November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy]

You, Mat and Timmy are sitting pretty right now.

Scappoose isn’t going to do well in this setup

[Guest CulverJosh]

I was looking at hourly precip chances vs temps from Tuesday night through Wednesday and looks like things could overperform big time.  If you live in West Bend down through Sunriver and LaPine you better service your snowblower.  Could be a 16-20"er down there.  Thinking more like 5 or 6 from Redmond north to maybe Madras, out to Prineville.  Subject to change of course if we can get some stalled bands up here.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Actually would be a fun little event to do some late season hunting up in the southern coast range .  Could be some fun above 2000' down there.

[Esquimalt]

Holy .  Unreal ensemble improvement.   

[Deweydog]

Thanksgiving

[GHweatherChris]

Thanksgiving

Hey, that's this Thursday, year sure is flying by.

[TacomaWaWx]

Interesting times ahead...winter is coming. Good gfs run quite interesting.

[High Desert Mat?]

Actually would be a fun little event to do some late season hunting up in the southern coast range . Could be some fun above 2000' down there.

You hunt? Since when? Lol

[Deweydog]

Consolidated jet!

 

Can those actually happen anymore?

[Guest CulverJosh]

You hunt? Since when? Lol

With a duffle bag full of beers.  Hey Mat?

[Omegaraptor]

Consolidated jet!

 

Can those actually happen anymore?

 

Only in California.

[Andrew.]

Hmmm via the NWS for Portland.

 

Tuesday Night

 

Rain showers likely before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level 1100 feet lowering to 300 feet. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Blustery, with an east northeast wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

 

Wednesday

 

A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Breezy.

[SnarkyGoblin]

I don't participate in cheerleading... that is for sure. I think its silly. But I also post lots of maps when things really get good.

I just came here to say that, as a non-regular visitor, seeing folks who are not constantly wishcasting is refreshing.

 

I appreciate every one's point of view & analysis (please continue with the maps, etc), but good God a few of you are wayyyyy too sensitive to trolling and are far more guilty with your personal attacks.

 

I also suspect I am in the silent majority with this opinion.

[Requiem]

According to one meteogram the 18Z MOS is spitting out an obscene 46 mph sustained wind at PDX on Tuesday night. Won't happen, but that's kinda crazy.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I just came here to say that, as a non-regular visitor, seeing folks who are not constantly wishcasting is refreshing.

 

I appreciate every one's point of view & analysis (please continue with the maps, etc), but good God a few of you are wayyyyy too sensitive to trolling and are far more guilty with your personal attacks.

 

I also suspect I am in the silent majority with this opinion.

 

Not silent.  Some of us actually speak our mind.  It is the majority.

[High Desert Mat?]

Not silent. Some of us actually speak our mind. It is the majority.

Troll!!!!

[Guest CulverJosh]

If you were to watch HLN, CNN, MSNBC, Weather Channel, or any other supposed news station in this country, you would think that nobody lives West of the Mississippi.  

 

Well, that is unless something happens in Phoenix, San Francisco or Los Angeles.

[HighlandExperience]

If you were to watch HLN, CNN, MSNBC, Weather Channel, or any other supposed news station in this country, you would think that nobody lives West of the Mississippi.

 

Well, that is unless something happens in Phoenix, San Francisco or Los Angeles.

Pretty much you don’t exist to them.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Pretty much you don’t exist to them.

Yep.  I was watching last winter when a huge storm was plowing into Washington/Oregon in February.....the newscaster on HLN just stood in front of the Western 3rd of the country talking about a developing storm that may hit the east coast in 4 days.  Our storm .

[Anti Marine Layer]

If you were to watch HLN, CNN, MSNBC, Weather Channel, or any other supposed news station in this country, you would think that nobody lives West of the Mississippi.  

 

Well, that is unless something happens in Phoenix, San Francisco or Los Angeles.

There's fire season, which they fully blame on climate change and not bad forest management.

[Guest CulverJosh]

There's fire season, which they fully blame on climate change and not bad forest management.

And they ***** about power being shut down.  That saves a lot of lives doesnt it?  I am sure you are given the information you need before they do these shutdowns?  

 

99% of people wouldn't survive the way our ancestors did.

[TacomaWaWx]

I just came here to say that, as a non-regular visitor, seeing folks who are not constantly wishcasting is refreshing.

I appreciate every one's point of view & analysis (please continue with the maps, etc), but good God a few of you are wayyyyy too sensitive to trolling and are far more guilty with your personal attacks.

I also suspect I am in the silent majority with this opinion.

It’s unfortunate that there’s a lot of personal BS on here. Kind of why I trying to not even say anything about my personal life or insult people for the most part. If I do insult/troll someone it’s not out of malice just fun but there’s a lot of malice on here unfortunately.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Give me a bucket of beer, a fishing pole, and a swiss army knife......I will figure it out.

 

 

Edit:  I should make that my slogan .

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Thanksgiving

Cold Turkey!

 

[GHweatherChris]

I just came here to say that, as a non-regular visitor, seeing folks who are not constantly wishcasting is refreshing.

 

I appreciate every one's point of view & analysis (please continue with the maps, etc), but good God a few of you are wayyyyy too sensitive to trolling and are far more guilty with your personal attacks.

 

I also suspect I am in the silent majority with this opinion.

Every single person on here wishcasts for what they want, if someone says they don't, they be lying!

[TacomaWaWx]

Every single person on here wishcasts for what they want, if someone says they don't, they be lying!

Spot on. Everyone has preferred weather, some people just wishcast harder than others one way or the other.

[snow_wizard]

The week two period continues to be shrouded in mist as far as how it will play out.  The potential is there for big time stuff.  The hardest part for the models to resolve is the way that low to our SW will interact with the northern branch of the jet stream.  There was big improvement on the 18z GFS ensemble especially on the 500mb mean so I'm cautiously optimistic about week two.  In the mean time the next week will be racking up some pretty big minus departures.

 

Looks like SW OR is going to have a major snow event.  Pretty impressive stuff going on.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I'm not an innocent party here by any means, but ten years of the same crap gets old.

 

As for the wish casters and snow map posters, there seems to be a schism in the community where you get those who are either pros or feel like they are like the pros and have to jump on every image marked with hour 384 because I'm sure someone will share that on Facebook and hours later the mob will be gathered with pitchforks and torches outside of Sandpoint, demanding that the NWS show a snow flake on their forecast. The other side of the community is overly emotionally invested in Kucheria ratios and frames from the CFS, maybe even going as in so far to tout some Russian astro physicist claim to a new ice age just around the corner.

 

As it relates to this forum, everyone on this spectrum, and in between, should feel comfortable to post and share. Maybe I am doing a shitty job as an admin, but I would like to think that the somewhat lax moderation hand and churn of content from the serious and the "this snow map from the CFS" serious would make for a community that has a bit of everything for the weather geek and offer a bit of camaraderie for what is probably a weird thing to be interested in.

Very true Fred.  We must be weird.  Let us look at the percentage of people in the PNW that post on this forum.  I don't know anyone else other than my brother and I, here east of the Cascades.  And there are what?  Maybe 30 or less regulars on the Westside of the Cascades from Eugene up to the Canadian border?  We are nuts.

[TT-SEA]

The week two period continues to be shrouded in mist as far as how it will play out.  The potential is there for big time stuff.  The hardest part for the models to resolve is the way that low to our SW will interact with the northern branch of the jet stream.  There was big improvement on the 18z GFS ensemble especially on the 500mb mean so I'm cautiously optimistic about week two.  In the mean time the next week will be racking up some pretty big minus departures.

 

Looks like SW OR is going to have a major snow event.  Pretty impressive stuff going on.

 

 

I am pretty sure this entire winter will be ripe with potential.    We usually wait forever to see the kind of blocking that is seemingly the default this winter.   

[Phil]

Yep. I was watching last winter when a huge storm was plowing into Washington/Oregon in February.....the newscaster on HLN just stood in front of the Western 3rd of the country talking about a developing storm that may hit the east coast in 4 days. Our storm .

No one cares how much it snows on Mt. Hood.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not an innocent party here by any means, but ten years of the same crap gets old.

 

As for the wish casters and snow map posters, there seems to be a schism in the community where you get those who are either pros or feel like they are like the pros and have to jump on every image marked with hour 384 because I'm sure someone will share that on Facebook and hours later the mob will be gathered with pitchforks and torches outside of Sandpoint, demanding that the NWS show a snow flake on their forecast. The other side of the community is overly emotionally invested in Kucheria ratios and frames from the CFS, maybe even going as in so far to tout some Russian astro physicist claim to a new ice age just around the corner.

 

As it relates to this forum, everyone on this spectrum, and in between, should feel comfortable to post and share. Maybe I am doing a shitty job as an admin, but I would like to think that the somewhat lax moderation hand and churn of content from the serious and the "this snow map from the CFS" serious would make for a community that has a bit of everything for the weather geek and offer a bit of camaraderie for what is probably a weird thing to be interested in.

 

I think it's important for people to be able to post whatever they want that pertains to weather in the NW.  The members can sort through it and decide for themselves what is relevant.  Sometimes it's fun to post an outlandish CFS map.  Sometimes they actually come close to verifying.

[Guest CulverJosh]

No one cares how much it snows on Mt. Hood.

 

What a dumb statement.  It was widespread for a good portion of the PNW......millions of people.  Go troll an eastern forum.  

 

And I guarantee you that many care how much it snows there.  We depend on it. I was born and raised here, so quit it.  Troll.

[snow_wizard]

No one cares how much it snows on Mt. Hood.

 

I think he was referring to the big lowland snow event.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I think he was referring to the big lowland snow event.

he is just trolling.

[snow_wizard]

Very true Fred.  We must be weird.  Let us look at the percentage of people in the PNW that post on this forum.  I don't know anyone else other than my brother and I, here east of the Cascades.  And there are what?  Maybe 30 or less regulars on the Westside of the Cascades from Eugene up to the Canadian border?  We are nuts.

 

I think there are many people who are moderately interested, but not very many who take it to the extreme of people on the forum.

[Phil]

Haha. Fine, 3 people care if it snows on Mt. Hood.

 

Point is, TWC is trying to attract viewers. They’re not gonna waste time covering snowfalls in Eastern Oregon. They’d go out of business.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Haha. Fine, 3 people care if it snows on Mt. Hood.

 

Point is, TWC is trying to attract viewers. They’re not gonna waste time covering snowfalls in Eastern Oregon. They’d go out of business.

 

You are dense.  I am talking about last February.  Pull the crud out of your ears.  It wasn't Eastern OR.

[TacomaWaWx]

I am pretty sure this entire winter will be ripe with potential.    We usually wait forever to see the kind of blocking that is seemingly the default this winter.

 

It’ll set up for us in the right way at some point. We’ve just gotta wait. I’m pretty confident they’ll be something in terms of winter weather at some point in the next 3 months.

[Phil]

I think he was referring to the big lowland snow event.

The one last February? That was all over TWC. Literally front page on their website and app.

[TacomaWaWx]

I think there are many people who are moderately interested, but not very many who take it to the extreme of people on the forum.

yeah most people aren’t as keenly interesting as we are on here. Not that people don’t care about the weather it’s just we’re more interested and informed on the weather than the average joe is.