Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really disappointing model runs. Seems like the GFS is pretty consistent with summer starting for real here in about a week or so. 2018 redux still on the table. Pretty pathetic rain amounts with these “storms.”

What about California?

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really disappointing model runs. Seems like the GFS is pretty consistent with summer starting for real here in about a week or so. 2018 redux still on the table. Pretty pathetic rain amounts with these “storms.”

Pretty obvious another warm spell is coming based on the MJO.     EPS has also been consistent for several days with ridging building in next week so it's not surprising to see the GFS latching onto the idea now.  I am sure there will be more troughy periods too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty obvious another warm spell is coming based on the MJO.     EPS has also been consistent for several days with ridging building in next week so it's not surprising to see the GFS latching onto the idea now.  I am sure there will be more troughy periods too.

I don’t think so. This is it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty sobering signs. A worthless thunderstorm “outbreak” and a top tier dry month on tap. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Been hearing a lot of thunder break time is in 3 minutes

[Snowdome]

Had some very nice thunderstorms last night and this morning with short lived but heavy rainfall. Haven’t had something like that since we moved from Florida. 

[BLI snowman]

Thundering again.

[FroYoBro]

Decent band of rain moving through the northern valley right now. Also heard a couple of muffled rumbles of thunder about an hour ago or so. 

[T-Town]

I’m right on the northern fringe of the rain based on radar. No thunder but getting a decent soaking at least. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy rain finally!

[Omegaraptor]

Corvallis at 0 rain in the last 24 hours. Hopefully that changes today.

[Slushy Inch]

June 2021 but in May! Won’t actually be that hot but a very anomalous ridge nonetheless. Great… 

[Phishy Wx]

irrigation getting turned on tomorrow.  not a minute too soon.  yard is bone dry already even with the T-storms on Monday and Tuesday nights.  Do not like these trends heading into summer and what looks to be a Strong El Nino evolving

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

irrigation getting turned on tomorrow.  not a minute too soon.  yard is bone dry already even with the T-storms on Monday and Tuesday nights.  Do not like these trends heading into summer and what looks to be a Strong El Nino evolving

I think this Summer will be hot and dry. Hopefully we don’t get smoke.

[ShawniganLake]

Flood season has arrived in the interior.  A delayed melt season is in overdrive now. 
 

https://www.thestar.com/amp/news/canada/2023/05/04/bc-flooding-mudslides-prompt-evacuation-orders-highway-closures-in-the-interior.html

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty sobering signs. A worthless thunderstorm “outbreak” and a top tier dry month on tap. 

The precipitation departure up here over the last 10 months is getting pretty bad. BLI is still only at 6.65" on the year, which puts it the driest start to a year on record (by more than an inch).

The mountains and valleys are at 50-70% of normal over the last 10 months. That means they're 20-40"+ short on rain since last July. I've been exploring the lower elevations in the North Cascades the last few weeks (below snow line) around 1,500'-3,500' and after these warm days they are bone dry, almost dry enough to burn already. I imagine that's because they really didn't get to absorb any rain this past fall since they went into the freezer so quickly in November and have been mostly buried under snow since. This is the sixth driest July-May period in the last 110 years up here in the Skagit Basin (at Diablo Dam the driest was '43-44).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

June 2021 but in May! Won’t actually be that hot but a very anomalous ridge nonetheless. Great… 

I really shouldn't be surprised anymore...

[Omegaraptor]

 

Weren’t the lowlands flirting with snow like, 3 weeks ago?

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Weren’t the lowlands flirting with snow like, 3 weeks ago?

winter > Summer > winter > Summer

those are now the 4 seasons + construction

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Weren’t the lowlands flirting with snow like, 3 weeks ago?

Transition between seasons has been very quick lately. A strengthening El Niño doesn’t help.

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Weren’t the lowlands flirting with snow like, 3 weeks ago?

I'll bet there's still a 512 dam cutoff low still sitting off the Southern California coast at this time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Guess we don't get a spring this year.

[Anti Marine Layer]

@TT-SEA don't count on Palm Springs being warm in May anymore.

 

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really shouldn't be surprised anymore...

At least it comes with some convection on this run. Just to start the fires early….

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Heavy rain finally!

Thank the lord. Willamette National Forest is safe again.

[BLI snowman]

Our greatest May heat event on record was 1983. Food for thought....

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Our greatest May heat event on record was 1983. Food for thought....

There's already been lots of false alarms for you pluviophiles this year. I'm sure it will disappear in the next 5 days.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

There's already been lots of false alarms for you pluviophiles this year. I'm sure it will disappear in the next 5 days.

This one seems pretty consistent across all models and ensembles. And it’s more in line with the time of year and El Niño development.

[Omegaraptor]

Tonga

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Our greatest May heat event on record was 1983. Food for thought....

Would be magical...

[iFred]

Nice and humid.

[MossMan]

Warm in Wenatchee! Currently 76 degrees. Both the Skykomish and the Wenatchee rivers were raging way more than last week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty good rain today. Whining works. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some high water east of the Cascades. 

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty good rain today. Whining works. 

Told ya. Works for me every time! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Weren’t the lowlands flirting with snow like, 3 weeks ago?

Not here but further north some places might have been.

Currently 54F and cloudy. No rain this month yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can't believe everyone is just ignoring this heavy rain today.

[Slushy Inch]

More of a thunderstorm pattern.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can't believe everyone is just ignoring this heavy rain today.

I stayed up until 2:30 waiting for tstorms only for them to happen at 5am while I was sleeping. I’ve witnessed no heavy rain.

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can't believe everyone is just ignoring this heavy rain today.

It’s pretty light rain here in Corvallis. But regardless, we are receiving BLESSINGS from the Lord above.