November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[bainbridgekid]

But those wildfires have nothing to do with winter precip.

 

I’ll never understand you guys, lol. If I’m not getting snow, I’d rather the mountains suffer with me than score big at my expense. Screw the mountains.

You must not be a skier.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah Saturday looks like it could be a good transition event. Not a ton of upper level warming, though maybe a warming mid-layer. 

 

I see Eugene has a WWA now. I think they could actually score a couple inches. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS has suddenly gone very active in the mid-long range. 

[GHweatherChris]

Cold/dry vs warm/swampy..which would you choose?

Super Hot summers, super snowy winters!

[Jbolin]

I don't see any sign of the bombing low on satellite yet.

Don't worry, you will. 

 

It'll be a bit of a "sneaker", that low will literally give (Rapid Cyclogensis) a run for it's money

[Phil]

You must not be a skier.

I’m an avid skier, actually. Just don’t have time to hit the backcountry often these days (and ours pales in comparison to the West anyway). Used to travel out to Aspen and Park City every March with the family but there’s no time now.

 

But I know what you mean. Some fellow Mid-Atlantic wx-geeks also root for cold NW flow all winter because it dumps feet of upslope snow in the Appalachians and they hit the slopes every weekend.

 

I still hate cold NW flow with a passion. Worst snow pattern possible for us lowlifes on the lee side. Probably why the “but the mountains!” stuff bugs me..all they really do is steal snow that was destined for me.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

But those wildfires have little to do with winter precip.

 

I’ll never understand you guys, lol. If I’m not getting snow, I’d rather the mountains suffer with me than score big at my expense. Screw the mountains.

Yes, once Summer hits we are pretty dry no matter what, but a low snowpack means fire season can start a lot sooner.  There was a bad fire in June in Wenatchee that destroyed dozens of homes, and that was a really early fire for our area.  And that was after a season with a very low snow pack.  

[TT-SEA]

Rainbow in Seattle on this late November afternoon...

 

[MossMan]

The GFS has suddenly gone very active in the mid-long range.

Good to see!

[Omegaraptor]

Yes, once Summer hits we are pretty dry no matter what, but a low snowpack means fire season can start a lot sooner.  There was a bad fire in June in Wenatchee that destroyed dozens of homes, and that was a really early fire for our area.  And that was after a season with a very low snow pack.

 

Not sure how low the snowpack was in the Southern OR and far north CA region in summer 2018... but I was at Crater Lake on July 5th right after the Klamathon fire started in Hornbrook (right near the state line). When I got there Mt Shasta was clearly visible in the distance but near the end of the day I think there was a slight haze. Afterwards the fires just did not let up in that region for months.

[Blizzard777]

I don't see any sign of the bombing low on satellite yet.

It ran a practice round yesterday so we should be good

[Prairiedog]

 Pretty sure we had this discussion when I was active on here in February, but where did you play? 

 

 Pretty sure we had this discussion when I was active on here in February, but where did you play? 

Yes, I remember now.  I played for Orioles organization back in the early 70's.  All American at Pacific U, College HoF.  Days loooong since gone.  Only faint memories now and lots of rotator cuff pain to remind me I pitched once upon a time.  LOL  Now I salmon and steelhead fish a lot and struggle watching the Mariners.  Oh, and a resident weather junkie.  Not in the league as most on this forum but being a retired science teacher, I love the journey of learning.  I'm more of a winter time participant.  I'm on the rivers fishing the most of the year but hang out here most this time of the year.    You played in Washington somewhere if I remember correctly? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes, I remember now.  I played for Orioles organization back in the early 70's.  All American at Pacific U, College HoF.  Days loooong since gone.  Only faint memories now and lots of rotator cuff pain to remind me I pitched once upon a time.  LOL  Now I salmon and steelhead fish a lot and struggle watching the Mariners.  Oh, and a resident weather junkie.  Not in the league as most on this forum but being a retired science teacher, I love the journey of learning.  I'm more of a winter time participant.  I'm on the rivers fishing the most of the year but hang out here most this time of the year.    You played in Washington somewhere if I remember correctly? 

 

Seems that weather and baseball are somewhat of a co-occurring interest. There are 4-5 people on here that I know of played at least college ball. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In case anyone missed this nugget from the 18z. 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The SSW in early December is looking less and less likely. That's not necessarily a bad thing for those who like the current patterns.

Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice

And the minor Stratospheric Warming Event, driven by a displacement of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex off it's axis, is now taking place.

 

 

 

 

Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice

One CFSv2 member highlights a 'Major' Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event during the month of December, where the bulk of the distribution is 'Minor'.

[TT-SEA]

C-zone falling apart... and about done.   Looks like there will be no snow at my house tonight... next chance of precip out here is maybe Sunday but east wind will be in charge by then which usually eats up precip as it moves into King County.  

[TacomaWaWx]

C-zone falling apart... and about done. Looks like there will be no snow at my house tonight... next chance of precip out here is maybe Sunday but east wind will be in charge by then which usually eats up precip as it moves into King County.

idk man it’s hailing heavily in Tacoma right now. Might not be over just yet.

[Blizzard777]

In case anyone missed this nugget from the 18z. 

 

Supposed to come in three’s (at least we have that on our side)

#2 windstorm

[Blizzard777]

idk man it’s hailing heavily in Tacoma right now. Might not be over just yet.

Saw that little band over you...definitely feels like winter out there

42*

[TT-SEA]

idk man it’s hailing heavily in Tacoma right now. Might not be over just yet.

Its shifting south and breaking up.

[jakeinthevalley]

Seems that weather and baseball are somewhat of a co-occurring interest. There are 4-5 people on here that I know of played at least college ball.

Yep. Western Oregon 1986 through 1990.

 

Weather has a pretty profound effect on the game

[MossMan]

Wooweee.

I have to admit I am very jealous right now of the southern folks.

[Blizzard777]

Its shifting south and breaking up.

We will take what we can get!!!

i hope it’s breaking up in a crazy kind of way 

[Blizzard777]

My ice maker quit working so I really need some hail

evening cocktail time  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wooweee.

Bombogenesis!

[Perturbed Member]

I have to admit I am very jealous right now of the southern folks.

 

Yeah, shame that this thing is going way south. At least the weekend looks interesting for another chance for overrunning. Hopefully that can deliver to areas Salem north.  

[HighlandExperience]

I have to admit I am very jealous right now of the southern folks.

Don’t be. Your location will get ten times the snow they will ever see. You live in some weird snow portal.

[Blizzard777]

Lightning strike just east of Bremerton 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Observing total precip and temperature analysis.  Here is what I see.

 

PDX: Mixed especially above 500'.  Maybe a trace to 1/2" West Hills, Chehalem Mt., Mt. Scott.

 

Salem: Mixed showers turning to snow by 10 PM Tuesday.  Total snow 1/2" to 1"....more in West Salem if banding sets up.

 

Eugene:  Models are underdoing the potential there.  I could see downtown Eugene getting 2-4"....most likely is 1-2".   More in the hills East of town.

 

Klamath Falls:  4-6"....could be some shadowing.

 

Bend: 10-12", more if that low stalls, which is a high possibility.

 

Redmond: 6-10"...see above.

 

And for me in Culver?  Close to Redmond but a little less.  Probably 5" or so when all is done.

[Cloud]

Trying to see where my previous post went, so it may be a double if it shows up.

 

Off and on CZ for most of the day today, so far nearing 0.25” and still going, maybe for another hour or 2.

[Phil]

Seems that weather and baseball are somewhat of a co-occurring interest. There are 4-5 people on here that I know of played at least college ball.

Interesting how these things overlap. I still play in our spring league every year. And I’m not a sports junkie by any means, but there is something innately beautiful about the game of baseball. The psychological tug-of-war between the pitcher and batter and perceived “momentum”, the aerodynamics, the guesswork. All of it. It’s addicting.

 

Luckily enough there are outdoor cages nearby (Rocky Gorge on old Columbia Rd) open year round where we can keep our swings fluid. Nothing quite like taking BP in the snow.

[Phil]

In case anyone missed this nugget from the 18z.

 

Gotta love the D16 GFS.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX sounding for this weekend

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like the GFS has a warmish layer between 900-850mb. Column just barely cold enough to support all snow, at least for a while. 

 

Hopefully models will trend a bit cooler for the weekend. 

[High Desert Mat?]

Observing total precip and temperature analysis. Here is what I see.

 

PDX: Mixed especially above 500'. Maybe a trace to 1/2" West Hills, Chehalem Mt., Mt. Scott.

 

Salem: Mixed showers turning to snow by 10 PM Tuesday. Total snow 1/2" to 1"....more in West Salem if banding sets up.

 

Eugene: Models are underdoing the potential there. I could see downtown Eugene getting 2-4"....most likely is 1-2". More in the hills East of town.

 

Klamath Falls: 4-6"....could be some shadowing.

 

Bend: 10-12", more if that low stalls, which is a high possibility.

 

Redmond: 6-10"...see above.

 

And for me in Culver? Close to Redmond but a little less. Probably 5" or so when all is done.

I can see those happening. Big story is how long it should be around. Looks like the melting won’t really start until mid next week sometime. Oh, and those winds!!! Lol

[The Swamp]

holy hail stones

[Guest CulverJosh]

I can see those happening. Big story is how long it should be around. Looks like the melting won’t really start until mid next week sometime. Oh, and those winds!!! Lol

If it ends up like your avatar then I will be happy.  Btw, my phone is broke Mat.  It won't go above 2% charge then dies.  New phone tomorrow.

[The Swamp]

might have to make a hail monster

[Blizzard777]

holy hail stones

You got pounded!

some hail here but nothing dramatic 

[ShawniganLake]

But those wildfires have little to do with winter precip.

 

I’ll never understand you guys, lol. If I’m not getting snow, I’d rather the mountains suffer with me than score big at my expense. Screw the mountains.

Haha. Snow in the mountains is kind of important

[SouthHillFrosty]

Puyalllup atm