bud2380 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 I know it's way overdone and will never pan out, but it's amazing how run after run and model after model keep painting 48"+ for some areas of SW MN and Eastern SD. 12z NAM showing a spot of 54" on a county bordering Eastern SD and western MN. And it's basically the same areas run after run showing the heaviest band of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 The NAM has a lot of mixing in MSP. The NAM also drops very little precip from Ames-Cedar Rapids southward. The euro has 1+" here. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Tom, do you have a total QPF map? Curious what the Euro is showing in that respect. GFS has a soaker around here, but the NAM looks quite different on that front for now.Here you go... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Michael Ventrice's Deep Thunder model is painting a similar picture as the Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 12z GFS continues a trend farther S/SW with the track of the SLP with more blocking to the north....last 4 runs below show the trends nicely. Another noteworthy characteristic from this storm is how deep it gets in KS! For several runs now, it drops down to a 976mb storm...doesn't that sound familiar??? Could we break another record this month for it's strength??? My goodness the atmosphere is primed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Less chance of mixing with these baby steps south on the GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 I'm fine with the south shift now just don't occlude so soon! The storm loses its juice once the Low has swung through my area. I figure since I'm so close to a major blizzard I might as well get into the fun! If not then I guess I'll be back golfing sooner than later! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Here you go...Thanks Tom. NAM much less impressive on the rainfall amounts, but still drops 0.50”. This definitely isn’t going to help with the flooding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 I know it's way overdone and will never pan out, but it's amazing how run after run and model after model keep painting 48"+ for some areas of SW MN and Eastern SD. 12z NAM showing a spot of 54" on a county bordering Eastern SD and western MN. And it's basically the same areas run after run showing the heaviest band of snow. I've heard that The Plains is good chasing.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 I'm still in a state of disbelief. Took a nice walk at lunch and it's nearly 70o with bright warm sunshine. Warmest day since...God only knows when. Of course I recall feeling the same way last April right before the thunderstorm changed to over 2 feet of heavy snow. 3 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 I'm still in a state of disbelief. Took a nice walk at lunch and it's nearly 70o with bright warm sunshine. Warmest day since...God only knows when. Of course I recall feeling the same way last April right before the thunderstorm changed to over 2 feet of heavy snow.My thoughts exactly. Still not convinced this will pan out as modeled, but if it does it’s gonna be a complete shock to the system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Euro almost identical to placement and a tad stronger at hr. 72 as last nights run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Yeah I don’t see any drastic changes on the 12z Euro. Subtle shift in location and intensity but looks steady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Full sampling was with this run correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Full sampling was with this run correct?Full sample should be tomorrow I believe; I think the storm gets onto shore tonight or tomorrow sometime I remember reading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Full sampling was with this run correct?12z tomorrow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Wow the recent Euro run actually increased my snow total; it actually doubled it! We will see what will transpire but just another one of those storms where I'll be right on the line. It looks like someone along the SD/Neb. border is gonna get buried by this thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 From Ryan Maue’s tweet. 10:1 ratio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Incredible snow projections for any time of year, let alone April on the heels of a big warmup. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Looking at the point grid forecasts in eastern South Dakota, and I'm seeing lots of 20" forecasts. Most are 10" Wednesday night and 10" more on Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 What are thermals looking like? For this time of year my best guess would be right around 10-1, maybe a bit lower. Either way this is intriguing, but I refuse to bite after we got a cold rainer instead of a snow solution in March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 What are thermals looking like? For this time of year my best guess would be right around 10-1, maybe a bit lower. Either way this is intriguing, but I refuse to bite after we got a cold rainer instead of a snow solution in March.850s remain below 32F for the entire event up this way. Plenty of cold air filtering in from Ontario...look at that conveyor belt of cold air. 2m temps are marginal at the start but fall fairly quick. With such a dynamic system and intense rates of 1”/hr or more, this could add up fast. Still plenty of wildcards though. Too many to feel confident in a big snow at this point. I think watches are expanded shortly based on the 12z runs. Meanwhile, 68F on the deck right now. Just got done changing the oil in the.....lawnmower. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Anyone got a precip map on the Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Anyone got a precip map on the Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 12z tomorrowRoger thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 As currently modeled, this has a chance to be a top 4 April snowstorm on record for MSP. The largest April storm was last year at 15.8”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 18z develops quiet the band of snow along the highway 81 corridor as the low passes into Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Winter Storm Watch for my area. ..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGHLATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central and south central Nebraska. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees and power lines especially if we see the freezing rain. Road closures during the height of the storm will be possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Not sure if they made an error or what, but right now there’s 12-20” in the point for Wed night and Thursday. And that’s not the entire storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Ummmmm, can someone please explain why my point forecast from the nws has 12-20 in the grids for Wednesday night into Thursday... That seems awful bold, and maybe even irresponsible at this range... I am down for a blockbuster, but I have a hard time seeing that much materialize. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 This is for Marshall, MN. Good god, 21" in the point forecast. Wow. WednesdaySnow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely between 1pm and 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches.Wednesday NightRain likely before 10pm, then rain and snow likely between 10pm and 11pm, then snow after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after 1am. Low around 29. Blustery, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 7 inches.ThursdaySnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 7am, then areas of blowing snow after 8am. High near 32. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 11 inches 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 La crosse taking a cautious approach as they should riding the thermal edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 NWS Hastings talking ice, blizzard, possible road closures. Wednesday night...The 12/18Z NAM and 12Z ECMWF very quickly coolour surface temperatures off Wednesday night and seem reasonable.Therefore, lowered hourly temperatures below the overallsuperblend of models to account for these sub-freezingtemperatures to move in more quickly. Assuming this happens wewill see more freezing rain across our northwestern zones and someice amounts could climb to over two tenths of an inch. The primaryconcern with the ice will be the power lines and trees given theexpected strong winds. It could take many hours and really allnight before the warm nose of air around 700 mb cools enough forice to transition into snow across northwestern zones.Southeastern zones will likely just see rain throughout thenight. Keep up to date on the latest forecast as the storm trackbecomes more clear and we can better define the snow/ice/rainareas. Thursday...The height of the storm will impact the region duringthe day on Thursday. Storm track is everything and confidence inblizzard conditions is highest across our northwest so we startedwith a winter storm watch for these areas, but could possiblyexpand this watch further south if 12Z ECMWF model trendscontinue. This has the potential to be a major blizzard forportions of Nebraska on Thursday especially northwest of BeaverCity, Kearney, and Saint Paul line. This line will likely shiftsome in the coming days depending on the storm track so keep up todate with the latest forecast. This storm very well could onceagain close some roads across Nebraska due to blizzard conditionson Thursday, so pay attention to www.511.nebraska.gov for thelatest road conditions. The snow will be decreasing by Thursdaynight, but windy conditions are expected right into Fridaymorning. Friday...The snow will have ended and highs should once againclimb to above freezing but blowing snow may linger in some of theharder hit areas during the morning hours. Storm total snowfallamounts of 4 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts will bepossible over the winter storm watch area. Little if any snow isexpected across our southeastern zones around Beloit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Here's Mitchell, SD point forecast: 21 inches Wednesday NightRain before 8pm, then rain and snow between 8pm and 11pm, then snow after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Low around 30. Windy, with a northeast wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 9 inches.ThursdaySnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly between 10am and 3pm. High near 32. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 12 inches. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 My in-laws live in delmont, SD. Point forecast is 20" there 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 This is nuts. My local grid is calling for 1-3" or more of wet snow Wednesday nite w temps at 32F. So much for having my grass fertilized. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Already many school activities being moved up from Thursday to beat the storm. Our school had track, soccer, tennis, and golf scheduled for Thursday. Crazy winter/spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Stellar write up by MPX this afternoon. They’re going with 7-15” for now with gusts up to 50mph. Gotta love April blizzards. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 Interesting how moist the thing is looking even not the warmer areas. I don't envy la crosse in this forecast. They are gonna have a tough one barring any further jog south which would seem unlikely given climo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 18z GFS dropping over 3” of rain here haha. I’d assume that’s the most aggressive model. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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