November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Lightning at Whidbey Island right now.  Looks like a strong cell forming.

[GHweatherChris]

00 gfs was apparently a bunmer, oh well.

[Perturbed Member]

00z Euro is south with the low so far

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC a bit south

[Deweydog]

South.

[jcmcgaffey]

Yep some lightning and thunder going on here in north seattle.

[kokaneekidz]

Heavy hail in Mukilteo now. Seems a bit early eh?

[TT-SEA]

South.

 

[Perturbed Member]

http://poster.keepcalmandposters.com/30891.png

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Gonna be wild on the Southern Oregon Coast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Strong winds, heavy rain and possibly wet snow depending on the track.

 

[Requiem]

Gradient is still pretty strong, so that's all that matters to me rn. The low is still very potent as well.

[Perturbed Member]

Oregon Cascades gonna get some much needed snow and you guys east of the mountains gonna score big too

 

[Gradient Keeper]

10:22 PM Radar Update

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oregon Cascades gonna get some much needed snow and you guys east of the mountains gonna score big too

 

 

[MossMan]

Currently 41 and cloudy.

[Omegaraptor]

Raining here.

[seattleweatherguy]

Neat!

Drive through some hail in Kirkland just now

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. There is just very little model consistency tonight after Day 5. I'm guessing the cut-off lows are throwing a major wrench in things.

[Jesse]

Nice, have fun!

Thank you.

 

We ran down to Roseburg earlier and there was thick fog down in the valley. Clear and 35 here, though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift anybody?

[Jesse]

Not a lot of buzz about tonight’s Euro.

[kokaneekidz]

Well it seems to be over now. Just a false flag freakout event. Hopefully tomorrow night brings a fierce CZ that slides all the way down the sound and brings happiness to all.

[Requiem]

Night shift anybody?

 

I would just for this upcoming wicked storm. But I have school, so nah.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF 976 Cape Blanco

 

North Bend 978/979mb, Spokane 1011mb OTH-GEG -32 to -33mb! Good lord. North Bend 978/979mb, Yakima 1005mb OTH-YKM -26 to -27mb. 4km Sounding PDX 7 PM Tuesday. WOW! Insane winds coming for PDX metro, Foothills.

 

 

[Requiem]

00z WRF 976 Cape Blanco

 

North Bend 978/979mb, Spokane 1011mb OTH-GEG -32 to -33mb! Good lord. North Bend 978/979mb, Yakima 1005mb OTH-YKM -26 to -27mb. 4km Sounding PDX 7 PM Tuesday. WOW! Insane winds coming for PDX metro, Foothills.

 

 

 

GFS MOS and NAM MOS runs are showing obscene winds for PDX. If I recall the former was something like 48 mph sustained winds. Not gonna happen most probably, but I think it's gonna get gusty with some 35-45 gusts here and there (maybe higher).

[HighlandExperience]

[Jesse]

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS MOS and NAM MOS runs are showing obscene winds for PDX. If I recall the former was something like 48 mph sustained winds. Not gonna happen most probably, but I think it's gonna get gusty with some 35-45 gusts here and there (maybe higher).

Oh are they? how strong? Out here east of I-205 I'm expecting 35-40 gusts 50-60mph. Possibly higher if the mid-upper level winds were to increase on the next few runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9-10 EURO trying to go places

 

[Requiem]

Oh are they? how strong? Out here east of I-205 I'm expecting 35-40 gusts 50-60mph. Possibly higher if the mid-upper level winds were to increase on the next few runs.

 

Using a meteogram, but the GFS MOS was 48 mph sustained, and the NAM MOS was 30 mph sustained.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Downtown Seattle is the only place in the NW that matters.

Amen!

[HighlandExperience]

[Gradient Keeper]

Night shift anybody?

Possibly. I'm not all that tired somehow. Heading for a shower because I smell like a pig on a pig. I will say a slight chance I'm awake by 6z....

[Gradient Keeper]

Using a meteogram, but the GFS MOS was 48 mph sustained, and the NAM MOS was 30 mph sustained.

30-45mph sustained honestly doesn't seem too far fetched. I've never seen a OTH/YKM-GEG gradient this strong.

[Gradient Keeper]

Those times were changing as you were writing that.

It took me 8 seconds to write/type that. I suppose they could have.

[Requiem]

30-45mph sustained honestly doesn't seem too far fetched. I've never seen a OTH/YKM-GEG gradient this strong.

 

Wow, Even stronger than what models showed for the November 2014 event? I'm just hesitant because not a single met has mentioned the possibility (except Mark-- he said "strong" east winds).

[Jesse]

[Omegaraptor]

Downtown Seattle is the only place in the NW that matters.

You mean North Bend, right?

[snow_wizard]

Not a lot of buzz about tonight’s Euro.

 

I kind of like it as we get into week two.  It does away with that stupid cutoff low fairly quickly.

 

Another interesting thing I noticed tonight on the GFS ensemble is at least a third of the members keep the sub -5 850s going two to three days longer than the operational models are currently indicating.  Could be something to watch.