November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Stacsh]

Arctic front looks slower but juicer for the end of the weekend on the GFS. 

 

Edit: for Michigan (Lake enhanced and effect) and points east

[Minny_Weather]

The GFS performance at the roughly 5 day mark and beyond so far this season has appeared to be atrocious.  It's one thing if it has a storm and varies on strength and placement, but this is now the 2nd potential storm in a couple weeks that it shows no storm at all.  It ended up being way wrong with the Halloween storm until it got inside of 4-5 days.  I would be surprised if the Euro was the model that is completely wrong with the Monday system that is showing up.  

I agree with this, while also saying that the Euro is very moist biased. 

[MIKEKC]

No go on the GFS and CMC for snow early next week. ICON on its own. We’ll see what the EURO does.

 

60’s this weekend for KC.

 

The LRC here in KC has produced less then 1 inch of moisture in the first month...so, that should tell us a dry winter is on tap?

[Clinton]

No go on the GFS and CMC for snow early next week. ICON on its own. We’ll see what the EURO does.

 

60’s this weekend for KC.

 

The LRC here in KC has produced less then 1 inch of moisture in the first month...so, that should tell us a dry winter is on tap?

While KC has been dry I'm about 50 miles east and had just over 5in for Oct.  So I wouldn't bet that it gets to dry this winter in KC.

[jaster220]

12z ICON still showing the Veteran's Day storm and starting to see some buckling in the trough right over the GL's where the Long Term Long Wave Trough has been showing up time and time again.  Storms have been intensifying throughout this region a lot this Autumn.

 

Nice pivot around SMI. Starts as rain here tho (-) otherwise looks like a decent 2-4" type event. Would be a great kick-off! 

[jaster220]

Dare I say 4-6"+ for Niko's Pl??!!

 

Hahaha. Trying to jack-ZONE mby 

[Niko]

Tornado in Kalamata, Greece.

 

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/watch-twister-tear-through-olive-oil-factory-in-greece

 

Luckily, friends and family there were not hurt.

[Niko]

Attm, mostly to partly cloudy and cold w temps at 34F.

[jaster220]

Tornado in Kalamata, Greece.

 

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/watch-twister-tear-through-olive-oil-factory-in-greece

 

Luckily, friends and family there were not hurt.

 

That's wild! Looks like Tornado Alley here in the States! 

[Niko]

That's wild! Looks like Tornado Alley here in the States!

We don't get them too often there, but as you saw, it can happen. More storms there tanite as another disturbance goes on by.

[Clinton]

Euro is a no go for me but some of you will get some Monday.

[bud2380]

A little weaker this run with the front, but still widespread 1-2" in Iowa. A little better in parts of NE

 

 

[Niko]

Hahaha. Trying to jack-ZONE mby 

[Niko]

Euro is a no go for me but some of you will get some Monday.

Still a few days off, it could change for yby. Watch by the weekend, your forecast calls for a couple of inches and I get nothing  

[Minny_Weather]

A little weaker this run with the front, but still widespread 1-2" in Iowa. A little better in parts of NE

D**n, cuts my total in half. 7" down to 3.3".

[Andie]

First front has pushed through.

Rain has stopped for now. Received .75" my location, others just NW received 2".

 

It's dropped o 42*. Feels like 39*

Low will likely be around 39-40*.

[Clinton]

Nam likes Nebraska and gives me some reason to hope.

[james1976]

Nam likes Nebraska and gives me some reason to hope.

Nice I wonder where it will go from there

[Clinton]

Nice I wonder where it will go from there

Not sure but it seems slower with the artic air and that maybe the key to a bigger storm.

[jaster220]

Not sure but it seems slower with the artic air and that maybe the key to a bigger storm.

 

Definitely would be, and GRR's morning AFD mentioned the same - models trending slower with the AF. Just need a "window" for things to turn for the better. 

 

Meanwhile, LES in NMI is over-achieving even to the east side..

 

 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

349 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

 

MIZ016>018-022>024-028>030-034>036-099-080000-

Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Crawford-

Oscoda-Alcona-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Charlevoix-

Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City,

Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville,

Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, and Charlevoix

349 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

 

...Pockets of heavy snow showers into the early evening...

 

Pockets of heavy snow showers will continue to impact a large part

of northern Lower Michigan heading into the early evening hours.

This will lead to rapidly changing visibility and slick road

conditions for the afternoon and early evening commute.

[Andie]

Our second front will role through Monday.

 

High 49....Low 28*....our first hard freeze... Rain

 

Tuesday is a repeat with a High of 44* and Low of 28* Cloudy

 

Wednesday - Sunny and 49*  

 

Some very chilly weather coming down Texas-way!

[jaster220]

While GRR did have a WWA hoisted, their AFD's kept down-playing the event last evening. I really don't understand that office. 

 

 

Some pretty hefty scores that were above their forecasted amts, and some by quite a bit

 

 

  PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
921 AM EST THU NOV 7 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW HOWARD CITY 43.40N 85.47W
11/07/2019 M6.5 INCH MONTCALM MI PUBLIC

REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

[bud2380]

18z GFS finally showing some moisture with the arctic front.  Pretty limited still, but something.  

[Stormhunter87]

Nam likes Nebraska and gives me some reason to hope.

At this point it's a see to believe lol.

[Stacsh]

Safe to say models are clueless beyond the arctic front Monday.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro actually hits me with the clipper next Thursday. Surprising.

[westMJim]

The current temperature here at my house is at 23° with a DP of 15 and while the skies are mostly clear here there is a cloud deck to my SW and lake effect snow reported just to my SW. If it stays clear it is going to get real cold with some snow still on the ground here,

[Grizzcoat]

Temperatures this AM in most of IA were a bust from 6hrs out from NWS. Sheldon,IA hit -6F. Before I went to bed last night the forecast low was 5F. That -6F is the coldest in IA Nov 7th or earlier since 1991.

12F at my pad  (this AM) with wind chills in around 0F. Forecast low was 16F.

 

Someone earlier posted on how bad the GFS is performing so far this tracking season.  I couldn't agree more. Even the NAM (at it's longer range)  and ICON schooled the GFS with the Halloween system. That's pretty bad. Some "upgrade". I think they got rid the of GFS "Legacy" model - the old GFS because they didn't want it schooling the new "GFS"-- and now it appears the GFS is coming around again to what other models saw much further out.

[Minny_Weather]

Temperatures this AM in most of IA were a bust from 6hrs out from NWS. Sheldon,IA hit -6F. Before I went to bed last night the forecast low was 5F. That -6F is the coldest in IA Nov 7th or earlier since 1991.

12F at my pad (this AM) with wind chills in around 0F. Forecast low was 16F.

 

Someone earlier posted on how bad the GFS is performing so far this tracking season. I couldn't agree more. Even the NAM (at it's longer range) and ICON schooled the GFS with the Halloween system. That's pretty bad. Some "upgrade". I think they got rid the of GFS "Legacy" model - the old GFS because they didn't want it schooling the new "GFS"-- and now it appears the GFS is coming around again to what other models saw much further out.

With how bad it performed as the FV3 last Winter, common sense says they'd give it another year or two to work out the kinks. Nope, guess not. Now the Canadians have a better model than us which is sad.

[Madtown]

17 and falling this evening

[jaster220]

Should swap roles. Promote the NAM to Global status, and demote GFS to "inside 48 hrs" 

[Minny_Weather]

Clouds thinning out which means nothing but plummeting temps tonight. 29.8*F.

[jaster220]

Looks like my old neighborhood in NWMI is one of the lucky regions in the GL's with this year's early arctic shot(s). Normally, all these locations that are at lower elevations would be getting the scraps (1-3") while the higher elevations raked in the 8-12" hit. Noticed the upgrade to Warning and this report confirms the story is the real deal storm

 

0725 PM SNOW 2 SW GREILICKVILLE 44.78N 85.68W
11/07/2019 M4.0 INCH LEELANAU MI BROADCAST MEDIA

12 HOUR TOTAL AT WPBN STUDIOS (NBC
AFFILIATE). HEAVY SNOW FALLING, WITH LITTLE
VISIBILITY. M-72 IS CLOSED FROM TRAVERSE
CITY TO AT LEAST THE STUDIOS.

 

That's a 4-lane state hwy at that stretch btw. 

 

Greilickville is where I took this photo last July

 

 

..and the "Studio" is this one that was literally buried during 2013-14 winter of lore!

 

 

 

More alignment of these two seasons??

 

I just made reservations to be up in Traverse Thanksgiving weekend. Be interesting to see how things stand 3 weeks from now..

 

 

[jaster220]

This is in addition to today's totals.

 

 

849 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations
of 4 to 10 inches. Locally heavier totals are possible. Areas
expected to be impacted by the heaviest snow include
Northport, Suttons Bay, the Old Mission Peninsula, Elk Rapids,
Acme, Williamsburg, and Kalkaska.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Antrim, Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions will impact the morning commute.

 

 

(Of note, ONLY Kalkaska is a "higher elevation" locale that normally would score the early/pre-season LES)

 

This is really rare. In seven yrs living there I cannot remember one comparable LES at this early date that targeted these communities. 

[jaster220]

APX disco from evening update. Unique wording for any office 

 

 

Near-term guidance continues to generate heavy snow tonight in nw
lower MI. A few hours ago TVC proper was the primary target of
the RAP/HRRR, but recent runs has shifted this eastward to a
Northport-Kalkaska line. Something quite unpleasant is going to
happen tonight in that general area, and though specifics are
still to be pinned down, confidence is high enough to warrant an
upgrade to a warning in parts of nw lower MI.

[St Paul Storm]

Already down to 14F here. Calm winds really allowing the chill to settle in.

[Minny_Weather]

CLE's take on next week. I would like to make a side note and say I wish IWX or DTX would take Lucas, Wood, and Hancock Counties off CLE's hands. 90% of the subject matter in CLE's AFDs are focused in the snowbelt, it's almost as if their Western CWA doesn't exist sometimes. Western PA to NW Ohio is too big of a territory for a WFO to cover imo, especially considering the density of the population in this region. I mean look at this, they barely even delve into the possible system snow before going right onto the LES component.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Very strong cold air advection develops on Monday as a prolific
high over the Canadian Prairies moves down into the Great
Plains and low pressure develops off the east coast on Monday
and Tuesday. Low pressure development is associated with a deep
upper level trough swinging through on Monday and Tuesday. This
upper level trough is expected to aid in the development of
widespread precipitation on Monday and Tuesday. The amount of
moisture (and thus QPF) is in question, as is the exact location
of the development of the low pressure on the east coast.
Precipitation would likely begin as rain or wintry mix on Monday
morning/afternoon and then quickly transition to all snow
Monday evening/night. Unidirectional northwest flow develops on
Tuesday following the passage of the trough axis. With very cold
air aloft (-15 C at 850 mb) and decent moisture through at
least 850mb, accumulating lake effect snow will be very likely
through at least Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Headlines for
snow accumulation will probably be needed as it gets closer and
exact details become clearer.

In addition to impactful precipitation, temperatures will be a big
player next week. The aforementioned high pressure over the Great
Plains on Monday will dive down into the central Plains by Tuesday
morning and then makes its way east across the eastern CONUS on
Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in some very cold
temperature beginning Monday night. Record-breaking minimum low and
high temperatures will be possible, Monday night through Wednesday
night. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be
in the upper 20s to lower 30s and low temperatures in the low 20s
and likely in the teens, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. With the prolific high pressure and possibility of a snow
pack, there`s a good chance we may not be going low enough with our
temperatures during this time period.

[St Paul Storm]

APX disco from evening update. Unique wording for any office 

 

 

Near-term guidance continues to generate heavy snow tonight in nw

lower MI. A few hours ago TVC proper was the primary target of

the RAP/HRRR, but recent runs has shifted this eastward to a

Northport-Kalkaska line. Something quite unpleasant is going to

happen tonight in that general area, and though specifics are

still to be pinned down, confidence is high enough to warrant an

upgrade to a warning in parts of nw lower MI.

Lol. “Something quite unpleasant”. We’re not really sure what’s gonna happen, but we know it’s gonna suck. Did the high school intern write that?

[jaster220]

Down here in GRRville, I see Nexrad picking up some nice streamers in their northern CWA. These must be low-level as there is not much signature on national radar scopes.

 

[Niko]

It is beautiful outside, considering its chilly. Temp at 25F.