November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

It appears the GFS out did the ECMWF and EPS again.  Those models have changed dramatically over the past couple of days.  Looks like a decently chilly tough about a week out.

 

 

I think the GFS has changed dramatically over the past couple days as well.

 

 

From this...

 

 

 

To this...

 

[TT-SEA]

EPS still not showing any cold air... and generally drier than normal over the next 15 days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its almost the middle of November now.   

 

The EPS did pretty well for the first part of November.   850mb temps have been warmer than normal all month... and precip has been way below normal.

 

There is no surface temp anomaly map on the EPS... surface temps have been below normal in places because of a lack of clouds and precip (better radiational cooling).   But the 850mb temps have been warmer than normal every day this month.   And that looks to continue.   The 00Z ECMWF showed warmer than normal 850mb temps on 9 of the next 10 days.

[Jesse]

Fog cleared out for a gorgeous sunrise this morning.

 

Low of 42.

[Jesse]

06z looks great. Glad to see we may finally be entering a wetter and more active pattern soon.

[Jesse]

Indeed.  For WA it was the second coldest since 1895.

 

Which year was #1?

[TacomaWaWx]

Yup. Gonna slide east.

Way too early to even tell. Some of these air masses have slid East this fall, but don’t forget it can change just like that. I’m 99% sure at some point it’ll flip back to western troughing. We had several of those air masses hit the western lowlands albeit in September in October. Like some of us have said this was one of the coldest October’s ever, that’s no small deal. That’s a good sign that at some point this winter it’ll be back. Maybe not this month, but December and January seem prime.

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 47 this morning and cloudy. No precipitation overnight.

[TT-SEA]

Side note... the EPS has a more zonal flow look after this week as well. Evidenced by the lack of cold air across the CONUS.

 

And it can be drier than normal and still frequently wet in late November.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Happy Veteran's Day! Thank you for your service, your sacrifice and your hard work protecting our freedom.

 

[TT-SEA]

Sunrise over fog in Seattle again this morning...

 

 

 

No fog out here.   An east wind and 52 this morning.

[Kayla]

EPS still not showing any cold air... and generally drier than normal over the next 15 days.

 

 

 

Its almost the middle of November now.   

 

The EPS did pretty well for the first part of November.   850mb temps have been warmer than normal all month... and precip has been way below normal.

 

There is no surface temp anomaly map on the EPS... surface temps have been below normal in places because of a lack of clouds and precip (better radiational cooling).   But the 850mb temps have been warmer than normal every day this month.   And that looks to continue.   The 00Z ECMWF showed warmer than normal 850mb temps on 9 of the next 10 days.

 

You really like those 850mb anomaly maps now don't you?? As you know, ensemble runs are smoothed out so using those near surface maps on days 10-15 is not painting the whole picture and the EPS notoriously paints way too much warmth in the long range.

 

It's much more accurate to be looking at the upper level pattern in the long term to look for trends and the EPS is clearly trending away from higher heights and shifting them out into the NPAC. 

 

Days 3-8

 

Days 10-15

[TT-SEA]

You really like those 850mb anomaly maps now don't you?? As you know, ensemble runs are smoothed out so using those near surface maps in day 10-15 is not painting the whole picture and the EPS notoriously paints way too much warmth in the long range.

 

It's much more accurate to be looking at the upper level pattern in the long term to look for trends and the EPS is clearly trending away from higher heights and shifting them out into the NPAC. 

 

First of all... 850mb temps are very important at this time of year in determining if there will be any cold air for mountain snow or even lowland snow.   We track 850mb temps religiously in the cold season.

 

Second... I said the EPS now shows more zonal flow and precip now after this week.   Time is passing.    We are looking at late November now.

 

Finally... the EPS most definitely can show cold 850mb temps.      And even a show strong signal for cold temps in the 10-15 day range.    The EPS consistently showed very cold 850mb temps over us for 6 weeks straight last February into March!

 

It was also showing a strong signal for cold this coming week in the middle of the country back when that period was in the 10-15 day range.   And its happening now.

 

You just don't like what its showing now.    There is no strong signal for cold 850mb temps in the 7-15 day period in North America.   Not right now anyways.   Its not like it will always show warmth in the long range.    That is incorrect.

[Kayla]

First of all... 850mb temps are very important at this time of year in determining if there will be any cold air for mountain snow or even lowland snow.   We track 850mb temps religiously in the cold season.

 

Second... I said the EPS now shows more zonal flow and precip now after this week.

 

Finally... the EPS most definitely can show cold 850mb temps.      And even a show strong signal for cold temps in the 10-15 day range.    The EPS consistently showed very cold 850mb temps over us for 6 weeks straight last February into March!

 

It was also showing a strong signal for cold this coming week in the middle of the country back when that period was in the 10-15 day range.   And its happening now.

 

You just don't like what its showing now.    There is no strong signal for cold 850mb temps in the 7-15 day period in North America.   Not right now anyways.   Its not like it will always show warmth in the long range.    That is incorrect.

 

Tracking 850mb temps (or surface temps) on the EPS on days 10+ isn't going to be very accurate is my point.

 

Better to look at the overall upper level trends in the long range ensembles but I know this doesn't fit your narrative. 

[TT-SEA]

One more note... I think heavy rain when I see warm 850mb temps in the long range at this time of year.

 

I would much prefer to see cold air across the entire western US.

[Tyler Mode]

Amazing sunrise this morning and as I drove around I noticed a slight east wind in the foothills keeping temps in the mid 50's while my temp was 39.  Love our micro-climates.

[TT-SEA]

Tracking 850mb temps on the EPS on days 10+ isn't going to be very accurate is my point.

 

Better to look at the overall upper level trends in the long range ensembles but I know this doesn't fit your narrative. 

 

Precip anomalies are pretty telling as well in terms of the overall pattern.  

 

I said the EPS is becoming more zonal after this week.    And again... I would prefer colder air across the west which would be drier and sunnier here.    Warm 850mb temps at this time of year can get pretty ugly around here unless there is a sharp ridge... and that will not be the case going forward. 

[TT-SEA]

Tracking 850mb temps (or surface temps) on the EPS on days 10+ isn't going to be very accurate is my point.

 

Better to look at the overall upper level trends in the long range ensembles but I know this doesn't fit your narrative.

 

I think tracking 850mb temps in the 10-15 day range is extremely valuable.

 

Strong signals for cold at that range are very telling. I watched it happen for 6 straight weeks earlier this year... and it stayed cold for 6 straight weeks!

[BLI snowman]

Which year was #1?

 

1905.

 

Mid March!

[BLI snowman]

Amazing sunrise this morning and as I drove around I noticed a slight east wind in the foothills keeping temps in the mid 50's while my temp was 39.  Love our micro-climates.

 

Yeah, 51 for a low over at TTD with a modest but steady east wind. 44 at PDX and 41 at VUO.

[TT-SEA]

When the EPS shows a strong signal for cold in the long range... it will suddenly become very relevant and very important again.

[Jesse]

Amazing sunrise this morning and as I drove around I noticed a slight east wind in the foothills keeping temps in the mid 50's while my temp was 39.  Love our micro-climates.

 

The sunrise was gorgeous. I wasn't able to get a great photo of it, but looking forward to seeing yours!

[TT-SEA]

GFS is clearly struggling too.  

 

For the middle of next week... it has gone from this:

 

 

 

To this now on the 12Z run:

 

[Tyler Mode]

The sunrise was gorgeous. I wasn't able to get a great photo of it, but looking forward to seeing yours!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z doesn't look much different than the last couple of runs. 

[TT-SEA]

12z doesn't look much different than the last couple of runs. 

 

Except its more ridgy and dry for next week. 

 

Now this pattern is pushed out almost 2 weeks... rather than next week.    We will see if it holds this time. 

 

[Jesse]

 

The sunrise was gorgeous. I wasn't able to get a great photo of it, but looking forward to seeing yours!

 

 

Awesome!

 

On an unrelated note, where do you find an open field like that near Battleground these days? I figured most of them were gone. Maybe just a matter of time before that one becomes a Panda Express.

[TT-SEA]

Someone likes really saturated pics.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Except its more ridgy and dry for next week. 

 

Now this pattern is pushed out almost 2 weeks... rather than next week.    We will see if it holds this time. 

 

 

Who knows. Maybe it will never rain here again? 

[TT-SEA]

Who knows. Maybe it will never rain here again?

Going to rain tomorrow!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to rain tomorrow!

 

Not here .

 

Well...Maybe a trace...

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Canadian says we are wet through for the next 9 days.

 

[Jesse]

Not here .

 

Well...Maybe a trace...

 

 

Tomorrow has definitely trended a little cooler and rainier. Could be another day with highs in the low 50s and a couple tenths of rain.

[TT-SEA]

General theme of the 12Z GFS is for ridging to keep popping back up over us.   There are periods when the ridging breaks down, but then is comes right back again.

 

Probably drier than normal overall... but definitely not dry.     And generally warmer than normal 850mb temps with a few intrusions of cooler air.

[TT-SEA]

Per the 12Z GFS... 10 out of the next 16 days are basically dry.   But there are some wet systems mixed in as well.   Not bad for mid to late November.

[Tyler Mode]

Awesome!

 

On an unrelated note, where do you find an open field like that near Battleground these days? I figured most of them were gone. Maybe just a matter of time before that one becomes a Panda Express.

It's getting harder and harder...it's just off 503.  I have a couple of locations I still use though.

[Tyler Mode]

Only because Tim's opinion matters to me...a couple pictures of what the camera got...PRE saturdation

Someone likes really saturated pics.

[TT-SEA]

Only because Tim's opinion matters to me...a couple pictures of what the camera got...PRE saturdation

I love your pics! But someone rides me for just taking pics with my Galaxy phone and posting them. Most of the time without even looking at them first.

[Jesse]

Only because Tim's opinion matters to me...a couple pictures of what the camera got...PRE saturdation

I saw the sunrise, and that was really how colorful it was. You captured it well.

[Jesse]

Niiiice.

 

[TT-SEA]

 

If I posted the same pics of the sunrise this morning that looked that brilliant... it would be mocked by the same person.