Grizzcoat Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 shocking - DMX gives the GFS the boot... .LONG TERM.../Wednesday Night through Monday/Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019/Wednesday Night through Thursday Night/...Confidence: Medium to HighOverall confidence has increased, but there is still a large spreadbetween the evolution of the GFS and the Euro with the GFS stilldeepening the system faster and closer to Iowa than the Euro.Current ensemble guidance still favors the slower, less develop Eurosolution and will be leaning again in that direction concerning qpfproduction and snowfall amounts. Incidentally, the NAM and GEM arealso both supporting a slightly weaker and less amplified low untilthe system gets east of the Mississippi River and enters the GreatLakes.By 00z Thursday, both models begin to develop a deformation axis onthe back side of the H850 low near the location of collocated H500mechanical lift. A solid area of snow will develop over northwestMissouri by 00z and lift northeast into southern Iowa from 00 to06z. This should be the peak production time for snow over the southwith a six hour period of 1 to between 2 to 3 inches southeast of aline from Creston to about Marshalltown. The heavier totals willline up southeast of Lamoni to near Ottumwa with Bloomfield andborder counties likely to see the highest amountsThe GFS remainsmuch stronger than the Euro with regard to snowfall production inthis event. At this time, nothing justifies leaning toward thatsolution with as much snow is as forecast Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 I believe I read 3” official here. I know I have that on my deck. 2 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 06Z GFS starting the caving process... That shiny new upgrade from the old GFS is even worse. Imagine that. It's only good? to about 36 hours. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Congrats on the Snow everyone! Nice to hear the word overperformed from your 1st official snow event. Things are trending better for Chicagoland in the snow dept for the Halloween system. Let's see how today's suite of runs turns out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 1.2" officially at the DSM airport. 3 times the monthly average and a daily record. The ground is white everywhere and reports of slick bridges and overpasses as temps have dropped as low as 18F on the NW side of DSM 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Seeing some 3-4" reports over into S/C Wisco...not to shabby for your 1st snowfall of the season! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 DVN has me for 4” by Thursday Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just got my first WWA of the year in Oct!Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO411 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019...Snow and Freezing Drizzle Expected Tonight through Thursday....Snow and freezing drizzle will begin tonight over centralMissouri into eastern Kansas and persist through the morningtimeframe. The freezing drizzle threat will diminish Wednesdayafternoon as temperatures warm above freezing, but snowfall willbegin to spread to northwest Missouri by the late afternoon astemperatures begin to fall again. Overnight the threat of freezingdrizzle and snow will return for most of the area with thefreezing drizzle staying mostly over the KC Metro and centralMissouri through the morning timeframe. The heaviest snowfall willoccur overnight over northern Missouri, where 2 to 3 inches willbe possible by Thursday afternoon.KSZ025-057-060-103>105-MOZ020>025-028>033-037>040-043-044-292100-/O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0016.191030T0300Z-191031T0900Z/Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg,Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth,Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe,Shawnee, Lenexa, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, Cameron,Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge,Chillicothe, Brookfield, Marceline, Macon, La Plata, Parkville,Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone,Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton,Salisbury, Brunswick, Keytesville, Moberly, Kansas City,Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia,Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow, New Franklin, Belton, Raymore,Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, and Warrensburg411 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO4 AM CDT THURSDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulationsof up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenthof an inch.* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas andcentral, north central, northwest and west central Missouri.* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Thursday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardousconditions could impact the morning or evening commute.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The bulk of the freezing drizzle isexpected overnight and into the morning Wednesday and Thursdayduring rush hour, potentially causing issues for the commute.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Slow down and use caution while traveling. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Wow you guys did well over there! I ended with 0.9" on the patio table. Very little on the roads but the grass is covered! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 3” is the report from Dubuque, and I can’t disagree. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Wow kinda surprised they gave us a wwa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 LOT suggesting 1-4" of snow across N IL later tonight into tomorrow from the wave that develops out ahead of the main system.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Both Nam and 3k Nam are being generous here. Placing a nice band that sits for a few hours before dry air chokes everything out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 6z Euro becoming more bullish on amounts! Tom, Jaster, and Niko 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 6z Euro becoming more bullish on amounts! Tom, Jaster, and Niko Thanks Clinton! Gas up them snow blowers! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 I’d take the gfs and throw it because it’s all by itself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 14 accidents between 11pm and 1am in Lincoln last night. Bridges were a disaster apparently. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 bridges and overpasses were a sheet of ice this morning for the commute here in CR too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 The snow may have overperformed a bit, but the models were not wrong about qpf. The general consensus was about 0.20" precip, and my 2.5" of snow melted down to 0.18" liquid. It simply piled up better than expected. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Iowawx Posted October 29, 2019 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 I measured 3.0 inches of snow this morning. It’s currently 23 degrees with freezing fog in Cedar Rapids. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Officially 4in here! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Even in higher elevation Wyoming a wind chill warning in October is bizarre. This is the statistical equivalent of an excessive heat warning in April. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Riverton WY545 AM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019...An Arctic front will bring snow and frigid temperatures toWyoming....An arctic front will bring another round of snow, along withbitter cold temperatures, to areas of western and centralWyoming. Areas west of the Divide will be more impacted by snowwith this storm. Snow will begin to end from north to south, withlight snow continuing over central portions and west of theDivide Tuesday afternoon.WYZ030-291945-/O.NEW.KRIW.WC.W.0002.191030T0000Z-191030T1200Z//O.CON.KRIW.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191030T0000Z/East Sweetwater County-Including the city of Wamsutter545 AM MDT Tue Oct 29 2019...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THISEVENING......WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AMMDT WEDNESDAY...* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow. Additionalsnow accumulations of up to two inches. Winds gusting as highas 55 mph. For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold windchills expected. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero.* WHERE...East Sweetwater County.* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 6 PM MDT thisevening. For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 PM this evening to6 AM MDT Wednesday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowingsnow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardousconditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gustywinds could bring down tree branches. The dangerously coldwind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as littleas 10 minutes.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Air temperatures will only rise to around 5degrees, before dropping to 10 to 15 degrees below zero tonight.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water inyour vehicle in case of an emergency.Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure youwear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from canbe obtained by calling 5 1 1. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 12z ICON is no change... generally weak... a bit of light snow here Wednesday night while northern Illinois gets a decent burst. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 12z nam light snow for far se ia look for big changes on gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 "The Old Farmer's Almanac Predicts 'No Fewer' Than 7 Big Snowstorms This Winter" https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/old-farmers-almanac-predicts-no-134100864.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 DMX snowfall map 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Thanks Clinton! Gas up them snow blowers! Hurrying home today after work to prep mine. Usually put it off until Mid-November. We're sitting in a decent spot here in the Illinois Valley on both GFS and Euro, although Euro looks like we're threading the needle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Big bump on the SREF mean from previous run. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Looks like a change to snowshowers for my area Friday morning as cold air wraps into SEMI. (Tis the season) 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Gfs further east in iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 It is further east but still pretty strong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 in an odd way, i'm encouraged by the GFS. Obviously showing 15" of snow was never realistic, So today's run is much more in line with reality. And matches up fairly well with the Euro, just slightly stronger and slightly further west. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Sucks bad to just barely get missed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 in an odd way, i'm encouraged by the GFS. Obviously showing 15" of snow was never realistic, So today's run is much more in line with reality. And matches up fairly well with the Euro, just slightly stronger and slightly further west. Jaster does ok w this. Maybe 2-3" if I am seeing this correctly. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 I took a lot more snow measurements this morning & had some surfaces with around 3.30" where hardly any melting occurred. But the sidewalks and driveway had hardly anything as it was to warm yet. I'll probably go with 2.80" or 3" now. It was kind of a fluffy, dry snow even though temps were marginal and it seemed wet and sticky, but those big flakes added up more, and my gauges all had around 0.25" liquid equivalent. I left the cone top on one gauge as figured it wouldn't snow much and will stick and not blow out anyway, which was ok as it had basically the same amount. Man, the low temp of 23° and snow did a number on the tree leaves! Not sure if I ever saw so many falling so quickly as this morning. Suddenly a few nearly bare trees that still had plenty. Kinda sucks it spoiled the color which I think looks prettier than it does now with the snow rapidly melting 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 The trees are full of leaves down here as they are nearing there peak. This much heavy wet snow could be a problem for them. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 6z Euro becoming more bullish on amounts! Tom, Jaster, and Niko Sucks bad to just barely get missed I appreciate the Euro being posted. Nonetheless, IF that's the way things end up going it will be a continuation of last winter's "near misses" (like literally 1/2 county NW) with the sig. snowfall extreme cut-off that happened with every storm post-PV visit. Not sure I can be thrilled for this trend, lol Meanwhile, congrats to all the west part of sub peeps who got their 1st flakes/acuum's in the bag in October! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Jaster does ok w this. Maybe 2-3" if I am seeing this correctly. Unfortunately it's an outlier at the moment. Most of that snow back my way happens from backside wrap-around due to the more wound-up solution the GFS portrays. Not betting for or against it, but right now it is not the favored outcome so keeping my anticipation for anything historic in check attm. WestMJim on the other hand looks golden 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 The trees are full of leaves down here as they are nearing there peak. This much heavy wet snow could be a problem for them.I’m having flashbacks to 1996 surprise storm. Power outages and limbs broken everywhere. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 29, 2019 Report Share Posted October 29, 2019 Unfortunately it's an outlier at the moment. Most of that snow back my way happens from backside wrap-around due to the more wound-up solution the GFS portrays. Not betting for or against it, but right now it is not the favored outcome so keeping my anticipation for anything historic in check attm. WestMJim on the other hand looks golden Hopefully you get some of the white stuff as cold air wraps into SWMI. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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