May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[The Swamp]

The weekend is starting to not look good at all. I bet we have clouds and showers every day.

 

My Greek god tan is fading.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The weekend is starting to not look good at all. I bet we have clouds and showers every day.

 

My Greek god tan is fading.

Approaching Norse god-status?

[TacomaWaWx]

Wondering what’s going to happen this weekend regarding convective showers. Hopefully it doesn’t cause any fires but it’d be nice to have some decent thunderstorms again.

[TacomaWaWx]

The weekend is starting to not look good at all. I bet we have clouds and showers every day.

 

My Greek god tan is fading.

It’s not even June yet I’m sure your tan will be fine. Will be plenty of sunshine coming up the next 4 months.

[The Swamp]

Approaching Norse god-status?

 

Yes!

[MossMan]

The weekend is starting to not look good at all. I bet we have clouds and showers every day.

 

My Greek god tan is fading.

Going to be a summer without a summer.

[Omegaraptor]

Wondering what’s going to happen this weekend regarding convective showers. Hopefully it doesn’t cause any fires but it’d be nice to have some decent thunderstorms again.

 

6/17/18

[TacomaWaWx]

6/17/18

it’s been more recent than that locally here. Had some good t-storms on 11/27/18. Had some of the largest ice pellets I’ve seen here in Western WA. Good amount of lightning too. Still not close to the power displayed on 5/4/17. There was also one here on 10/28/18.

[ShawniganLake]

I can’t even remember the last decent thunderstorm up here. It’s been years

[Front Ranger]

I can’t even remember the last decent thunderstorm up here. It’s been years

Didn't you have thundersnow in February?

[ShawniganLake]

Didn't you have thundersnow in February?

Not here no. I think snowmiser did.

 

We have had a few t showers here the past few years, but a good light show has been a long time. July 2012 comes to mind, but of course I was out of town.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I can’t even remember the last decent thunderstorm up here. It’s been years

I haven’t experienced one since August of 2005.

[TacomaWaWx]

Not here no. I think snowmiser did.

 

We have had a few t showers here the past few years, but a good light show has been a long time. July 2012 comes to mind, but of course I was out of town.

I remember there being good thunderstorms here as well in July 2012. 7/20/12 in particular. Was a very unfortunate night however because the main reason I remember it was the fact that the Colorado theatre shooting happened that night. There was some thunderstorms I can remember on Father’s Day in 2008 as well that were pretty cool.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Horrible tornado outbreak in NE Oklahoma into Missouri. Jefferson City, MO just got annihilated. 

[jakeinthevalley]

What a perfect Spring day. 70f during the day. Got the lawn mowed and some trimming of the hedges. Rain moved in about sunset to give everything a drink. 75f or so tomorrow. Beautiful!

[TacomaWaWx]

Horrible tornado outbreak in NE Oklahoma into Missouri. Jefferson City, MO just got annihilated.

Yeah this year has had some severe weather outbreaks in the plains. Very very unfortunate hope that everyone on the ground was able to get out of there in time.

[ShawniganLake]

A summer like 77F with clear blue skies here today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful sunset here with the rain moving in 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Bad night in Jeff City, Missouri. Violent tornado blasted right through downtown with multiple confirmed deaths already from unrelated tornadoes. Looks like there were some photos of lightning illuminating what was pretty clearly a large wedge tornado with a debris ball that clubbed the city right through the state capitol. A very long night for a lot of folks in the Show Me State.

 

I will venture a guess that it is probly about EF4 damage or so.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

https://youtu.be/fB83bJNIXl4

 

Good source to hear what’s going on in Missouri.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[BLI snowman]

06z GFS looks hawt.

[Jesse]

06z GFS looks hawt.

Hope to see the Euro trend that way too, it’s been playing catch up with the GFS lately so a possibility. First half of the long weekend has trended really nice since I last checked a few days ago.

[Jesse]

Beautiful day in the Bavarian Alps. Sunny and mid-60s after a low in the mid-30s. Everything is still lush and green from the heavy rain they have had the last few weeks.

 

If anyone is ever in Bavaria and is a fan of narrow river gorges I would highly suggest Breitachklamm. One of the most spectacular I have ever seen. Great loop hike that started and ended at the front porch of our guest house in Kornau.

[Jesse]

I know it’s on the other side of the globe, but a few pictures before I disappear again for a couple days.

 

 

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Shadow of the space needle being casted on a low fog bank...

 

[Farmboy]

I know it’s on the other side of the globe, but a few pictures before I disappear again for a couple days.

 

That's the narrow River gorge you were just talking about? Wow, you weren't kidding. I did the Wire Pass trail on the Utah-Arizona state line on my way up to Idaho, the gorge in your pics looks similar to that slot canyon in many ways.

[The Swamp]

Looking more likely the long weekend will suck donkey b@lls.

 

With each model run it gets cooler and more showery each day.

[TT-SEA]

Looking more likely the long weekend will suck donkey b@lls.

 

With each model run it gets cooler and more showery each day.

 

 

Sunday and Monday still looked nice per the 00Z ECMWF... but its hard to trust after Saturday changed so dramatically.

 

 

 

 

This is the culprit that has been causing all of the model issues for this weekend.   Some runs had it caught up in the Bering Sea trough... but it broke free and its destined to make a mess of Saturday now.   

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cool pics Jesse. 

[Blizzard777]

Shadow of the space needle being casted on a low fog bank...

 

I’m under a fog bank!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Outstanding cooler/wetter trends on the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

I’m under a fog bank!

 

 

Beautiful sunny morning here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Beautiful sunny morning here.

foggy here this morning

[TacomaWaWx]

Outstanding cooler/wetter trends on the GFS.

lol depends on who you ask. Some aren’t quite as happy about it as others.

[Omegaraptor]

One thing I’ve wanted this year is a wet November. But if Phil is right with his analogs, that could mean bad news for fall precipitation.

 

Here are the possible analogs Phil listed in order of accuracy:

 

1997 - wet October, but drier than average November and dry December

2002 - pathetically dry October and November

1978 - pathetically dry OND

1990 - wet October, dry Nov-Dec

1991 - fairly normal fall precip

 

1993 (volcano contaminated but a decent match otherwise) - pathetically dry Oct-Nov

 

The biggest trend here is a dry November. All the best analogs show a dry November.

 

#UhOh

[TacomaWaWx]

One thing I’ve wanted this year is a wet November. But if Phil is right with his analogs, that could mean bad news for fall precipitation.

 

Here are the possible analogs Phil listed in order of accuracy:

 

1997 - wet October, but drier than average November and dry December

2002 - pathetically dry October and November

1978 - pathetically dry OND

1990 - wet October, dry Nov-Dec

1991 - fairly normal fall precip

 

1993 (volcano contaminated but a decent match otherwise) - pathetically dry Oct-Nov

 

The biggest trend here is a dry November. All the best analogs show a dry November.

 

#UhOh

Could still happen you honestly just never know example being this past February. You should hope for a November 2006 repeat or something then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Damp morning. Helps keep the grass green. Blessings!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think I have seen anyone else spit out the analogs Ross and Rachel loving Phil has vomited out.

[Omegaraptor]

Could still happen you honestly just never know example being this past February. You should hope for a November 2006 repeat or something then.

2006 wasn’t a good analog, was it?

 

The three wettest Novembers of the 1980s and 1990s were 1984, 1995, and 1998. I don’t think any of them are good analogs.