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November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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People are on your case because this has been the same shtick from you for over a decade. Whether it’s arguing with someone about snow in Seattle because a webcam in Tukwilla shows rain, arguing about

Good god dude. You do NOTHING but cheerlead for dry, warm and sunny weather. Every season. All the time. 50,000 posts worth. More than anyone else here cheerleads for any other type of weather.   Hypo

fun times

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What if it’s warm above but cool at the surface?

Probably still good. Upper levels matter more in that case.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The weather doldrums have their boring grip firmly on us. We will be lulled into a meteorological coma, and then BAM! The westerlies will arrive with a stormy pattern, AR events, or wind storms, OR we go back into blocking with MAJOR big league arctic air.

 

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 5 minutes

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Hopefully not such an 02-03 style bore fest. The board being active is awesome and I worry a dud will keep the post rate at summer-like stats

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 28 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Our you kidding me! That won’t verify, it’s 384 hours out!

It will probably end up snowy and miserable cold

Shawnigan made me look at 384 hours. He seemed excited about it. :)

 

But that map is actually for one week from today. Much closer range.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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590+ dam. Temps should be warming thru the 90s. After this dry stretch...Red flag warnings!

 

 

Could not manage any real ridging all summer... and now its easy in November!

 

Onto to 2020.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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52\35 here in tacoma today. Weather looks incredibly boring next week. We have already gone 10 days without rain here we may go another 10 here in November. That would be longer than any dry streak we had this entire summer.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.39”

Cold season rainfall-25.42”

Snowfall-Tr.

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It’s over...

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 28 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Looks like October finished drier than normal for the majority of the Northwest. Bad luck for Tim again, though.

 

bBEagvZ.png

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Looks like October finished drier than normal for the majority of the Northwest. Bad luck for Tim again, though.

 

bBEagvZ.png

Not bad though... most of it came in about 5 days.

 

Lots of sun this month. More sunny days in October than in July here this year... which is not climo.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not bad though... most of it came in about 5 days.

 

Lots of sun this month. More sunny days in October than in July here this year... which is not climo.

Would be crazy if you pulled off more sunny days in November than July, lol. That might not be out of the question if this MJO wave is of the higher frequency variety. Maybe?

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So I think Phil is on board with a 2002-03 repeat as the key ingredients of a warm west and weenie east are set. To save everyone some grief, I am going to lock the forum until March or so. I am sure Phil will share some great blizzard pictures. It's been fun guys, but put a fork in it and lets start thinking about 2020-21. I am thinking its probably going to be a 99-00 kind of year.

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So I think Phil is on board with a 2002-03 repeat as the key ingredients of a warm west and weenie east are set. To save everyone some grief, I am going to lock the forum until March or so. I am sure Phil will share some great blizzard pictures. It's been fun guys, but put a fork in it and lets start thinking about 2020-21. I am thinking its probably going to be a 99-00 kind of year.

20-21 should be strongly positive ENSO. Think 86-87. 97-98, 2009-2010
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So I think Phil is on board with a 2002-03 repeat as the key ingredients of a warm west and weenie east are set. To save everyone some grief, I am going to lock the forum until March or so. I am sure Phil will share some great blizzard pictures. It's been fun guys, but put a fork in it and lets start thinking about 2020-21. I am thinking its probably going to be a 99-00 kind of year.

The more you guys talk about 2002/03, the more you’re gonna pull it in from the ethers.

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On the other hand, my first childhood memory of big snow came from the blizzard in Jan 2000, so I’d love a repeat of that year. It’s foggy but I remember it.

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So I think Phil is on board with a 2002-03 repeat as the key ingredients of a warm west and weenie east are set. To save everyone some grief, I am going to lock the forum until March or so. I am sure Phil will share some great blizzard pictures. It's been fun guys, but put a fork in it and lets start thinking about 2020-21. I am thinking its probably going to be a 99-00 kind of year.

At least keep the Banter thread open so we can complain about the epic collapse of the Hawks season and how we are going to end up 6-10.

 

Oh and I think my bulbs are popping out of the ground and trees are budding!

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Looks like October finished drier than normal for the majority of the Northwest. Bad luck for Tim again, though.

 

bBEagvZ.png

Something looks off with that map as SEA was above normal but is in the drier than normal area. There are a bunch of other stations in the yellow that were above normal rainfall for October so not sure what is going on with that map.
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Something looks off with that map as SEA was above normal but is in the drier than normal area. There are a bunch of other stations in the yellow that were above normal rainfall for October so not sure what is going on with that map.

I think it's a baseline thing.

Low. Solar.

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2014-15

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 28 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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No need for a night shift tonight.

 

58/27 so not a bad day temp wise again.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 28 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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At least keep the Banter thread open so we can complain about the epic collapse of the Hawks season and how we are going to end up 6-10.

 

Oh and I think my bulbs are popping out of the ground and trees are budding!

 

Have you considered moving to North Bend? I hear the blossoms are great in January.

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Euro looking GFSish. Let’s face it models are all over the place right now.

Yeah, they really are. I also notice the jet east of 170-160 W is quite weak and disorganized.... Some beefier segments of the WPAC jet from the dateline to Japan, but nothing consolidated persisting for very long. I think there's still a slight ~15% chance the next 2-3 days reveals the block holding stronger than is currently modeled.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 11 minutes

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