kids played in the yard. The deer came right up into the lawn too and the kids got a kick out of that. This is definitely my favorite season. 

[jcmcgaffey]

There’s no denying it at this point so far this spring has felt really dry and warm so far. It has felt like summer the past 3-4 weeks. I don’t ever remember spring feeling like that this early and for this long.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There’s no denying it at this point so far this spring has felt really dry and warm so far. It has felt like summer the past 3-4 weeks. I don’t ever remember spring feeling like that this early and for this long.

 

This has felt like a fairly normal spring here outside of 1 very warm week. I guess Spring 2015 and 2016 were radically different up there?

[jcmcgaffey]

This has felt like a fairly normal spring here outside of 1 very warm week. I guess Spring 2015 and 2016 were radically different up there?

. That may be. I feel like every spring I am ready for warm sunny weather but this spring so far I have not felt like that. I’m sure it will turn around in April but when was the last time we have had a march this dry and warm?

[Jesse]

Such an amazing day today. I got nothing done in the yard, but it turned out better than expected. Had an old childhood friend come by and we just talked the day away while the kids played in the yard. The deer came right up into the lawn too and the kids got a kick out of that. This is definitely my favorite season.

We were up on the Little North Santiam today. Gorgeous up there. Was surprised how much farther along the leafing out was in Salem area as opposed to the Portland area on our way down.

[TT-SEA]

. That may be. I feel like every spring I am ready for warm sunny weather but this spring so far I have not felt like that. I’m sure it will turn around in April but when was the last time we have had a march this dry and warm?

This month has actually been below normal down there. Definitely dry... but it has not been a warm month overall except for a few areas.

[Phil]

Decent storminess on the 12z ECMWF associated with the extended jet.

 

Multiple fronts with precipitation starting ~ D5.

 

[jcmcgaffey]

This month has actually been below normal down there. Definitely dry... but it has not been a warm month overall except for a few areas.

ya I saw all the maps above but it has just felt different this year from past early springs.

[Omegaraptor]

MTD precip for PDX is 1.54".

 

The fifth driest March on record is 1.53".

[MossMan]

Today was perfection!

[TacomaWaWx]

This April is starting to look like last April...well might be a overstatement last April was record wet it would be surprising if we matched last April this year. Plus we only have an idea of what the first week of the month may look like at this point. Could end up being mostly dry like this month but hopefully not.

Very interesting stretch of weather we have had after the record cold for about 40 days we’ve had nearly 20 days above average temps. Not very much above average fairly close but still just a flip of the script. It’s been nice having all of this warmer weather recently.

[Jesse]

This April is starting to look like last April...well might be a overstatement last April was record wet it would be surprising if we matched last April this year. Plus we only have an idea of what the first week of the month may look like at this point. Could end up being mostly dry like this month but hopefully not.

Very interesting stretch of weather we have had after the record cold for about 40 days we’ve had nearly 20 days above average temps. Not very much above average fairly close but still just a flip of the script. It’s been nice having all of this warmer weather recently.

Last April turned very warm and dry after the first half of the month. Then it basically stayed that way until late October.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We were up on the Little North Santiam today. Gorgeous up there. Was surprised how much farther along the leafing out was in Salem area as opposed to the Portland area on our way down.

 

I haven't noticed any trees leafed out. Just budding. I was shocked by Tim's pics from tropical North Bend. But to be honest I don't pay much attention. It's spring, the trees .leaf out...Happens every year.