November 2019 Observations and Discussion

[MIKEKC]

I don’t like the looks of the long range data. Looks quite warm the first 10 days of Dec.

 

Those getting snow today look to go over to rain this weekend. Then temps following that don’t look to sustain the snow pack. Hopefully the data is missing something otherwise we’re going to start Dec. just like we did last year, on a warming trend.

 

KC had a blizzard on Nov. 25th last year and then no accumulating snow until Jan. 12th. From there, winter was crazy good in KC with 11 more accumulating snows. Hopefully we can see Dec. turn cold and snowy on future runs of the data. I hate warm Dec.

 

Tom, nice work on calling for the Thanksgiving week big storm, I believe you called this a few weeks back. You also called for a cold fall for most, that has certainly been the case. Looking over my notes, you did mention a pull back the second half of Nov. into Dec. For KC, that is occurring as we have been above average on temps the last 10 days or so and look to continue that for the next 10 days.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

High pressure will settle in Thanksgiving Day and Friday. Rather
typical late November weather can be expected. Meanwhile, the next
big system to affect the central CONUS will wrap up much farther
west over the Northern Plains Friday and Saturday - before minoring
out and translating east into the region on Sunday. There is a very
high degree of uncertainty with the character of the system. Winter
precipitation is quite possible across Lower Michigan - but details
will be sketchy for quite some time.

[Hawkeye]

I don’t like the looks of the long range data. Looks quite warm the first 10 days of Dec.

 

Those getting snow today look to go over to rain this weekend. Then temps following that don’t look to sustain the snow pack. Hopefully the data is missing something otherwise we’re going to start Dec. just like we did last year, on a warming trend.

 

Yeah, the big arctic dump the GFS was advertising in early December is gone.  The GFS and Euro now show a more west-to-east flow with no real cold, or any snow, for the foreseeable future.

[Niko]

The big Arctic Express has now been washed away. I'm near 40 to possibly mid to upper 30s for highs throughout my whole 10 extended w some storminess from time to time. Now, keep in mind, my average highs are in the low to mid 40s, so, yes, BN temps for my area, which Im fine w. No complaints there.

[Stacsh]

Yeah, the big arctic dump the GFS was advertising in early December is gone.  The GFS and Euro now show a more west-to-east flow with no real cold, or any snow, for the foreseeable future.

 

You mean the GFS greatly exaggerated cold in the long range again? shocking.  It will get pushed back every week until January, which is fine.  Decembers have been relatively warm here lately.  It's pretty much the norm.  Most the cold is on the other side of the world for now.  

[GDR]

I think once again December won’t be epic but hopefully not like the past few. But I’m not holding my breath

[Clinton]

NOAA:

 

High pressure will settle in Thanksgiving Day and Friday. Rather

typical late November weather can be expected. Meanwhile, the next

big system to affect the central CONUS will wrap up much farther

west over the Northern Plains Friday and Saturday - before minoring

out and translating east into the region on Sunday. There is a very

high degree of uncertainty with the character of the system. Winter

precipitation is quite possible across Lower Michigan - but details

will be sketchy for quite some time.

I think the models after Friday are nuts right now.

[Niko]

I think the models after Friday are nuts right now.

I agree. Clueless.

 

Its sad to think that after today's technology, there is such low confidence, even in 2 days within a storm, let alone 4 or 5 days down the road.

[westMJim]

At this time the sun is out and the temperature is now up to 46 here at my house.

[Niko]

Clinton--

 

With this system (26-28th timeframe), I am guessing you are a little off from the main snows, no?!

[Niko]

At this time the sun is out and the temperature is now up to 46 here at my house.

46 here....beautiful!

[Clinton]

Clinton--

 

With this system (26-28th timeframe), I am guessing you are a little off from the main snows, no?!

Yes, I actually have a shot at severe storms tonight.

[GDR]

[GDR]

Not much snow in my area for the next couple weeks

[bud2380]

Not much snow in my area for the next couple weeks

Where are you located?

[GDR]

Se iowa

[Minny_Weather]

 

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Cleveland OH

205 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

 

OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-270315-

/O.UPG.KCLE.WI.Y.0014.191127T1200Z-191128T0900Z/

/O.NEW.KCLE.HW.W.0003.191127T1200Z-191128T0400Z/

Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-

Wyandot-Crawford-Marion-

Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Port Clinton,

Fremont, Sandusky, Lorain, Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk,

Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, and Marion

205 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

 

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

 

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph

expected.

 

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Ohio.

 

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 11 PM EST Wednesday.

 

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.

Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be

difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around

trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of

your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if

you must drive.

Kinda sad I'll be missing this, but I'll get to enjoy the storm in CA.

[jaster220]

Yep..should be whiter.

LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)

Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

 

High Impact Weather: Another potentially strong storm over Weekend

 

Thanks to the strong Canadian high passing by to our north, Friday

will continue the tranquil and mostly dry conditions. Don`t think

precip chances really enter the picture until Friday night as

synoptic moisture returns ahead of the next Plains system. A deep

west coast trough with a kicker wave rounding its base allows energy

to eject out into the central High Plains. This energy quickly

becomes a bowling ball of a cut-off low barreling straight toward

the Great Lakes before dropping south. Of course all this could (and

likely will) change in the next few days. But guidance has been

suggesting for a while now that this could bring widespread rain,

snow, and everything in between.

 

 

Could get interesting..

[Tom]

I don’t like the looks of the long range data. Looks quite warm the first 10 days of Dec.

 

Those getting snow today look to go over to rain this weekend. Then temps following that don’t look to sustain the snow pack. Hopefully the data is missing something otherwise we’re going to start Dec. just like we did last year, on a warming trend.

 

KC had a blizzard on Nov. 25th last year and then no accumulating snow until Jan. 12th. From there, winter was crazy good in KC with 11 more accumulating snows. Hopefully we can see Dec. turn cold and snowy on future runs of the data. I hate warm Dec.

 

Tom, nice work on calling for the Thanksgiving week big storm, I believe you called this a few weeks back. You also called for a cold fall for most, that has certainly been the case. Looking over my notes, you did mention a pull back the second half of Nov. into Dec. For KC, that is occurring as we have been above average on temps the last 10 days or so and look to continue that for the next 10 days.

Thanks Mike...It didn’t quite work out the way I had envisioned in Sept or Nov. Indian Summer never really made it up this way in Nov but it certainly did the farther south and west from here.

 

As for the pattern into Dec, I should’ve known better that when a Strat Warm happens it does spike the AO/NAO for a period. Dang models had me fooled the cold was coming back earlier than what I originally thought. Does Severe winter start mid & late month? I’m still believing in this to happen. Let’s see what nature has in store.

[Stormy]

Se iowa

I thought you’re in central Iowa, a little south of Des Moines. What is your town name?

[jaster220]

I agree. Clueless.

 

Its sad to think that after today's technology, there is such low confidence, even in 2 days within a storm, let alone 4 or 5 days down the road.

MAKES IT MORE INTERESTING IMHO

[jaster220]

Thanks Mike...It didn’t quite work out the way I had envisioned in Sept or Nov. Indian Summer never really made it up this way in Nov but it certainly did the farther south and west from here.

As for the pattern into Dec, I should’ve known better that when a Strat Warm happens it does spike the AO/NAO for a period. Dang models had me fooled the cold was coming back earlier than what I originally thought. Does Severe winter start mid & late month? I’m still believing in this to happen. Let’s see what nature has in store.

Yep. From what JB showed it will eventually swing back to N America. Get ready when it does!

[jaster220]

You mean the GFS greatly exaggerated cold in the long range again? shocking.  It will get pushed back every week until January, which is fine.  Decembers have been relatively warm here lately.  It's pretty much the norm.  Most the cold is on the other side of the world for now.

 

Dec's 2016 and 2017 were huge for Marshall. Avg is 10" but we had 24" and 27" respectively. Only last year was super Dudley.

[Stormy]

Looking back, here’s an Iowa map of the big snowfall yesterday 1 year ago. It’s a tad low for my place, but talk about a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts on the north side!

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2018-11-26

[GDR]

I thought you’re in central Iowa, a little south of Des Moines. What is your town name?

Near Oskaloosa Iowa so yeah south east of Des Moines

[Niko]

MAKES IT MORE INTERESTING IMHO

Easy w the caps amigo! 

[Niko]

LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)

Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

 

High Impact Weather: Another potentially strong storm over Weekend

 

Thanks to the strong Canadian high passing by to our north, Friday

will continue the tranquil and mostly dry conditions. Don`t think

precip chances really enter the picture until Friday night as

synoptic moisture returns ahead of the next Plains system. A deep

west coast trough with a kicker wave rounding its base allows energy

to eject out into the central High Plains. This energy quickly

becomes a bowling ball of a cut-off low barreling straight toward

the Great Lakes before dropping south. Of course all this could (and

likely will) change in the next few days. But guidance has been

suggesting for a while now that this could bring widespread rain,

snow, and everything in between.

 

 

Could get interesting..

Indeed..bears watching. Watch us get several inches outta nowhere.

[badgerwx]

I'm getting concerned for the month of December...

 

In Tom we Trust...but where is the cold where is the snow? I need a White Christmas!

[Niko]

Looking back, here’s an Iowa map of the big snowfall yesterday 1 year ago. It’s a tad low for my place, but talk about a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts on the north side!

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2018-11-26

Wow!

[Niko]

Yes, I actually have a shot at severe storms tonight.

Awesome...there is something ya dont expect to get in late November. Hope ya get loud ones!

[Stacsh]

Well, except for wind and some rain and maybe some backside snow (only to melt quickly)  to end out November...I guess I'll see you all in the December (probably mid-december)  thread.  

[OKwx2k4]

With the coming AO spike looking at least semi-real, should see at least an explosion of ice growth over the arctic.

 

As Tom stated, a spike like that (often, but not always) is a leader to a clean split of the AO in a few weeks. Also, much like Tom's statement about getting the timing right, I missed things by 7-10 days here due to the timing also, but it's been an incredibly remarkable fall so far, as we both stated at summer's close.

 

Should make for an incredible winter, whether it happens in my backyard or not.

[snowstorm83]

All snow now but meh rates. 1/2” or so of sleet/snow

[Stormy]

[jaster220]

Looking back, here’s an Iowa map of the big snowfall yesterday 1 year ago. It’s a tad low for my place, but talk about a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts on the north side!

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2018-11-26

 

Didn't realize how far south that was in Iowa. And this is nuts!

 

The featured map attempts to depict the extreme cut off between areas that received a foot of snow and those that got none. This border is as tight as 5 miles in some locations.

[jaster220]

Easy w the caps amigo! 

 

haha, didn't even notice that - was using my phone which I normally don't for typing stuff. 

[Niko]

Well, except for wind and some rain and maybe some backside snow (only to melt quickly)  to end out November...I guess I'll see you all in the December (probably mid-december)  thread.  

I agree. If not later. Unless something changes. The good thing is that BN temps are in store.

[Niko]

Attm, mild w some light spotty showers. Temp at 45F.

[jaster220]

What an active map! APX's CWA has 14 hazards currently. 

 

[Niko]

Windy day shaping up for tomorrow as winds could gusts quite high. Should bring my bins inside.