PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This April reminds me more of 2011 than 2022. 

I’m getting 2012 vibes.

Year-to-date, 2023 is is among the top-5 driest on record here since the 1860s. Vegetation is leafing out, but everything looks stressed and unhealthy. Concerning, to say the least.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

MASSIVE West Coast Trough = MASSIVE East Coast Ridge

Except during summer when strong western ridge = strong Bermuda High. Which has been all to common in recent years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m getting 2012 vibes.

Year-to-date, 2023 is is among the top-5 driest on record here since the 1860s. Vegetation is leafing out, but everything looks stressed and unhealthy. Concerning, to say the least.

It’s more consistently cold here than 2012.

[Winterdog]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Except during summer when strong western ridge = strong Bermuda High. Which has been all to common in recent years.

I have a feeling this summer is going to be different in many respects.  By the way how are you feeling tonight Phil?

[Omegaraptor]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m getting 2012 vibes.

Year-to-date, 2023 is is among the top-5 driest on record here since the 1860s. Vegetation is leafing out, but everything looks stressed and unhealthy. Concerning, to say the least.

When was the last drought out in your area? Think you've said before it's been a while. Seems like 2016 and 2017 were dry years in DC but I'm not sure whether that extends to other areas on the East Coast.

[Deweydog]

Last time we took the pledge it SNOWED a few weeks later. Stay tuned!

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Last time we took the pledge it SNOWED a few weeks later. Stay tuned!

Was that before we got the trace or the BIGGER trace?

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Was that before we got the trace or the BIGGER trace?

No way to know, my little Jessamie seed. 

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

When was the last drought out in your area? Think you've said before it's been a while. Seems like 2016 and 2017 were dry years in DC but I'm not sure whether that extends to other areas on the East Coast.

2016 was dry in late summer/fall, but neither year met drought criteria thanks to earlier surpluses. 2012 was the last drought year. The last decade has been very generous in terms of rainfall for this region..we’re probably going to pay for it eventually.

Last D3 (aka “extreme” drought) was in 2008. A lot of trees croaked during that one.

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I have a feeling this summer is going to be different in many respects.  By the way how are you feeling tonight Phil?

I think I’m finally starting to turn the corner, thanks for asking.Still getting winded climbing stairs and throat is achy, but definite improvement today.

Hope I never have to deal with this again. Fukkin brutal.

[jcmcgaffey]

I have a feeling we will see a lot of thunderstorms this summer especially compared to the last few summers which have not had many. 

[GHweatherChris]

2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Both are shorts weather.

[MossMan]

Down to 34. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I guess I'll say what's on my mind!! 

I know we are coming out of La Nina conditions and going into El Nino. I just want to remind everyone, El Nino doesn't always mean dry and warm weather. It's the same thing with La Nina. I think it was 2 years ago where the weather pattern was like an El Nino even though we were in La Nina. In October, November and half of December were very dry. We did finally started having cold and some snow but it was late in the season. 

We actually don't really know what this El Nino will mean for the PNW until we see what the models show us. As we have been seeing for the past two weeks, they show warmer weather for us but then the rug is pulled out from underneath us. We'll just need to see what happens down the road. 

That's it for my thoughts of the day

[TigerWoodsLibido]

16 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I guess I'll say what's on my mind!! 

I know we are coming out of La Nina conditions and going into El Nino. I just want to remind everyone, El Nino doesn't always mean dry and warm weather. It's the same thing with La Nina. I think it was 2 years ago where the weather pattern was like an El Nino even though we were in La Nina. In October, November and half of December were very dry. We did finally started having cold and some snow but it was late in the season. 

We actually don't really know what this El Nino will mean for the PNW until we see what the models show us. As we have been seeing for the past two weeks, they show warmer weather for us but then the rug is pulled out from underneath us. We'll just need to see what happens down the road. 

That's it for my thoughts of the day

Wine Dine Jan 1969 'Big Snow' was a decent nino. Like 40" of snow Jan 25-27 nonstop.

[Meatyorologist]

22 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I guess I'll say what's on my mind!! 

I know we are coming out of La Nina conditions and going into El Nino. I just want to remind everyone, El Nino doesn't always mean dry and warm weather. It's the same thing with La Nina. I think it was 2 years ago where the weather pattern was like an El Nino even though we were in La Nina. In October, November and half of December were very dry. We did finally started having cold and some snow but it was late in the season. 

We actually don't really know what this El Nino will mean for the PNW until we see what the models show us. As we have been seeing for the past two weeks, they show warmer weather for us but then the rug is pulled out from underneath us. We'll just need to see what happens down the road. 

That's it for my thoughts of the day

Good perspective, Ken. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Did five hours of yard work today. @TT-SEA would be proud. 

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I guess I'll say what's on my mind!! 

I know we are coming out of La Nina conditions and going into El Nino. I just want to remind everyone, El Nino doesn't always mean dry and warm weather. It's the same thing with La Nina. I think it was 2 years ago where the weather pattern was like an El Nino even though we were in La Nina. In October, November and half of December were very dry. We did finally started having cold and some snow but it was late in the season. 

We actually don't really know what this El Nino will mean for the PNW until we see what the models show us. As we have been seeing for the past two weeks, they show warmer weather for us but then the rug is pulled out from underneath us. We'll just need to see what happens down the road. 

That's it for my thoughts of the day

Look at 1982 and 1983... on both sides of a super Nino.   

And February 2019 during a Nino. 

On the other side... look at the summers of 2021 and 2022 during a multi-year Nina.  

Anything can happen... and probably will!

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS continues the trend of putting significant troughing over AK and the Bering Sea in the long range where the blocking ridging has been for so long.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Clearing skies have allowed our temp to dip to 32 already this early morning. 

 

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Clearing skies have allowed our temp to dip to 32 already this early morning. 

 

What a blessing foothill man! 34 IMBY this morning tied for the coldest low so far this month. Could maybe sneak down to 32-33 before sunrise but we shall see.

[Ken in Wood Village]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS continues the trend of putting significant troughing over AK and the Bering Sea in the long range where the blocking ridging has been for so long.

Thanks for showing this but I did noticed that it's 360 hour mark. Everyone knows that far out is unreliable. A lot can change between now and then. I've been burned to many times when I see something that far out. 

Here is the full run of the 00Z EPS. I would really just look at the first 5 to 7 days for the forecast. The only time I would say that we could see something significant is if all the models are showing a strong signal of a warm up. 

Anyway, I do hope we start warming up. I'm getting a little tired of the cold. I don't mind the rain, just wish it was a little warmer...lol

[MossMan]

32 and frosty. 

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Thanks for showing this but I did noticed that it's 360 hour mark. Everyone knows that far out is unreliable. A lot can change between now and then. I've been burned to many times when I see something that far out. 

Here is the full run of the 00Z EPS. I would really just look at the first 5 to 7 days for the forecast. The only time I would say that we could see something significant is if all the models are showing a strong signal of a warm up. 

Anyway, I do hope we start warming up. I'm getting a little tired of the cold. I don't mind the rain, just wish it was a little warmer...lol

Yes... I mentioned it was the long range part of the EPS but the process starts earlier.   Its just something I have noticed on the last few runs of the EPS... which is a tendency to really focus the strongest troughy signal in the area that has had the strongest ridging/blocking signal for the last couple of months.    No idea if it actually happens or if it warms us up but its something to watch.   And I agree about the cold... some variety would be nice.    At least alternating warm and cool periods as opposed to all cold all the time.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Both are shorts weather.

If you're covered in fur like your raccoons.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ultimately the temp ended up falling to 30 this morning. 8th freeze of the month. Very interesting to see what kind of numbers we put up next week, or if we get our first 60 by the end of the month. 

[TT-SEA]

This dire warning popped up on my work computer when I logged in this morning.    Tracking the Nino like its a storm coming that will hit a specific area.   

[Ken in Wood Village]

I thought I would post 00Z Euro because it's still showing the possibility of snow but I don't think it will amount to anything. I'm guessing the freezing level will be down to 1,500 feet, maybe lower. If you look at the precipitation map most of the moisture is green, not blue. It could change in the next couple of days but most of the air mass is coming off the Ocean, it's not really cold air. You probably could see chunky rain again but I think we are past the possibility of sticking snow to the valley floor. 

Enjoy today and tomorrow because it looks dry for the most part then rain moves in Sunday. Have a good day

[Anti Marine Layer]

Some parts of California had their coldest March on record.

[MossMan]

It’s coming? 
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11970435/amp/Experts-red-alert-mega-earthquake-coast-analyzing-hole-fault-line.html 

[Omegaraptor]

5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Some parts of California had their coldest March on record.

Hearing “California” and “coldest on record” in the same sentence is like witnessing an eclipse nowadays.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Skies were overcast heading to bed last night but cleared nicely. Allowed temps to get all the way down to 34 this morning with a light frost.

Currently mostly sunny and 37.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

28 IMBY this morning. Hard frost. 

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like some stations in Tacoma area got down to 28. Not bad!

HIO got to 32, CVO 36

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Man it's been cold!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I never thought I would be forced to move out of Washington because of political reasons but I have no choice now. The fact I can't purchase a semi automatic hunting shotgun is just to much to swallow for me. I've been quite on here because I've been trying to figure out what to do with my life. The business throws a monkey wrench into this. I will have to sell my business, my property In Eastern Washington, everything. 

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I never thought I would be forced to move out of Washington because of political reasons but I have no choice now. The fact I can't purchase a semi automatic hunting shotgun is just to much to swallow for me. I've been quite on here because I've been trying to figure out what to do with my life. The business throws a monkey wrench into this. I will have to sell my business, my property In Eastern Washington, everything. 

You could become Kayla’s neighbor in Montana! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really liking the way the GFS is trending through hour 168. 

[TT-SEA]

Overall the signs are positive for a general pattern change coming later in the month... and its nice to have the EPS on board.    

The 12Z GEM goes crazy with the ridging next week but this is probably rushing the pattern change.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Chilly trough at hour 240 of the 12z GFS