ShawniganLake Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Euro looks cooler than the gfs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Euro looks cooler than the gfs.At least its sunny from Friday afternoon basically through the end of run. Weekend looks gorgeous. It shows a little marine layer in the morning on day 10... but that is it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Yeah... the models have over-promised better weather for about a month now. It has to happen eventually. Even years like 1954 and 1983 had considerable stretches of nice weather. It rained on just 1 day in North Bend from 7/22 through 8/13 in 1954. Many considered that to be the year without summer and even that year had a 3-week stretch of dry weather with highs in the mid 70s to around 80. In 1983... it rained on just 3 days from 7/28 through 8/26 here. It has rained on 18 out of the last 28 days here right now... right through the heart of summer. And there are another 3 or 4 days coming up. I feel like it is a copy of the February to March period earlier this year other than it has been a little warmer than average than that period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 At least its sunny from Friday afternoon basically through the end of run. Weekend looks gorgeous. It shows a little marine layer in the morning on day 10... but that is it.Crisis averted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Crisis averted. Hasn't happened yet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Go Euro! Team Euro! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 At least its sunny from Friday afternoon basically through the end of run. Weekend looks gorgeous. It shows a little marine layer in the morning on day 10... but that is it.Nice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Another warm morning out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 The blob is definitely back... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 The blob is definitely back... and that was created without a large ridge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 and that was created without a large ridge Well... its been very ridgy over Alaska all year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 The blob is definitely back... 19-20 dud winter incoming. Rip the band-aid off then we can get back to business. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 A bit of rain in Springfield but none at EUG. Not sure it'll amount to much but it was enough to wet the grass and the car a bit.Currently 63F. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Well... its been very ridgy over Alaska all year.Part of it is the EPO ridge (re-emergence via subsurface given its multiyear persistence). The other is the more recent downwelling that has occurred thanks to the wind/pressure gradient. Not that it matters to the weather. It’s mostly just pretty colors on a map when we’re talking about cold high latitude SSTs like that. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Part of it is the EPO ridge (re-emergence via subsurface given its multiyear persistence). The other is the more recent downwelling that has occurred thanks to the wind/pressure gradient. Not that it matters to the weather. It’s mostly just pretty colors on a map when we’re talking about cold high latitude SSTs like that. I agree... it does not have any implications for winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 The blob is definitely back... It’s all Matt’s fault. Thanks Matt. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Warm mornings, eh?I think you and HeatRaptor would love these RealFeel temps passing 95*F by 9AM. We’re walking the dog at 6AM now to avoid a sweat shower.Gross. I was personally rooting for the pattern to switch to cooler nights after the ULL passes because of the drier/sunnier conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 The blob is definitely back... The Atlantic has flipped significantly as well. Cold horseshoe replaced with warm horseshoe thanks to the flip in the NAO after a historic 6 year positive phase. And believe it or not, if there is a difference in the Atlantic ITCZ/z-cell structure, then you can expect differences in the IO/Indo-Pacific sector as well (research is expanding in this area). Which teleconnects directly to the EOF domain containing the PMM/EPO/TNH/PDO as we move into the second half of 2019. Not debating which is the chicken/egg (answer is likely neither). But it’s a real planetary line of communication that is indicative of a upcoming or ongoing phase change. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 The Atlantic has flipped significantly as well. Cold horseshoe replaced with warm horseshoe thanks to the flip in the NAO after a historic 6 year positive phase. And believe it or not, if there is a difference in the Atlantic ITCZ/z-cell structure, then you can expect differences in the IO/Indo-Pacific sector as well (research is expanding in this area). Which teleconnects directly to the EOF domain containing the PMM/EPO/TNH/PDO as we move into the second half of 2019. Not debating which is the chicken/egg (answer is likely neither). But it’s a real link. I just can't believe it! I was lying awake last night thinking about the z-cell structure. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 The Atlantic has flipped significantly as well. Cold horseshoe replaced with warm horseshoe thanks to the flip in the NAO after a historic 6 year positive phase.And believe it or not, if there is a difference in the Atlantic ITCZ/z-cell structure, then you can expect differences in the IO/Indo-Pacific sector as well (research is expanding in this area). Which teleconnects directly to the EOF domain containing the PMM/EPO/TNH/PDO as we move into the second half of 2019.Not debating which is the chicken/egg (answer is likely neither). But it’s a real planetary line of communication that is indicative of a upcoming or ongoing phase change.What ramifications does -NAO have for winter? I always hear it talked about in the context of summer. Does it bring more arctic air? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 I just can't believe it! I was lying awake last night thinking about the z-cell structure. Z-cells (Hadley/Ferrel/Polar). Their structure is correlated to the low-frequency state of the annular mode(s), and the acceleration in their axisymmetric cycle of late was a huge contributor to the ridgy 2013-18 period in your area. So you should be awake at night. I can link you to some easy-to-read literature if you want. There’s more to it, of course, but that stagnant +PMM/+NAM made it so d**n easy to go nuclear with ridging out there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Icon looks more like the GFS early next week. GEM looks more similar to the euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 19-20 dud winter incoming. Rip the band-aid off then we can get back to business.Well the blob was here during the winter of 13-14 and we had 2 Arctic Blast that winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 What ramifications does -NAO have for winter? I always hear it talked about in the context of summer. Does it bring more arctic air?It’s about what the NAO represents. Even though it’s not a driver of PNW weather *directly*, it’s *directly indicative* of the larger scale boundary conditions that *do* drive PNW weather (and climate). A true -NAO is indicative of a favorable z-cell/planetary wave structure for maintaining -PNA on a seasonal scale (in essence, equatorward-contracted subtropical highs cyclonic surf across the proper middle latitude WAF/transfer domains, as opposed to poleward anticyclonic surf as seen under strong +NAO/+NAM). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 It’s all Matt’s fault. Thanks Matt.When I think of the blob I think of this scene: No coincidence that those boxes are orange... 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Well the blob was here during the winter of 13-14 and we had 2 Arctic Blast that winter.December 2013 was really cool, the only problem was crystal clear skies (which is why it got so cold). Tillamook hit -10°F which is incredible. For some reason, Portland didn’t perform as well. While PDX got to 12, Hillsboro (which isn’t in the UHI and is capable of subzero) only got to 9 for some reason. In comparison, January 2017 bottomed at 11 at PDX and 3 at Hillsboro. Anyone know why? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 December 2013 was really cool, the only problem was crystal clear skies (which is why it got so cold). Tillamook hit -10°F which is incredible. For some reason, Portland didn’t perform as well. While PDX got to 12, Hillsboro (which isn’t in the UHI and is capable of subzero) only got to 9 for some reason. In comparison, January 2017 bottomed at 11 at PDX and 3 at Hillsboro. Anyone know why?Snowcover probably 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Snowcover probably Yep 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Low solar heavily favors both -NAO and -EPO. 2013-14 was a -EPO driven winter. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 USA... USA!!! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 December 2013 was really cool, the only problem was crystal clear skies (which is why it got so cold). Tillamook hit -10°F which is incredible. For some reason, Portland didn’t perform as well. While PDX got to 12, Hillsboro (which isn’t in the UHI and is capable of subzero) only got to 9 for some reason. In comparison, January 2017 bottomed at 11 at PDX and 3 at Hillsboro. Anyone know why?I know eug hit -10 at some point maybe not that year but Tillamook? I don’t remember that. Edit: Tillamook hit 10 not negative 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 I know eug hit -10 at some point maybe not that year but Tillamook? I don’t remember that.Edit: Tillamook hit 10 not negative 10Whoops, I was mistaken. Still an impressive cold event. Hope we can get an Arctic Blast this winter. Been a while since we’ve had one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 December 2013 was really cool, the only problem was crystal clear skies (which is why it got so cold). Tillamook hit -10°F which is incredible. For some reason, Portland didn’t perform as well. While PDX got to 12, Hillsboro (which isn’t in the UHI and is capable of subzero) only got to 9 for some reason. In comparison, January 2017 bottomed at 11 at PDX and 3 at Hillsboro. Anyone know why?Snowcover probablyYepYeah, it was due to snowcover. I had to drive from Gresham to Hillsboro each morning and it felt like I was on an Arctic Tundra. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 87B96124-058C-4E91-9E43-5C51EE057A52.gif 3F3CC136-9208-434D-9D70-74A0A2F46760.gif So I could be looking at potentially a cooler July than in 2016. Perhaps a coolest in a decade. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 25 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Well the blob was here during the winter of 13-14 and we had 2 Arctic Blast that winter. Yeah, coolest December in Klamath County in over 40 years. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 25 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Yeah, it was due to snowcover. I had to drive from Gresham to Hillsboro each morning and it felt like I was on an Arctic Tundra. Lows in the low double digits above zero would be downright balmy up in the Tundra during the winter. They are mostly below zero all winter long up there with an average temp of -20F. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Lows in the low double digits above zero would be downright balmy up in the Tundra during the winter. They are mostly below zero all winter long up there with an average temp of -20F. So my low of -20 on 12/08/2013 matched their AVERAGE. Gotcha. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 25 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 16, 2019 Report Share Posted July 16, 2019 Four corners high really builds in next week. Strongest of the year that is for sure with most of the country roasting. Looks like the immediate PNW maintains enough onshore flow to escape the worst of the heat. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.