November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow, Even stronger than what models showed for the November 2014 event? I'm just hesitant because not a single met has mentioned the possibility (except Mark-- he said "strong" east winds).

Yep stronger than then. The difference then was deeper cold air sloshing over the Washington Cascades. However, 50kts at 800mb(6500') is pretty decent. I would like to see future runs of the MM5-NAM, WRF show 60kts+

[snow_wizard]

Day 9-10 EURO trying to go places

 

 

The 12z EPS control showed that block working out very well for us. We'll see what tonight's run shows.

[MossMan]

It was a fun filled B-Day complete with an early morning walk with the dogs while everyone else was still asleep, Seahawks, working in the yard, completing Christmas Lights, and BBQ’ing this evening. Nice day! Had a shower move through a bit ago adding to my total for the day... .16” and 3.43” for the month.

[Perturbed Member]

I wouldn’t live there if you paid me.

 

Why not? The traffic, homeless population and public defecation? We seem to have plenty of that in Portland too.

[snow_wizard]

00z WRF 976 Cape Blanco

 

North Bend 978/979mb, Spokane 1011mb OTH-GEG -32 to -33mb! Good lord. North Bend 978/979mb, Yakima 1005mb OTH-YKM -26 to -27mb. 4km Sounding PDX 7 PM Tuesday. WOW! Insane winds coming for PDX metro, Foothills.

 

 

 

 

The one mitigating factor could be there is so much northerly component to the surface gradient.  I know that is really going to limit east winds for my area this week.

[Gradient Keeper]

11:35 PM Radar Update

It has been awhile since we saw this. There is a band of moderate to heavy rain with torrential downpours from Vancouver up to Battle Ground and another area Kelso-Longview. That looks impressive!

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Why not? The traffic, homeless population and public defecation? We seem to have plenty of that in Portland too.

 

You have to love what the liberal mayors have allowed to happen in these once great cities.

[Jesse]

Why not? The traffic, homeless population and public defecation? We seem to have plenty of that in Portland too.

I don’t live in downtown Portland. Although none of those things really seem as bad as people on here make it out to be in either area. The hype is worse than the reality. The main reason I wouldn’t live in downtown Seattle is because their climate sucks.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM running

 

Where does NAMMY take the bomb low on Tuesday? Does the trend continue to shift the low south, or does it edge a bit north of 00z guidance? No idea.

[Cloud]

Band of moisture right over me and it's coming down at pretty good clip. Believe this something the HRRR was showing and not the ECMWF. Already picking up 0.05" in about 20 minutes. 

[Perturbed Member]

I don’t live in downtown Portland. Although none of those things really seem as bad as people on here make it out to be in either area. The hype is worse than the reality. The main reason I wouldn’t live in downtown Seattle is because their climate sucks.

 

Fair.

 

I lived in Seattle for a few years. I do prefer Portland's climate at least in the winter, I think it is capable of some slightly more interesting events due to the gorge. The PSCZ is handy though, I do miss that now that I live in the arid Washington county wasteland. I like Seattle's cooler summer weather hands down.

Really I think both their climates suck, at least their downtowns. I'm just glad Portland and Seattle are both surrounded by areas that have way better climates.

[Jesse]

Fair.

 

I lived in Seattle for a few years. I do prefer Portland's climate at least in the winter, I think it is capable of some slightly more interesting events due to the gorge. The PSCZ is handy though, I do miss that now that I live in the arid Washington county wasteland. I like Seattle's cooler summer weather hands down.

Really I think both their climates suck, at least their downtowns. I'm just glad Portland and Seattle are both surrounded by areas that have way better climates.

I would agree with all of this.

[Dave]

I knew I should have cleaned my gutters out. For the first time since 2002, moderate rain is occurring.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, low is developing a bit sooner and the jet on this run is at 185kts. 00z was 170-175kts. Prediction. Low is 967mb near North Bend.

[Gradient Keeper]

Low is north of 00z and 2mb stronger. My prediction is looking good.

 

[Jesse]

Night shift anybody?

I just had some cannabis tea about an hour ago and we’re about to go for a walk. Let’s do this Tiger.

[Requiem]

Nope! I LOSE. Landfall near Brookings. That Bob Grimes guy doesn't know s**t!

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 12 minutes

 

It is a smidgen north though, interestingly enough. Gradient is a bit tighter.

[Gradient Keeper]

OTH-GEG a very boring -30mb. Oh how about that snow painted over Western Washington? YEAH! C'MON!!

[Gradient Keeper]

970mb landfall Cape Blanco. OTH-GEG -32mb (North Bend 976mb, Spokane 1008mb)

 

[Cloud]

Transitional day. Gonna be a while 'til we see highs close to 50 again and many places will have a hard time reaching 40 this week for highs.

My body is ready for this.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Block is much stronger Day 2-3 than previous two runs.

 

[Meatyorologist]

That's a meaty wishcast there, hopefully it pans out...

Keyword "potential" 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS Day 10 a lot of potential once that eastern trough swings out

 

[Meatyorologist]

00z EPS Day 10 a lot of potential once that eastern trough swings out

 

I love the blocking placement + signal.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z is way different...... Day 4-6

[Gradient Keeper]

A little chillier at the surface and 850mb for next weekend.

 

Highs just a touch over freezing next Saturday. Brr.

Day 4-6

The arctic trough digs out a bit more, then it holds over us does not eject off to the east it splits with energy going offshore. Weird. Check out the 500mb progression!

 

[Tyler Mode]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Medford OR311 AM PST Mon Nov 25 2019...Potentially historic wind storm expected Tuesday afternoon andevening....A highly unusual, rapidly deepening Pacific storm system isexpected to make landfall on the southern Oregon coast Tuesdayevening. This surface low pressure, potentially one of thedeepest recorded in recent memory, will produce very strong windsacross the region, particularly at the coast, over the arearidgelines, and in the valleys of Josephine, Jackson, andSiskiyou counties. Everyone in the affected area should beprepared for potentially damaging winds.

[Timmy]

we've lost the nam!!!

[Guest CulverJosh]

Here we go!!

 

 

 

ORZ506-511-252300-
/O.CON.KPDT.WS.A.0008.191127T0000Z-191128T0600Z/
Ochoco-John Day Highlands-Central Oregon-
Including the cities of Brothers, Paulina, Prairie City, Seneca,
Bend, Madras, Prineville, and Redmond
556 AM PST Mon Nov 25 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to
10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph causing
blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Ochoco-John Day Highlands and Central Oregon.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z NAM 3km 971mb landfall near Brookings. Also OTH-GEG of -26mb. What a beast!

 

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

12z NAM 3km 971mb landfall near Brookings. Also OTH-GEG of -26mb. What a beast!

 

 

 

Hey Rob.  Do you have a precip map to go with that?

[umadbro]

Gotta wonder if theres going to be some wrap around or some kind of deformation for the northern parts of the valley.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Guest CulverJosh]

11 25 19 12z NAM Radar.gif

What an awesome track!!  That thing just stalls and pumps moisture into central OR.  Hope it goes just like that.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Teleconnections Indices forecast. Looking promising for models to come around to another cold pattern.

 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty cool storm down there... it will be interesting to watch.

[TT-SEA]

Not sure why some are saying the EPS is board.   I don't see anything promising on the 00Z run in terms of mountain snow and/or starting the ski season... which is becoming concerning now.

 

00Z EPS was in good agreement with the operational run at day 10:

 

 

 

 

Which became this by day 15:

 

 

Here is the 10-15 day mean on the 850mb temps:

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Medford OR
311 AM PST Mon Nov 25 2019

...Potentially historic wind storm expected Tuesday afternoon and
evening...

.A highly unusual, rapidly deepening Pacific storm system is
expected to make landfall on the southern Oregon coast Tuesday
evening. This surface low pressure, potentially one of the
deepest recorded in recent memory, will produce very strong winds
across the region, particularly at the coast, over the area
ridgelines, and in the valleys of Josephine, Jackson, and
Siskiyou counties. Everyone in the affected area should be
prepared for potentially damaging winds.

Going to be fun tracking this storm!

[TT-SEA]

Nice to see this... too bad it couldn't have been another 3 feet going into this cold spell.

 

 

 

38 with rain pounding on the roof here now.   Precip should wind down during the day... and the flow turns offshore tonight.   

[Blizzard777]

La Pine this morning!

Told my brother we need to go check the bird feeders over there!