November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[FroYoBro]

Sorry to quote an old message. Who tweeted that image? That's my neighborhood lol

 

 

ur mum

[TacomaWaWx]

39 and light rain. Weak band has been sitting here for the last 30 minutes or so.

[FrozenBites]

Wintry mix in Bonney lake. Precipitation has been pretty consistent. 36 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting mid-long range. Looks like it may finally get active. 

[Deweydog]

Alaska might actually get kinda coldish...

[Bryant]

ur mum

Are we in middle school?

[TacomaWaWx]

38 now, still raining, just needs to cool down a few degrees...shame that the precip will probably end by the time that happens :/.

[seattleweatherguy]

Thunder I’m bothell one flash of lightening

[BLI snowman]

Warmer version of January 2016???

 

 

Maybe a bit warmer at the surface, upper level support looks better with this though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

38 now, still raining, just needs to cool down a few degrees...shame that the precip will probably end by the time that happens :/.

Will have the same problem here tomorrow. Heaviest precip arrives during peak heating.

[Perturbed Member]

GEM shows a similar idea for the weekend with that low coming out of the SW but we're quite a bit warmer. More inclined to believe the GFS for now. The cold air is a given now and the next low comes out of the SW and we maintain offshore flow. Hard to believe the surface would warm so quickly given that. 

 

[Omegaraptor]

I guessed 12/2 for first snowflakes at PDX at the OMSI weather meeting contest. If the GFS verifies I might win some free OMSI tickets. C'MON! Think Cold and SNOW on 12/2!!!!

[TacomaWaWx]

Will have the same problem here tomorrow. Heaviest precip arrives during peak heating.

unfortunate. you will probably still see some snow if I were betting. Maybe this CZ will keep going on and we see some flakes here tonight...or maybe some flurries tomorrow.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks like the GFS is showing a pineapple express in the clown range.

[kokaneekidz]

From the commute back from Bellevue tonight just passing the Muk spdwy 99 interchange. It was wild went from 42 and nothing to crazy hail sleet all of a suddon. Then when I got to home just a trace of slush. Gotta love Seattle bi-polar weather .

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GEM shows a similar idea for the weekend with that low coming out of the SW but we're quite a bit warmer. More inclined to believe the GFS for now. The cold air is a given now and the next low comes out of the SW and we maintain offshore flow. Hard to believe the surface would warm so quickly given that.

 

The 00z UKMET also shows moisture coming from the SW returning this weekend. Good to see at least some agreement with a possible overrunning event.

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Hail hard in kenmore

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SouthHillFrosty]

A slushy snow/rain mix in Puyallup on the hill again

[TacomaWaWx]

Little CZ still going 38 and up to 0.09” of rain. Hoping to see a switchover before the precip runs out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Skies have cleared and down to 33 here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incredible how active the GFS and its ensembles have gotten. Looks like we could be making up some rainfall deficits in December!

[jcmcgaffey]

View of the convergence across the puget sound earlier today.

[jcmcgaffey]

Cherry blossoms already know how this winter is going to turn out...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

That Pscz is a national treasure.  I miss it but I cannot complain about what is coming my way.

 

It was the best thing about living in Shoreline. Bainbridge sometimes benefited from it, but not nearly so much.

 

I miss it, but I got to live in Fraser Outflow Central as a consolation prize for giving it up.

[Deweydog]

Euro has stealthily warmed things up over the weekend...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro has stealthily warmed things up over the weekend...

 

Musta killed the vibe in herrrr. No one is posting tonight it seems. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is a good read.

 

.UPDATE...The overall forecast and main themes of message still
appear on-track this evening as a rapidly deepening cyclone is
forecast by almost all available guidance to approach the southwest
Oregon Coast Tuesday afternoon. GOES-W band 10 water vapor imagery
continues to depict an extremely impressive looking wave near
50N/145W as of mid evening. It`s hard to tell what the subsidence
part of the system looks like as it is being masked by a higher
level moist plume coming off of the system NW of Hawaii, but earlier
this afternoon, the drying in the band 10 imagery was most
impressive as the wave crested the top of the mean ridge axis. There
isn`t a whole lot of reason to doubt much of the consensus guidance
this evening as this system has all of the hallmarks in satellite
imagery of a system that is about to undergo very rapid
intensification.

12-hour 500 mb height falls are now depicted to be between 320-350
meters (which is almost unheard of), which will result in intense
large-scale forcing for ascent across roughly the southern half of
the Portland CWA Tuesday and Tuesday night, along with very strong
winds as the entire troposphere undergoes rapid mass acceleration in
response. The most intense winds (sustained 65+ kt with some gusts
approaching 90 kt) will likely be confined to the south and/or west
of our CWA and marine zones, but nonetheless, sustained winds and
gusts should approach 50 mph at many exposed areas and higher
elevations. We have not made any changes to the various warnings
and advisories this evening, but we could see the eventual need to
upgrade to a storm warning for parts of the southern waters, and we
are suspicious that the northern Oregon Cascades may eventually
require an upgrade to a winter storm warning due to a combination of
winds and snow Tuesday night as an axis of frontogenesis becomes
established on the north side of the low as it tracks across
southern Oregon. 

[MikeInEverett]

First confirmed windshield splat test of the winter just now.

[Deweydog]

I had the word “frontogenesis” tattooed across my lower back in February 2014.

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty wimpy looking event over the weekend now. Warm and not much precip.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Clear and frosty 31F here.

[MikeInEverett]

If it were just a few degrees colder this would be fun

[Deweydog]

Musta killed the vibe in herrrr. No one is posting tonight it seems.

There’s always a bit of a lull after late fall/early winter Rob sweeps through town.

[MossMan]

Currently 34 degrees.

[TacomaWaWx]

Little CZ gave out, not too often we get hit twice in one day by the convergence zone in my area. 38 and clear now 0.13” of rain. Wish it was just a little colder could have seen some flakes.

[Dave]

This has got to be a restless time to be an NWS forecaster in OR at the moment. My guess is I will see a decent amount of flakes, but only see a dusting in the grass and rooftops. Hope I'm wrong.

[Front Ranger]

Northern c-zone is back... with onshore flow weakening it will be more focused towards the Sound and will fade as the precip moves towards the Cascades.

 

Still going strong. Looks like some pretty good echoes just a little N of you.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This has got to be a restless time to be an NWS forecaster in OR at the moment. My guess is I will see a decent amount of flakes, but only see a dusting in the grass and rooftops. Hope I'm wrong.

 

Yeah, I'm guessing a mix at some point tomorrow evening.  Trouble is the best precip comes in during peak heating.

 

Currently 37F

 

Must not have been very good runs tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Still going strong. Looks like some pretty good echoes just a little N of you.

Just a few sprinkles here this evening.