May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Satellite rainfall estimates from May 2018 across BC, juxtaposed on the model precipitation forecasts, suggest that is physically impossible.

 

Just like forest fires raging under snowpack all winter is physically impossible. Even in BC.

Shawnigan Lake had 0.56” of rain last May. 12Z GFS for YYJ, which is about 10miles from here, shows 0.36” of rain through the 30th. Not saying it will verify but it is what it is showing.

[Jesse]

Shawnigan Lake had 0.56” of rain last May. 12Z GFS for YYJ, which is about 10miles from here, shows 0.36” of rain through the 30th. Not saying it will verify but it is what it is showing.

Phil has oversold this wetter period in typical dramatic fashion, but at the same time it seems like you’ve been going out of your way to highlight model trends that go against his predictions, which have been good overall minus the sensationalistic stuff.

[ShawniganLake]

Phil has oversold this wetter period in typical dramatic fashion, but at the same time it seems like you’ve been going out of your way to highlight model trends that go against his predictions, which have been good overall minus the sensationalistic stuff.

Probably a fair assessment. He has kind of pissed me off by saying what I have said is untrue, when it wasn’t. And misrepresentating factual information I have posted in the past. The type of stuff that would probably throw him into a full meltdown.

 

Picked up just a little more than 1/10th of an inch of rain this morning. Patches of blue sky and sunshine moving in now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully you count me among the first category.

 

I do. You often talk about the weather. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really enjoy rain this time of year. It is almost as if you can watch the life being breathed back into the earth. 

[Tenochtitlan]

Satellite rainfall estimates from May 2018 across BC, juxtaposed on the model precipitation forecasts, suggest that is physically impossible.

 

Just like forest fires raging under snowpack all winter is physically impossible. Even in BC.

https://themtnear.com/2018/04/winter-wildfires-smolder-in-duff/

 

https://www.brainerddispatch.com/news/3985986-dnr-urges-checking-winters-burn-piles-smoldering-ash-can-reignite-spring-winds

 

https://www.capjournal.com/news/mn-forest-fire-started-from-coals-smoldering-all-winter-in/article_f6bae7ca-ebb0-11e4-89f9-430a3e7b1b2a.html

 

Just had to chime in--you should be careful about saying things are physically impossible when a quick Google search will give you lots of examples proving otherwise!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice drippy morning in the south valley.  Much-needed.

[Jesse]

I really enjoy rain this time of year. It is almost as if you can watch the life being breathed back into the earth.

Agreed, gorgeous day. The smell is so nice too.

[Blizzard777]

Vitamin D will come in the form of a pill for a couple weeks.

Very light rain

.11 so far and 57*

Rip City fever in a few hours

[Jesse]

The pattern over Europe next week is coming more into focus. Looking milder than it’s been recently, but still unsettled. Would be cool to see some thunderstorms, looks like a good pattern for them. Although I would like at least a day or two of clear weather at times while we’re staying in the Alps so that the mountains will be visible.

 

Back here at home, the Euro wants to lock us into a nice troughy pattern through day 10.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The pattern over Europe next week is coming more into focus. Looking milder than it’s been recently, but still unsettled. Would be cool to see some thunderstorms, looks like a good pattern for them. Although I would like at least a day or two of clear weather at times while we’re staying in the Alps so that the mountains will be visible.

 

Back here at home, the Euro wants to lock us into a nice troughy pattern through day 10.

 

Plz post constantly while on vacation. In fact if possible please just stay in the hotel so as not to lose the WiFi signal. 

[MossMan]

Currently 48 degrees with light rain here in Skykomish.

[Timmy Supercell]

Moderate rain falling here in K-Falls.

 

Nice day.

[Jesse]

Plz post constantly while on vacation. In fact if possible please just stay in the hotel so as not to lose the WiFi signal.

Yes of course. I will have to keep everyone constantly posted on my thoughts on the weather at home and there and how glad/not glad I am to be missing it, lest the narrative here slip from being completely centered around my opinion for even a few days. Scary thought.

[Timmy Supercell]

Of course KLMT has yet to record any measurable precip. Why do I even get surprised anymore.

 

.....

 

Plz post constantly while on vacation. In fact if possible please just stay in the hotel so as not to lose the WiFi signal. 

 

   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 48 degrees with light rain here in Skykomish.

 

Looks like a cute little town. Is there good fishing in the river?

 

Just looked up their climate. They average more precip and snow than I do. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Currently 48 degrees with light rain here in Skykomish.

 

That looks like a place to add to my list of eventual travels!

[MossMan]

Looks like a cute little town. Is there good fishing in the river?

 

Just looked up their climate. They average more precip and snow than I do.

It does seem like a great little town!

Good question about the fishing on the Skykomish...I don’t keep up with the river fisheries so I’m not sure. They do great in the snow department, way better than just 5 miles west on HWY 2 I have noticed.

[TT-SEA]

Doubt it will work out... but a progression like the 12Z ECMWF shows would be perfect.    Precip is basically done by day 8 and it would set the stage for a beautiful Memorial Day weekend.

 

12Z EPS seems to agree with this scenario.

[Front Ranger]

Man, there’s likely to be a huge severe weather outbreak across the Plains this weekend. Big daddy stuff. The new CIPS analog package is full of the super nasty years, like 2011 and 1995.

 

Certainly looks more noteworthy than the “seasonably-favorable” narrative our Colorado native concocted.

 

I literally quoted the SPC.

 

And I am a Colorado resident, but not native. The "natives" here take it really seriously!

[Front Ranger]

Probably a fair assessment. He has kind of pissed me off by saying what I have said is untrue, when it wasn’t. And misrepresentating factual information I have posted in the past. The type of stuff that would probably throw him into a full meltdown.

 

Yeah, the fact that Phil loves to throw out the "flatironing" copout all the time yet does exactly what you said is pretty funny.

[Front Ranger]

The pattern over Europe next week is coming more into focus. Looking milder than it’s been recently, but still unsettled. Would be cool to see some thunderstorms, looks like a good pattern for them. Although I would like at least a day or two of clear weather at times while we’re staying in the Alps so that the mountains will be visible.

 

Hopefully you have the same luck I had traveling Europe last September - a nice mix of sunshine, storms, and generally comfortable weather to get out and explore.

 

Staying in Germany the whole time?

[Cloud]

Cool day today. Currently 57F, be curious to see if SEA will get to 60F. 

[Jesse]

Hopefully you have the same luck I had traveling Europe last September - a nice mix of sunshine, storms, and generally comfortable weather to get out and explore.

 

Staying in Germany the whole time?

Yes, we will be staying with my second cousin in Berlin the first few days. Then taking the train south for a couple nights in Bavaria, then the Black Forest. Ending the trip in Trier (near the Luxembourg border) where one of my best friends now lives.

[TacomaWaWx]

We’ve had about a tenth of an inch of rain here so far today with a high of 58 so far. Nice to have some cool rainy weather again.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yes, we will be staying with my second cousin in Berlin the first few days. Then taking the train south for a couple nights in Bavaria, then the Black Forest. Ending the trip in Trier (near the Luxembourg border) where one of my best friends now lives.

Sounds awesome hope you have a great time!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would love to visit Poland. A little too Catholic for my taste, but they seem to have it going on over there.

[Timmy Supercell]

I would love to visit Poland. A little too Catholic for my taste, but they seem to have it going on over there.

 

Pretty much anywhere in Europe I'd like to visit. Plus in my opinion, experiencing different cultures is character building.

I've been an atheist for pretty much all my life and we live in a country with a large majority of Christianity. As long as I don't come across a false christian I've never had an issue.

[Phil]

Fires burn underground through the winter and re emerge when things dry out in the spring. No one ever said raging or open flame. It is quite common if you care to educate yourself look it up.

Underground? Yeah, no.

 

Embers can smolder in dry air pockets where fuel moisture remains dry..but flames don’t burn underground. They’d smother out.

[Phil]

https://themtnear.com/2018/04/winter-wildfires-smolder-in-duff/

 

https://www.brainerddispatch.com/news/3985986-dnr-urges-checking-winters-burn-piles-smoldering-ash-can-reignite-spring-winds

 

https://www.capjournal.com/news/mn-forest-fire-started-from-coals-smoldering-all-winter-in/article_f6bae7ca-ebb0-11e4-89f9-430a3e7b1b2a.html

 

Just had to chime in--you should be careful about saying things are physically impossible when a quick Google search will give you lots of examples proving otherwise!

Smoldering wood embers aren’t flames.

 

I don’t get why this is so hard to grasp?

[Jesse]

I would love to visit Poland. A little too Catholic for my taste, but they seem to have it going on over there.

One of my friends who lives state side is going a few weeks before us and visiting a couple other countries, including Poland. Staying two nights in Warsaw.

[Tenochtitlan]

Smoldering wood embers aren’t flames.

 

I don’t get why this is so hard to grasp?

I don't think anyone was saying they were raging fires in the first place, just that the smoldering embers can hang on underground over winter, and flare up into new fires when spring comes.

[TacomaWaWx]

Some breaks in the clouds with passing showers now. Still drippy and a bit of a SW breeze. Temp at 57 degrees.

[Omegaraptor]

Patch of blue in the sky overhead! Currently 61ºF.

[ShawniganLake]

Underground? Yeah, no.

 

Embers can smolder in dry air pockets where fuel moisture remains dry..but flames don’t burn underground. They’d smother out.

Who said anything about flames. You’re being completely idiotic about this. Coal fires burn underground for decades or longer and at great depths. Google is your friend. For someone who likes to pretend they are really smart I am left to assume you are just trolling at this point. There is really no point in debating that things can or can’t burn underground. It’s just a fact.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A nice shower moving through Salem right now. 

[Jesse]

18z looking wetter in the loung range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z looking wetter in the loung range.

 

Blessings!

[Phil]

I don't think anyone was saying they were raging fires in the first place, just that the smoldering embers can hang on underground over winter, and flare up into new fires when spring comes.

This was my argument the whole time. ShawniganDude told me I was “overthinking it” when I suggested this.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Some heavy soaking rain moving through with a passing shower. Looks like there’s some good cells moving NE on the kitsap peninsula.