November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Requiem]

As much as I respect Mark and put him on the top of Mets in our area, I don't agree. I will be surprised if we don't see at the minimum 50mph, but I'm expecting 60mph+

 

60+!? You must be very confident that this is gonna be a bullish event. Most models are in the 30-40 range (NAM is going for 45-55 mph). No major mets have even highlighted the potential either.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z NAM a bit further south. The main difference on this run is the low develops just a touch later than previous runs. It still bottoms out at 968mb which is VERY strong! Landfall near Brookings.

 

That's gonna be a nice storm for Southern Oregon. If I lived a little closer, I'd be tempted to drive down there just to storm chase this system.

[Gradient Keeper]

60+!? You must be very confident that this is gonna be a bullish event. Most models are in the 30-40 range (NAM is going for 45-55 mph). No major mets have even highlighted the potential either.

Yep. Seriously.

[GHweatherChris]

Forecasts will use a blend, and that blend still bodes very well for my area. I am more of a Rob type forecaster.

 

Lets watch the it in real time on WV loop.

You asked.

[Guest CulverJosh]

You asked.

 

 

What is your elevation?  I know it can gain quite a bit once you go east of Aberdeen.

[Jesse]

That's gonna be a nice storm for Southern Oregon. If I lived a little closer, I'd be tempted to drive down there just to storm chase this system.

We’re actually staying in a cabin on the North Umpqua River east of Roseburg the next two nights. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a little snow tomorrow night or Tuesday.

[GHweatherChris]

What is your elevation? I know it can gain quite a bit once you go east of Aberdeen.

200 feet, but less than a mile from the Chehalis River so sometimes we get help from gap winds if strong enough during marginal events, I will not be surprised to see some flakes at some point this week.

[Deweydog]

Yep. Seriously.

Not a great setup for a mountain wave as winds at 700mb aren’t particularly impressive. We need that dynamic to see truly impressive winds. It’ll still be pretty breezy in the usual spots.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We’re actually staying in a cabin on the North Umpqua River east of Roseburg the next two nights. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a little snow tomorrow night or Tuesday.

Nice, have fun!

[Perturbed Member]

Mark thinks even the coast at Florence/Yachats could get some snow along with the valley from Eugene south. Probably kind of slushy stuff. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Good post by Mark.  Small fluctuations will make a huge difference.  We should all stay tuned.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Mark thinks even the coast at Florence/Yachats could get some snow along with the valley from Eugene south. Probably kind of slushy stuff.

Yeah, wouldn't surprise me. Some models have been showing that and Mark mentions it's possible with the system bombing out.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Cant wait to track this thing.  Too bad we have jobs.

[Kayla]

Not a great setup for a mountain wave as winds at 700mb aren’t particularly impressive. We need that dynamic to see truly impressive winds. It’ll still be pretty breezy in the usual spots.

 

Are you feeling okay?

[TacomaWaWx]

This ought to be very interesting weather coming up.

[Requiem]

Are you feeling okay?

 

Was he ill? 

[HighlandExperience]

I know. Much easier here to get the goods.

 

Love when it is widespread, I am rooting for everyone.

You do well no matter what

[Deweydog]

Are you feeling okay?

Yeah. Kinda confused. A little sweaty... Kinda hungry....

[Kayla]

Yeah. A little sweaty... Kinda hungry....

 

Phew, thought we lost you there for a minute...

[TacomaWaWx]

Phew, thought we lost you there for a minute...

same here. Probably the 4th or 5th time in the past year he’s made a Normal not Dewey like comment.

[Omegaraptor]

Anyone need anything from Costco?

[Deweydog]

same here. Probably the 4th or 5th time in the past year he’s made a Normal not Dewey like comment.

I’ll be good for at least three more leading up to the holy January.

[SouthHillFrosty]

A chicken bake and slice of Pep pls

Anyone need anything from Costco?

[Gradient Keeper]

Yep. Seriously.

Gust 50-60mph+

[Deweydog]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS !!!!

[Requiem]

Gust 50-60mph+

 

I'm still skeptical because the models aren't painting anything stronger than maybe some 45 mph gusts. NAM could go up to 50, but the others....

[snow_wizard]

Yeah. OTH-GEG peaks at -30mb! North Bend 980mb, Spokane 1010mb

 

One thing we haven't discussed much is wind potential from all of this.  A number of places could get some crazy / cold winds this week.  The WRF looks close to storm force winds for the San Juans and very windy for Bellingham.  Not to mention places south of the bomb when it comes ashore.  You don't see many sub 980 lows track that far south any time of year.

[snow_wizard]

I'm still skeptical because the models aren't painting anything stronger than maybe some 45 mph gusts. NAM could go up to 50, but the others....

 

I presume you're talking about places north of the low.  Just south of it they could be in for a ride.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Boom! Oregon special...

[Requiem]

I presume you're talking about places north of the low.  Just south of it they could be in for a ride.

 

Yeah, talking Portland-area downslope potential.

[snow_wizard]

same here. Probably the 4th or 5th time in the past year he’s made a Normal not Dewey like comment.

 

You know he's interested when he gets like this.  He can be quite insightful sometimes.

[snow_wizard]

Boom! Oregon special...

B5C7D54E-84AB-4922-98D0-EB033C6A20F7.png

 

That's getting far enough north to be interesting.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[TacomaWaWx]

Slightly north?

[Deweydog]

[Requiem]

WRF is very strange...

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

That's getting far enough north to be interesting.

As I shared the other day I would not be surprised to see this making landfall just a little south of Portland. Northward trend could likely continue.

[The Swamp]

OMG?

 

Did I miss something?

[Front Ranger]

Indeed, not dramatically different.

 

The tight clustering of the low center on the GEFS would suggest less likely odds of any more drastic changes to the low strength and track, at least on the GFS. It used to be a much more weakly defined cluster. Of course these lows that are bombing out always seem to throw a few surprises.

 

Remember though that the GEFS is no longer tied to the current GFS. It's based off the old GFS.