November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hmm...

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Portland OR

325 AM PST Mon Nov 25 2019

 

Now, for the $64K question...Will it snow in the lowlands. Well, snow level gradually lowers on Tue, down to 1000 to 1500 feet by late afternoon. As the low pushes onshore, will see decent pull on the colder air east of the Cascades. Will see breezy east winds developing over the higher terrain, and through the Columbia Gorge into western lowlands. This colder air will get pulled westward, enough to lower snow levels down to 500 feet or lower later Tuesday evening. Model soundings all show lowlands web bulbing out at that time. All indicated no warm layer aloft, which may melt any snow falling. So, with all that, combined with the upslope component of the flow from the north towards the deep low to the south, should be enough to support a rain/snow mix, and more likely just snow. Have trended forecasts as such, with accumulations less than an inch for most of Willamette Valley, but 1 to maybe 2 inches possible to south of Albany through Eugene/Springfield area. Same situation in the Columbia Gorge, though better confidence in seeing an inch or two east of Bonneville. But, will not issue any advisories for the lowest elevations yet, as would like to see a few more model runs.

[ShawniganLake]

Not sure why some are saying the EPS is board. I don't see anything promising on the 00Z run in terms of mountain snow and/or starting the ski season... which is becoming concerning now.

 

00Z EPS was in good agreement with the operational run at day 10:

 

 

 

 

Which became this by day 15:

 

 

Here is the 10-15 day mean on the 850mb temps:

Yea. Probably going to need a reset at this point. Cutoff low off California and a deep trough in the east. Probably Not going to happen for us. Maybe late December or January

[Blizzard777]

.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 40 here this morning, currently 41.

[ShawniganLake]

Clear and calm and 32 this morning. Looks like it was pretty mild when I was out of town the past couple days. 52/35 and 52/37.

[TacomaWaWx]

Definitely an interesting storm to watch. Makes me wonder if there will be more strong storms throughout the year pushed into this area with the jet stream acting the way it is. Very interesting track.

[Esquimalt]

Yea. Probably going to need a reset at this point. Cutoff low off California and a deep trough in the east. Probably Not going to happen for us. Maybe late December or January

Looks like there’s a lot of noise in the long range though. I would assume there’s some members that are decent for us.

[Jesse]

Looks like there’s a lot of noise in the long range though. I would assume there’s some members that are decent for us.

NOPE. The next 16 days have pretty much already happened. Let’s hope the 16 after that are a little better.

[TacomaWaWx]

16 day winter cancel in effect

[FroYoBro]

The 12z GFS really buries the Ashland area with snow. Could be an insane event with wind and snow down there. 

[Jesse]

Cold rain and 36 degrees this morning down on the North Umpqua. Really wouldn’t be too surprised to see things change over to wet snow at some point tonight. We are close to 1,000’ asl here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Cold rain and 36 degrees this morning down on the North Umpqua. Really wouldn’t be too surprised to see things change over to wet snow at some point tonight. We are close to 1,000’ asl here.

you should be in an interesting spot to watch all this unfold.

[FroYoBro]

Cold rain and 36 degrees this morning down on the North Umpqua. Really wouldn’t be too surprised to see things change over to wet snow at some point tonight. We are close to 1,000’ asl here.

 

 

I'm pretty jealous. I would love to take a trip down to Ashland this week if it wasn't for work! 

[BhamMe]

Had a brief two minutes of hail in Bellingham at 1:30 this morning. Enough tapping on the window glass to wake me up. 

[Jesse]

you should be in an interesting spot to watch all this unfold.

It’s funny because we decided to come down here Thanksgiving week way before any of this stuff was on the horizon.

 

Although we will be driving home on Tuesday. Have obligations in town Tuesday night and Wednesday. It’s going to be hard to be driving in the opposite direction just as things are getting really crazy around that time.

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s funny because we decided to come down here Thanksgiving week way before any of this stuff was on the horizon.

Although we will be driving home on Tuesday. Have obligations in town Tuesday night and Wednesday. It’s going to be hard to be driving in the opposite direction just as things are getting really crazy around that time.

yeah considering the unusual circumstances with this system that sucks. Hopefully you get to see some interesting stuff beforehand, maybe it’ll snow today or tomorrow a bit. I wish I could head down to OR to watch this beast move in myself.

[FroYoBro]

It will be fun to see the daytime temperature go down a little bit each day this work week.

[TacomaWaWx]

Another brief round of snow for southern OR?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the 06z ensembles were terrible. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another brief round of snow for southern OR?

 

Not possible. Tim says the EPS says that is going way south. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a bizarre setup over the weekend.

[FroYoBro]

What a bizarre setup over the weekend.

 

Yeah, obviously a lot ways it could go with just small changes. Just have to wait a couple of days to figure it out. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Very bizarre. Low just kind of sits off the OR coast rotating.

[TT-SEA]

Not possible. Tim says the EPS says that is going way south. 

 

I did not say anything about precip on the EPS in 6 days.    

 

I said the pattern does not look very favorable on the EPS through day 15.    Which is true.

 

You know this of course.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If the NWS forecast verifies SLE will end November with a -1.6F departure. 

[Esquimalt]

The tendency has been to weaken the block more and more allowing that trough to swing in further and stronger. This could develop into an overrunning event

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very bizarre. Low just kind of sits off the OR coast rotating.

 

Score?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

With the morning rain SLE is up to 0.60" on the month. They could potentially break the 1" mark, but it will be close. Picked up 0.37" at the house last night. Was 37 with fog when I left for work. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well through Tuesday it never really warms up, though that low going inland probably turns the flow onshore. Looks like a Clark County special at hour 180.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like it could get pretty breezy late this week in the cascade gaps before the southerly winds kick in. Overall it’s an interesting run, need to see a few more runs to try and pin down details.

[TT-SEA]

Well through Tuesday it never really warms up, though that low going inland probably turns the flow onshore. Looks like a Clark County special at hour 180.

 

Not possible... Andrew said the 06Z ensembles were terrible.   

[FroYoBro]

Not possible... Andrew said the 06Z ensembles were terrible.   

 

Reverse model burn!

[BLI snowman]

Very bizarre. Low just kind of sits off the OR coast rotating.

 

 

Thundersnow?

[El_Nina]

I had a dream about thundersnow happening here last night.

[TacomaWaWx]

Would be pretty crazy to be in southern OR tomorrow night.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like there’s a lot of noise in the long range though. I would assume there’s some members that are decent for us.

Yes. In a 2 week+ period during winter there is generally going to be a couple ensemble members that would look decent.

[TacomaWaWx]

Fraser River valley will probably be blowing pretty hard tomorrow night too. Models seem to also indicate another period of strong offshore flow this weekend as well. Might get breezy for the usual spots out of the east.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like the Tahoe ski resorts will probably open before us. 3' snow forecast there while it's dry up here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Thundersnow?

That would be pretty bada**.

[Blizzard777]

I had a dream about thundersnow happening here last night.

 

 McRibs effect !!!