March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[epiceast]

You guys know if you keep the airport and downslope trolling going on, Jesse's backyard won't see any of that Eurosnow on the ground this week.

[Jesse]

You guys know if you keep the airport and downslope trolling going on, Jesse's backyard won't see any of that Eurosnow on the ground this week.

Pendleton radar shows me doing quite well. Hopefully I will have enough snow on the ground to be cold enough, though...

[epiceast]

Pendleton radar shows me doing quite well. Hopefully I will have enough snow on the ground to be cold enough, though...

PDT radar hasn't failed once last month, and neither has PDX seen a metro wide snowfall. maybe if the technicians slack off on the maintenance you might have a chance at scoring snow however.

[Phil]

Historic cold wave with that pattern. Probably the biggest cold wave since Feb. 1899 in parts of the plains & deep south. That was actually the southernmost excursion of the stratospheric polar vortex in the modern reanalysis era. I believe the southern edge (defined by whatever metrics they use) traversed the Carolinas.

The TPV (in essence, a tropospheric tentacle vortex which is climatologically coupled to the *actual* polar vortex in the stratosphere during the cold season) did indeed break off and was driven into the Carolinas.

 

But the PV itself was still intact (in the stratosphere). It took a decent hit, but remained together over Southern Canada.

[HighlandExperience]

18z RGEM, timing agrees mostly with ICON, UKMET and EURO. Sadly the timing sucks, looks like a few hours of wet non sticking snow through the late afternoon into early evening. Might get some small accumulations with whatever is left after sunset.

 

Possibly wet snow up here in Puget Sound. If we get luck we might get 1-3 inches. That would put a bow tie on this winter for us !

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice to see some folks north of me actually getting rather impressive March temperatures. Can't say the same for my area.

I'm rather average, at first glance.

[El_Nina]

Hit a low of 25 this morning, which is impressive considering the wind never really fully went away.

 

33 with bluebird skies and strong winds now.

Hit 23 here this morning with a slight breeze as well. I'd imagine itw was quite a bit more windy at your place tho.

[Phil]

And reporting 100% accurate stats in my area on a forum for PNW weather is attacked by a man 3,000 miles away who is, ironically, the biggest offender in the history of this forum for making up stats. And lying in general.

I never make up weather stats. Ever.

 

All of my weather data is streamed live, archived, and is available in my signature at this link:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDBETHE62&cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash#history

 

I’m also on MesoWest:

 

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F3819&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

 

So, you’re the one making s**t up.

 

Like 95-degree dewpoints

^^ Lie.

 

and 200 mph winds

^^ Lie.

 

and living at Stampede Pass.

Haha, alright this is true, but keep in mind it was 2009 and I was 16 years old. It was literally a decade ago...the only reason I remember it is because you keep bringing it up when cornered.

 

Amazing that you can remember decades-old weather forum drama like it was yesterday. At least you probably won’t have to worry about Alzheimer’s or dementia!

 

And who will spend the summer posting in our forum about the crippling humidity in DC. Go figure.

Dude, you probably have the world record for most online complains about rain in all of human history. I’m dead serious here..don’t start this.

[TT-SEA]

Phil is riled up now... success!   He has been on a roll lately and seems to be obsessed with me.  

 

The most famous liar on the forum should not throw stones at someone reporting actual conditions in their area on weather forum that includes their area.  

[GHweatherChris]

Weather must be boring, the Phil and Tim show is starting way earlier than normal this year!!

[Jesse]

PDX steady at 42...

[Timmy Supercell]

Dude, you probably have the world record for most online complains about rain in all of human history. I’m dead serious here..don’t start this.

 

Well, rain and humidity are two entirely different things, and rain in the PNW is never quite the same animal. Sometimes it's the most pleasurable thing known and other times it's the most disturbing thing. 

[TT-SEA]

PDX steady at 42...

 

 

46/31 at SEA today.  

 

Wind is out of the north there now and not the east... so maybe it will be calmer this evening and a new low temp will be established before midnight.  

[Bryant]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some temps from today.

 

PDX: 43/29

SLE: 46/25

EUG: 43/23

 

Highs

 

The Dalles: 28

Redmond: 21

Pendleton: 19

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Only got to 43 lol.  Would be like 19 in Jan.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A few records from this morning.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
1219 PM PST MON MAR 04 2019

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 4 SET AT SEVERAL SITES TODAY...

LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD (YEAR) RECORDS BEGAN
----------------------------------------------------------------
ASTORIA 26 27 (1955) 1892
HILLSBORO 22 25 (2015) 1929
EUGENE 23 25 (1923) 1892

 

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1055 AM PST MON MAR 4 2019

...NEW DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 4TH...

NOTE: STATIONS MARKED WITH * INDICATE THAT THE STATION REPORTS ONCE
PER DAY. FOR CONSISTENCY...THESE VALUES ARE CONSIDERED TO HAVE
OCCURRED ON THE DAY THE OBSERVATION WAS TAKEN BUT MAY HAVE ACTUALLY
OCCURRED (ESPECIALLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE) ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.

STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS
RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN

*LONG CREEK, OR 12 / 2015 12 (TIED) 1908
*MORO, OR 10 / 1960 8 1897
*PELTON DAM, OR 17 / 1960 16 1958
*SISTERS, OR 12 / 1967 9 1958
THE DALLES, OR 15 / 1960 8 1929
*GOLDENDALE, WA 7 / 1955 1 1905
*KENNEWICK, WA 14 / 1896 8 1884

 

[Front Ranger]

It is.

 

And I said the ECMWF was right about it being more impressive to the south as well.

Outside of SEA and North Bend, you'll find plenty of places in the Puget Sound region where it's been impressive.

[Esquimalt]

How does the 18Z euro look??

[Jesse]

A little more spread on the long range 18z GFS ensemble compared to the 12z, but still hints of a warm up.

 

[Front Ranger]

I always report SEA. And the stats in my area. Like most people who report on PDX and the stats in their backyard in the Portland area. Exact same thing.

 

That is true.

You have absolutely reported on other stations when it fit your narrative.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hey guys just wanted to say I am at orcas island up in the San Juan’s right now spending the next 2 days here.. unbelievable sights and views with this weather very crisp cold though about 42 here right at sea level. something very interesting today I went up to about 800ft elevation on mt.constitution...there’s a good 8-10 inches of snow at mountain lake in the forest still..also there’s downed trees everywhere you can look in the forests that’s very recent big trees and Limbs all scattered around from recent storms this winter tomorrow am going to hike up to the top of the mountain to see how much snow they have on the top should be pretty interesting! Just thought it would be interesting to share with everybody how much snow there is at Mt.constitution

[Front Ranger]

Monthly departures for February at SEA NWS reporting stations:

 

BLI -8.3

OLM -7.4

SEA -6.7

UIL -5.3

HQM -1.5

 

 

You would expect BLI to be colder being closer to the cold air source last month. Maybe SEA is 1 degree warmer due to UHI.

 

So maybe it would have been 30 last night at SEA if this happened 100 years ago... instead of 31. Big deal.

UHI is much more a factor at SEA during the warm season and during sunny days.

[Kayla]

That's incredible. That even beats the -36 at Fort Ellis in the March 1870 cold wave. 

 

Bozeman MSU reading just came in at -30 this morning. Coldest March reading on record beating out 1932 with records going back to 1892. This mornings reading is the coldest temp at MSU since December 1990. Incredibly historic airmass aided by a historic snowpack.

 

Also looks like BZN pulled off a -53 departure today. Do you know what the lower 48 negative departure record is?

[Phil]

Phil is riled up now... success! He has been on a roll lately and seems to be obsessed with me.

 

The most famous liar on the forum should not throw stones at someone reporting actual conditions in their area on weather forum that includes their area.

I wish I had the ability to construct an alternate reality (and actually believe it) whenever my psyche comes under pressure from uncontrollable outside forces.

 

You gave a gift, my friend.

[TT-SEA]

You have absolutely reported on other stations when it fit your narrative.

 

 

But I always report on SEA and North Bend.   Which makes sense of course.

 

Like everyone else on the forum... people report on stats outside of their area when it interests them.     Absolutely crazy.   

[TT-SEA]

I wish I had the ability to construct an alternate reality (and actually believe it) whenever my psyche comes under pressure from uncontrollable outside forces.

 

You gave a gift, my friend.

 

 

You are actually the one person here who did in fact create an alternate reality and then attacked everyone for questioning him.   And then was proven to be a liar.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bozeman MSU reading just came in at -30 this morning. Coldest March reading on record beating out 1932 with records going back to 1892. This mornings reading is the coldest temp at MSU since December 1990. Incredibly historic airmass aided by a historic snowpack.

 

Also looks like BZN pulled of a -53 departure today. Do you know what the lower 48 negative departure record is?

 

So that is essentially the equivalent of PDX having a mean temp of -7 today. 

[TT-SEA]

UHI is much more a factor at SEA during the warm season and during sunny days.

 

 

It does seem that way.   

 

So reporting on the temp there last night... as Jim did as well... was pertinent and in accordance with what we have done on here since 2005.    

 

Like Jesse reporting on PDX nearly every day for the last 15 years.  

[Front Ranger]

But I always report on SEA and North Bend. Which makes sense of course.

 

Like everyone else on the forum... people report on stats outside of their area when it interests them. Absolutely crazy.

Yes, but not when they don't fit your narrative. Then you look elsewhere. Right now you're in downplay mode, and SEA fits.

 

And it's not so much that you're just reporting SEA and North Bend. It's that you're inferring their numbers mean it's not an impressive air mass for the west side. Which is just not true.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Departures today.

 

EUG -12

PDX -10

SLE -9

 

SLE just missed their record low by 1 degree this morning. Record lows are a little lower tomorrow morning, so it'll be close at EUG and SLE, PDX likely will not be near their record.

 

SLE: 23

EUG: 22

PDX: 19

 

Those are the numbers to beat tomorrow morning. 

[Kayla]

So that is essentially the equivalent of PDX having a mean temp of -7 today. 

 

Yeah...nuts. The mean was -21F at BZN today...in March!

[TT-SEA]

Yeah...nuts. The mean was -21F at BZN today...in March!

 

 

That is not very impressive.  

 

SEA had a -6 departure for the day with and average temp of 38.5... and it was 44/30 here today for an average temp of 37.

 

Don't even try to compete with us for impressiveness.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Updated AFD from NWS PDX:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Portland OR

323 PM PST Mon Mar 4 2019

 

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and chilly conditions continue through Tuesday under clear skies for most of the area. Light precipitation then begins to spread into the region late Tuesday into the form of light snow along and east of the coastal mountains, with the best chances remaining over the Cascades and southern Willamette Valley. Unsettled weather continues with shower chances and snow levels around 1000 feet late in the week. A warming and drying trend is then expected early next week.

 

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Not much change to the pattern for the next 24 hours as clear skies and cool temperatures continue to be the main weather story. Meanwhile, gusty east winds continue through the western gorge and into the far eastern portions of the Portland metro area.

 

The pattern then begins to change during the day on Tuesday as two upper level lows approach the region: one from the Gulf of Alaska, and the other from the southwest. The latter of these lows begins to advance inland near northern California will lead ahead, turning the upper flow more southwesterly across the region. The majority of the moisture looks to move into southwestern Oregon and lift north into Lane County late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening, with most of the moisture in the eastern two-thirds of the county (that is, generally east of the Coast Range). As the northern upper low approaches, however, this will lift the moisture north and northeastward across the region.

 

With relatively dry air in place ahead of this system, it will likely take some time for the precipitation to reach the surface, but it will likely begin as rain in the southern Willamette Valley as it begins. However, the forecast quickly becomes quite a bit more complicated into the overnight hours. The near-surface air will likely cool below freezing with increasing precipitation, but latest model guidance continues to suggest a warm (above freezing) layer in the lower layers. This shallow layer may be sufficiently deep to melt the falling snow and then allow it to re-freeze at the surface. As a result, have included a chance of freezing rain in portions of the southern Willamette Valley (including Eugene) and extending north through Brownsville, Lebanon, and Scio. Again, this is one of more challenging aspects of the forecast, and confidence in the details remains quite low - it is possible that the layer may be deep enough and extend low enough to result in rain, or may be thin enough to not provide sufficient melting. The good part is that moisture looks to be somewhat limited, and any ice accumulation will be little (if any) and snow amounts should remain between a dusting and an inch.

 

Through the northern portions of the Willamette Valley and north through the Portland/Vancouver area, the air mass will likely remain cold enough to remain light snow flurries or snow showers as the moisture works its way north. However, the timing of the arrival will be another important factor to consider. If it takes longer for the precipitation to begin, there may be enough warming to severely limit the potential for accumulating snow. Additionally, the initially very dry air (aided by east flow through the gorge) will further limit the precip rate across the eastern portions of the metro area. By the afternoon, the snow level will generally climb to around 1000 or 1500 feet. However, latest high-resolution guidance does suggest snow levels may initially bounce around. Regardless, can`t rule out a dusting of snow at the lowest elevations and as much as almost an inch of snow in the highest hills. As the pattern will transition more to showers by later in the day Wednesday and into Thursday, the snow level will likely fluctuate at times. Latest guidance has shifted the extent of moisture into southwest Washington as well, but the later arrival should mean mostly only rain showers at the low elevations north of the metro area through Kelso/Longview. For now, have maintained the forecast of shower chances through Thursday, and will need to keep an eye on the evolution of the temperature in the lowest layers of the atmosphere to discern precip type.

[Kayla]

That is not very impressive.  

 

SEA had a -6 departure for the day with and average temp of 38.5... and it was 44/30 here today for an average temp of 37.

 

Don't even try to compete with us for impressiveness.   

 

Sounds lovely!

[Blizzard777]

Beautiful day

44/24

Currently 43*

Dew point 14*

North wind adverage 3 with one gust to 15

[Jesse]

Sounds lovely!

Hmmmm, I’m starting to think that Bozeman may have a colder climate than SEA, and is capable of greater extremes. Another several months of hammering out the details and we could have it down to a science.

[TT-SEA]

Hmmmm, I’m starting to think that Bozeman may have a colder climate than SEA, that is capable of more extremes. Another several months of hammering out the details and we could have it down to a science.

 

 

What is really interesting is that their average high is not that much different than it is here right now.    Which makes it WAY more impressive.  

 

SEA pulled off some serious negative departures of their own in February.    This is weak sauce compared to that... just math.  

 

Disclaimer:  it could be different in other areas!! 

[MossMan]

22 for a low and 42 for a high. Currently 36. Very impressive.

[Front Ranger]

That is not very impressive.  

 

SEA had a -6 departure for the day with and average temp of 38.5... and it was 44/30 here today for an average temp of 37.

 

Don't even try to compete with us for impressiveness.   

 

Lows for other stations in the area:

 

Boeing Field: 23

Renton: 26

Puyallup: 18

Tacoma McChord: 15