November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles - Well, I've seen worse. Still gets a bit chilly.

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs gets wet in the clown range, but not very wet at all for November through day 10. Could make a run at being the driest November’s I’ve recorded in the last 15 years. 3.21” in 2007 is the driest at the moment we need 2.44” to avoid that.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'll rejoice in the coming cold(cool) pool.... Before we either head into a pattern change or retrogression commences.

 

00z EPS in 2 hours 50 minutes

[MossMan]

.34” on the day. Currently 45 degrees.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro brings Monday’s system further south than the GFS. The majority of the rain falls south of Seattle

[umadbro]

About 100 feet of visibility right now. Thickest fog I've seen in a few years.

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian ensembles big retrogression with a modest southeast US ridge. Just need a bit more amplification/tilt.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 7 Day Rainfall Totals

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

I’ve got my extrapolation easel all set up, standing by for hour 240!

[TT-SEA]

Rain is basically over by Monday evening... then dry for the rest of the run.

 

That crazy consistent EPS was sure wrong about a blocky and generally dry November.  

 

Split flow mania even in the long range on the 00Z ECMWF:

 

[TT-SEA]

I’ve got my extrapolation easel all set up, standing by for hour 240!

5 days ago and 4 days ago and 3 days ago and 2 days ago... the ECMWF was going some place special at day 10.

 

Today is no exception... we have a repeat of Monday's trough coming in again.

[Gradient Keeper]

Very ugly

[Gradient Keeper]

We all might as well take a break for 4-5 days and then see how models look..... Right. Like we'd ever do that.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 25 minutes

 

Good night

[Deweydog]

Could be nice leaf blower shopping weather next weekend.

[TacomaWaWx]

Really getting the feeling we are going to pay big time for all this boring weather we’re having now at some point. Went through a period of active weather 9/7-10/31, boring period the last 2 weeks...will probably last a couple more weeks then BOOM.

[Jesse]

Could be nice leaf blower shopping weather next weekend.

You’re welcome.

[jakeinthevalley]

Could be nice leaf blower shopping weather next weekend.

Almost time for the year end close out sales.

 

Kind of like shopping for snow blowers in May

[ShawniganLake]

The polar Vortex looks to take a beating

 

[ChilliwackBCwx]

What's wrong with the 00Z Euro? low placement isn't very good for mountain snow.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Seems like we went through this last year rinse and repeat c**p. I think that's when we start bailing take a break for awhile enjoy some family time and your Seahawks my oh my! bye week I believe. Finish up chores around the house your Thanksgiving holiday's are right around the corner. Love this time of year it even feels like the official kick off to Christmas season up here as well. The models will still be there when you look again maybe they will look better then.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

The polar Vortex looks to take a beating

 

C5C0AE09-2158-47D7-8F06-039B79CFA8EF.png4452953A-111C-4602-90A2-2FD885CE6B76.png

Geez! it looks like it's shrinking kinda like when you stand outside too long in the cold (guy's would understand)

[Jesse]

Dense fog this morning. Low of 42.

 

Picked up only .15” precip yesterday, with a high of 56.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 44 this morning and cloudy here.

[Jesse]

Seems like we went through this last year rinse and repeat c**p. I think that's when we start bailing take a break for awhile enjoy some family time and your Seahawks my oh my! bye week I believe. Finish up chores around the house your Thanksgiving holiday's are right around the corner. Love this time of year it even feels like the official kick off to Christmas season up here as well. The models will still be there when you look again maybe they will look better then.

Will you be with your pals Pokey, Prickle and Goo?

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs isn’t very wet over the next 5 days, even less so south of the WA/OR border. Vancouver island is the bullseye of the precip with 2-3” there but only 0.5”-1.0” predicted over the next few days in western WA, 0.10”-0.50” in western OR.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

47F and cloudy.

[Blizzard777]

Really getting the feeling we are going to pay big time for all this boring weather we’re having now at some point. Went through a period of active weather 9/7-10/31, boring period the last 2 weeks...will probably last a couple more weeks then BOOM.

Exactly , it will happen too! 

I have no doubt 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Really getting the feeling we are going to pay big time for all this boring weather we’re having now at some point. Went through a period of active weather 9/7-10/31, boring period the last 2 weeks...will probably last a couple more weeks then BOOM.

Would be nice but I’m just not feeling it anymore. I thought that cold October was going to lead us into a stretch where we saw more regular periods of cold but instead we have had 02-03 redux to this point. That was a year where the 534 thickness line never even made it to the Willamette Valley.

[Timmy Supercell]

34 and fog, was upper 20's just before sunrise.

 

Nice to see the fog making more of a comeback. I live in a pretty foggy place on average in the Fall and Winter seasons, and I've had countless clear mornings here in 2019.

[Jesse]

Would be nice but I’m just not feeling it anymore. I thought that cold October was going to lead us into a stretch where we saw more regular periods of cold but instead we have had 02-03 redux to this point. That was a year where the 534 thickness line never even made it to the Willamette Valley.

October 2002 wasn’t even cold like this October, it just had some cold at the end.

[TacomaWaWx]

Would be nice but I’m just not feeling it anymore. I thought that cold October was going to lead us into a stretch where we saw more regular periods of cold but instead we have had 02-03 redux to this point. That was a year where the 534 thickness line never even made it to the Willamette Valley.

We will see, you honestly never know. Most people considered last winter a lost cause. It’s never over until it’s over.

Things can change so quickly, we were very active in terms of weather in September and October, pattern couldn’t stay like that forever so it flipped. This pattern won’t stick with us the entirety of the winter, although I do think split flow will be with us for most of the winter. I wouldn’t be surprised if this pattern we were in stayed with us for a few more weeks before a shift into something else.

[Timmy Supercell]

October 2002 wasn’t even cold like this October, it just had some cold at the end.

 

Oct 2019 might have even had a lower mean temperature than 2002 in some locations, including here. It was a more consistent cold last month.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Destructive storms even in the Banana belt!!!

lol, those were awesome ice storms back then

should read Hanwood Lane Oak Grove area

Wow, that's the type of picture I'd expect near the Gorge not in the Milwaukie dome! I read good things about the January 7-10, 1980 snow/ice storms. Must of been one heck of a messy transition event getting out of all the cold air.

[Jesse]

Oct 2019 might have even had a lower mean temperature than 2002 in some locations, including here. It was a more consistent cold last month.

Might have? 2019 was colder than 2002 across the board. There’s really no contest.

 

PDX’s mean temperature was three degrees colder in 2019 than 2002.

[Blizzard777]

We’re still on the lift hill prior to this winter getting crazy if this is indeed a neutral ENSO!  
patiently waiting in line for 6 weeks of craziness 

 

currently 43* and dull looking outside 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS When looking at the 850s just enough intrusion of Canadian air and definite cold pool signature is showing.

[Jesse]

12z GFS When looking at the 850s just enough intrusion of Canadian air and definite cold pool signature is showing.

Better than nothing I suppose.

[MossMan]

Some dribbles here in Lynden currently.

[Omegaraptor]

It’s November 16. Winter hasn’t even started.

[Blizzard777]

Wow, that's the type of picture I'd expect near the Gorge not in the Milwaukie dome! I read good things about the January 7-10, 1980 snow/ice storms. Must of been one heck of a messy transition event getting out of all the cold air.

Not sure how PGE felt about those storms!

Dad loved them though.  He would stoke the wood stove getting are house to 100* and open doors to let cool air in. He was a proud man reliving those days on the farm in North Dakota!  

Us kids would play that hand held football game endlessly as we weren’t allowed outside due to falling tree branches and getting hit by ice bombs!