November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[The Swamp]

i want to build a god damned snow monster in my front yard before the end of the year D**n it

[Requiem]

 

GEM is definitely north with the low.

[The Swamp]

It’s an experimental model which combines the use of analogs to produce the most accurate prognostications of backdoor penetrations.

 

sounds like a model that is best suited to all those fruits in Portland

[The Swamp]

 

GEM is definitely north with the low.

that shows rain almost up to Olympia

i thought it would be colder

[TigerWoodsLibido]

that shows rain almost up to Olympia

i thought it would be colder

Not cold enough to the east.

[Deweydog]

[The Swamp]

Not cold enough to the east.

i see that

kind of a bummer

looking at 42 degrees and a drizzle fest

[The Swamp]

i'm low on whiskey and time

check you all out some other time

[Esquimalt]

Ensembles MUCH improved in the mid to long range. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

GEM is definitely north with the low.

I could see Eugene doing suprisingly well with this event. Especially closer to the Cascade foothills.

[catnip]

Also MossMan and AndyfromWoodinville are the only people who can put me on mod preview.

Whatever happened to Andy?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

 

[Gradient Keeper]

No night shift for me again. Exhausted. IF my knee doesn't cooperate I suppose there is a small chance.

[Esquimalt]

GEM ensembles bottom the trough out a full degree cooler than this mornings!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. 00z GEM/CMCE Ensembles MUCH colder for PDX even more than the GEFS. I DID NOT see this coming. PDX mean temp -10c! The Dalles -12c.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Low is shifting a notch north like other models  ... nice.

 

CURRENT

 

 

 

PREVIOUS

 

[MossMan]

Whatever happened to Andy?

He just posted a summary about 20min ago on the Facebook page!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Low quite a bit north on this run.  I think it was stronger too.

 

0Z:

 

12Z

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

But 6 hours later it is making a run for the border,

[Gradient Keeper]

Huge southern OR snow storm! Dang.

 

Day 5

 

[snow_wizard]

I'm just blown away by the way the models continue to trend notably colder with the situation next week and the stuff further out.  The next two weeks could be something to write home about.

[snow_wizard]

But 6 hours later it is making a run for the border,

 

It makes me shiver just looking at those straight northerly gradients over WA.  This is going to be solidly cold for us without a doubt.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It makes me shiver just looking at those straight northerly gradients over WA.  This is going to be solidly cold for us without a doubt.

Temps are pretty much the same though as the last few runs.

[luvssnow_spokane]

850’s Trending a notch colder on this run too... BRING IT! 
 

CURRENT

 

 

PREVIOUS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[Cloud]

Thanksgiving looks really cold and dry.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

850’s Trending a notch colder on this run too... BRING IT! 

 

CURRENT

B1A44F80-F306-48BF-88E0-C675A5948AA1.png

 

 

PREVIOUS

0622A85E-C62C-477C-B62B-A05234953460.png

Eastern WA definitely a bit colder at day 7, Western WA/OR about the same

[luvssnow_spokane]

Eastern WA definitely a bit colder at day 7, Western WA/OR about the same

Yes, very similar at the surface - 850’s are cooler. I like the gradual improvement. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8  00z models tonight diverge quite a bit after Day 6

 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF took away ice event for Sunday... totally dry now.

[snow_wizard]

Day 8  00z models tonight diverge quite a bit after Day 6

 

 

The GOA block seems to be setting up nicely.  That thing has potential to make this coming week look like nothing.

[TT-SEA]

Thanksgiving looks really cold and dry.

Probably low 40s and sunny... not bad.

[Requiem]

ECMWF took away ice event for Sunday... totally dry now.

 

Lots of uncertainty after day six or so.

[Cloud]

Probably low 40s and sunny... not bad.

And lows in the mid 20s for Seattle. Colder in the outlier areas. Thinking it’ll be the coldest day of the week.

[TT-SEA]

And lows in the mid 20s for Seattle. Colder in the outlier areas. Thinking it’ll be the coldest day of the week.

Probably the coldest day.

[HighlandExperience]

Probably low 40s and sunny... not bad.

Sounds boring