PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I told you weeks ago this was going to happen. Because jinx. I'm in Portland for a few days.

[MossMan]

Looks like a lovely evening to beach a ferry! 

[Winterdog]

Had a 55/33 day, sitting at 47 now.  Missed my 89th and record tying freeze by a degree.  I’m pretty shaken up by that and will no longer be adding an ‘F’ after my temp numbers.  Added .04” to my monthly (revised) total of 3.84”.

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks like a lovely evening to beach a ferry! 

Well that sucks.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I told you weeks ago this was going to happen. Because jinx. I'm in Portland for a few days.

Hasn't actually happened yet... and ECMWF has been questionable lately with snowfall maps.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hasn't actually happened yet

Wait...

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

See you at the swimming pool. I just got a new bathing suit and flip flops.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good 00z gfs run.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good 00z gfs run.

Every run is totally different... lots of moving parts.    EPS is the only consistent model at this point.  

[TT-SEA]

Been watching rain turn to snow on traffic cams around southern MN this evening where it was 90 degrees a couple days ago.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z is a Goldilocks solution 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

00z is a Goldilocks solution 

Big fan of where the Euro is going at day 10 as well. Would be nice to get some warmer days mixed in eventually and maybe more of a rollercoaster type pattern for later spring. Good for thunderstorms and strong marine pushes mixed in with spikes of warm to very warm temps. That is of course if we can avoid an unmitigated disaster scenario like a May 2018 redux.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Back at home from a beautiful trip to the coast. Looks like a 59/40 spread here today. Currently a cloudy and relatively mild 52. Tomorrow is looking to be on the wet side.

[LowerGarfield]

19 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Back at home from a beautiful trip to the coast. Looks like a 59/40 spread here today. Currently a cloudy and relatively mild 52. Tomorrow is looking to be on the wet side.

Spouse and son are over in Vancouver this weekend. Maybe they'll see some rain before they head back? On the east side we have a slight chance of t-storms later. It's been so dry here in SE WA I can't cheer for t-storms. But they are pretty to watch.

[Meatyorologist]

This is a truly remarkable troughing pattern we are in. One of the better ones in the last few decades. In many respects from a 500mb perspective this is about as persistent as last Fall's endless ridging, even if the surface details are AGW-ified a tad.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is a truly remarkable troughing pattern we are in. One of the better ones in the last few decades. In many respects from a 500mb perspective this is about as persistent as last Fall's endless ridging, even if the surface details are AGW-ified a tad.

Starting to think SEA might fail to reach 60 in April for the first time ever.    Also wondering about the offset that is coming this summer and how unusually persistent patterns have been since last spring.    Some balance would be great. 

[The Cats Meow]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Starting to think SEA might fail to reach 60 in April for the first time ever.    Also wondering about the offset that is coming this summer and how unusually persistent patterns have been since last spring.    Some balance would be great. 

Nah nah nah.  We are going to hit 60 towards the end of the month.

There will be many many more blessings before then though.  Many.

[MossMan]

Guess April 2021 had some sun…

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Starting to think SEA might fail to reach 60 in April for the first time ever.    Also wondering about the offset that is coming this summer and how unusually persistent patterns have been since last spring.    Some balance would be great. 

I’m sure we’ll have like 40+ 90F burgers like usual but if we stay cool until late June then the fires shouldn’t be too bad hopefully.

[Phil]

MJO/CCKW activity still dominating over any developing low frequency +ENSO signal. If this was going to be a super niño year I would’ve expected a lot more than this.

Unless it ends up being an extremely east based event, I doubt it gets that strong.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I’m sure we’ll have like 40+ 90F burgers like usual but if we stay cool until late June then the fires shouldn’t be too bad hopefully.

That didn't work last year... very wet until late June and then the worst smoke we have ever seen last fall.   But the warm season was so extreme last year.   Shouldn't be too hard to avoid a repeat of that mess.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Starting to think SEA might fail to reach 60 in April for the first time ever.    Also wondering about the offset that is coming this summer and how unusually persistent patterns have been since last spring.    Some balance would be great. 

There is no such thing as “offset”, though. That line of thinking can work sometimes when ENSO/base state is stable, but it doesn’t actually work that way.

Whats fascinating is that same forcing patterns that produced the cold spring in 2022 also caused the summer to be hot. Regional outcomes change as seasons/etc change, but the fact the system state *failed* to restructure during the warm season (as most ENSOs do) is why the result was so whacky.

It could be argued La Niña *peaked* in summer 2022 (which is when the low pass signal was most stable) and slowly degraded from there, before being torpedoed by the SSW at the end of winter.

If this year wasn’t going into full blown +ENSO it would have a real chance to produce a legitimate cool summer across NW North America. The developing El Niño will prevent that from happening, but the mechanism(s) responsible for the persistent ridging in 2021 and 2022 have broken down entirely.

So if you’re expecting a repeat it will have to happen without a sprawling 4CH or broad NPAC ITCZ/Hadley Cell. You’d instead need a pattern of RWB to establish, amplify to historic proportions, and then evolve in *exactly* the correct way to maintain the seasonal teleconnection to western heat/ridging. Not quite powerball odds but it’s in that territory.  

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

There is no such thing as “offset”, though. That line of thinking can work sometimes when ENSO/base state is stable, but it doesn’t actually work that way.

Whats fascinating is that same forcing patterns that produced the cold spring in 2022 also caused the summer to be hot. Regional outcomes change as seasons/etc change, but the fact the system state *failed* to restructure during the warm season (as most ENSOs do) is why the result was so whacky.

It could be argued La Niña *peaked* in summer 2022 (which is when the low pass signal was most stable) and slowly degraded from there, before being torpedoed by the SSW at the end of winter.

If this year wasn’t going into full blown +ENSO it would have a real chance to produce a legitimate cool summer across NW North America. The developing El Niño will prevent that from happening, but the mechanism(s) responsible for the persistent ridging in 2021 and 2022 have broken down entirely.

So if you’re expecting a repeat it will have to happen without a sprawling 4CH or broad NPAC ITCZ/Hadley Cell. You’d instead need a pattern of RWB to establish, amplify to historic proportions, and then evolve in *exactly* the correct way to maintain the seasonal teleconnection to western heat/ridging. Not quite powerball odds but it’s in that territory.  

Basically saying the same thing... a repeat of last summer would be virtually impossible.   But the odds of the hottest summer ever happening last year with a rapidly strengthening 3rd year Nina during the spring also seemed like powerball type odds.    Last summer was the complete opposite of what we were thinking one year ago.

[TacomaWx]

Starting to get a bit damp out there this morning…0.05” and 2.62” MTD. This month will be wetter than January February and March by the end of the day. 

[MossMan]

48 and starting to rain. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last year was not the worst for wildfire smoke here. We actually didn’t have any major fires close by. I think the Cedar Creek Fire was the closest big one. We had a lot more smoke from the eagle creek fire in 2017, obviously Beachie Creek in 2020, and there was another pretty decent size fire right next to the Beachie creek burn scar in 2021 that gave us a tremendous amount of smoke. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Rain and 47 this morning.

[Skagit Weather]

57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That didn't work last year... very wet until late June and then the worst smoke we have ever seen last fall.   But the warm season was so extreme last year.   Shouldn't be too hard to avoid a repeat of that mess.

The wildfires also weren't actually that bad last year, they just tended to be quite smoky and combined with a really unusual and consistent pattern to immerse us in smoke for multiple weeks.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last year was not the worst for wildfire smoke here. We actually didn’t have any major fires close by. I think the Cedar Creek Fire was the closest big one. We had a lot more smoke from the eagle creek fire in 2017, obviously Beachie Creek in 2020, and there was another pretty decent size fire right next to the Beachie creek burn scar in 2021 that gave us a tremendous amount of smoke. 

Last September and October were ridiculous for persistent smoke.   Obviously you might have had different experiences based on proximity to local fires in years past.   But in terms of regional and persistent smoke... its hard to imagine something worse than the first half of last fall.   At least for western WA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Last September and October were ridiculous for persistent smoke.   Obviously you might have had different experiences based on proximity to local fires in years past.   But in terms of regional and persistent smoke... its hard to imagine something worse than the first half of last fall.   At least for western WA.

Been kind of the same story since about 2015 down here. Sounds like you just finally got in on the party. Now you know what we’ve been talking about. 

[The Cats Meow]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Last September and October were ridiculous for persistent smoke.   Obviously you might have had different experiences based on proximity to local fires in years past.   But in terms of regional and persistent smoke... its hard to imagine something worse than the first half of last fall.   At least for western WA.

This.

I remember forecast busts on the temperature range because of the thick smoke.  The models just can't deal with smoke.  What would have normally been warm warm days ended up being nothing burgers.

There will be plenty of blessings though.  Lots and lots of blessings this summer.

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Been kind of the same story since about 2015 down here. Sounds like you just finally got in on the party. Now you know what we’ve been talking about. 

Yep... and complete with a surprising number of dead fir trees around here now.   Not sure if I have mentioned it... but I am not a fan of extreme heat and dry weather despite the caricature you like to paint of me.   Balance is good.   

[The Cats Meow]

48 and moderate rain here.

Was able to get outside this morning and thin my strawberry plants and replant them.

They love all this rain and if it continues I'll likely have monster sized berries this year.

The warmth will set in after the fruit sets and it will be wonderful! 

Peas going in the ground later today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

39 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

The wildfires also weren't actually that bad last year, they just tended to be quite smoky and combined with a really unusual and consistent pattern to immerse us in smoke for multiple weeks.

Not sure what you mean. It was easily the worst fire season in years up your way. Probably decades. Multiple fires burning west of the Cascade crest north of Snoqualmie Pass and putting out tons of smoke. And it’s not like the rest of the region was quiet, with massive fires like Cedar Creek burning in Oregon, among others.

Edited April 16, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Last September and October were ridiculous for persistent smoke.   Obviously you might have had different experiences based on proximity to local fires in years past.   But in terms of regional and persistent smoke... its hard to imagine something worse than the first half of last fall.   At least for western WA.

The smoke and ash from the Skykomish fire was insane and lasted almost two months. 

Edited April 16, 2023 by MossMan

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Rainy morning in Portland.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The smoke and ash from the Skykomish fire was insane. 

And that was just the start.   5 weeks later we were still mired in a smoky/hazy mess.

[Cold Snap]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The smoke and ash from the Skykomish fire was insane and lasted almost two months. 

Yeah I’m really hoping we don’t repeat that this summer. I honestly don’t really care how much summer torches as long as there is no wildfire smoke. As long as it’s not a straight blowtorch of a summer.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah I’m really hoping we don’t repeat that this summer. I honestly don’t really care how much summer torches as long as there is no wildfire smoke. As long as it’s not a straight blowtorch of a summer.

That’s like saying you don’t care if there’s record breaking rainfall all winter as long as there isn’t any flooding.

Edited April 16, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Skagit Weather]

18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not sure what you mean. It was easily the worst season in years up your way. Probably decades. Multiple fires burning west of the Cascade crest north of Snoqualmie Pass and putting out tons of smoke. And it’s not like the rest of the region was quiet, with massive fires like Cedar Creek burning in Oregon, among others.

I guess it depends on how you think about the wildfires. Statewide, the number of acres burned last year in Washington was significantly less than the long term average and was the smallest since 2012 (article is as of October 6th, but despite the fires lasting a couple weeks longer not too many more acres were burned). However, as you noted, the wildfires that were west of the Cascades were larger and more smoky than previous years. I think in recent years we've had lots of Eastern WA brush fires pad the total acres burned number and last year there was more activity on the west side.