Guest CulverJosh Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Need precip for snow levels to matter... models look pretty dry next weekend.Here we go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Yeah still looks pretty boring overall through mid December now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Here we go.Go where? Andrew basically just said the same thing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Go where? Andrew basically just said the same thing.Dry bias. Too early to know it’ll be dry. Looks pretty wet down here. The low will shift a few times in a week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Brian in Leavenworth was right. The Saturday system goes into Norcal now, dry and chilly next Saturday/Sunday. Turns into a nice snow event for SLC and Denver. Just like the Thanksgiving week storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Dry bias. Too early to know it’ll be dry. Looks pretty wet down here. The low will shift a few times in a week.Then too early to know about how cold the air mass will be as well. Call out Andrew for saying it looks dry. Of course it does. We won't be here... so don't really care. Would prefer it to be very wet. Also... leaning towards dry has been absolutely the way to go for the last 6 weeks. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis Cyclogenesis! Cyclogenesis everywhere! Over the next 18-24 hours three major areas of low pressure are forecast to deepen with two to 972mb and the main one near the Eastern Aleutians down to 953mb. The WPAC jet is kicking into overdrive and is going to try to beat down the ridging over us. C'MON!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Starting to fight those sun angles by then...increasing solar too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Then too early to know about how cold the air mass will be as well. Call out Andrew for saying it looks dry. Of course it does. We won't be here... so don't really care. Would prefer it to be very wet. Also... leaning towards dry has been absolutely the way to go for the last 6 weeks.Just that climatology is well in our favor at this point. I just don’t see a repeat of last year. The storms are going to break through earlier it is looking like. Not nearly the incessant ridging we had last year. And Alaska has been more active. It does mean something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Then too early to know about how cold the air mass will be as well. Call out Andrew for saying it looks dry. Of course it does. We won't be here... so don't really care. Would prefer it to be very wet. Also... leaning towards dry has been absolutely the way to go for the last 6 weeks. Yeah, there is precip and possibly decent mountain snows between now and then, but next weekend is looking dry for most of Oregon and Washington now. It looks like a situation where temps could get pretty chilly so I won't complain. Plus we have outdoor activities next weekend so dry and crisp would be perfect. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Really nice mountain snow producer in the long range. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just that climatology is well in our favor at this point. I just don’t see a repeat of last year. The storms are going to break through earlier it is looking like. Not nearly the incessant ridging we had last year. And Alaska has been more active. It does mean something.Great. More precip would likely mean everything is farther north and it's not as cold as shown. Whatever. We are not talking about the rest of December or the rest of winter. Just next weekend. Andrew said the snow levels look really low up here but the models also show it being dry at this point. He made a comment about the latest GFS run for next weekend... and I added that there is not much precip shown at that time. Somehow I am now making a prediction for the rest of the winter? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 50 degrees and cloudy here. Had 0.02” of precip this morning...0.57” for December. If the 18z verifies through day 7 we will be at 2 inches of rainfall mid way through December. This will be the 4th December in a row at my location to be below normal in rainfall unless the jet stream really gets going in the second half of the month. Haven’t had a really wet December since 2015. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 You know the weather is interesting when it's December and we're going over an hour between posts. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Going to go through most of the 11/20-12/20 period without any impressive cold in the lower 48, the cut-off trough at Thanksgiving in the SW notwithstanding. DEN hit -2 on 11/27, only the third time they've gone below 0 in November since 1983. And it's too soon to say there won't be more major cold in the lower 48 by 12/20. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Seahawks time...maybe focusing more on ballgames can help ease the boredom of the models of late. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Seems like a lot of false narratives get pushed here. One of which is that there has been major blocking this season...Just not true. There was some blocking early on, but it definitely has not established as a theme. There was plenty of fall blocking. Let's not get too caught up in our own backyards. The question is when does it return this winter and become favorable/more exciting for your area again. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 There was plenty of fall blocking. Let's not get too caught up in our own backyards. fallblocking.gif The question is when does it return and become favorable/more exciting for your area again. I think we're overlooking that airmass we had in late September - truly top tier cold for that time of year. A ton of cold records and early snow records fell with that airmass, some going back over a century. Hillsboro had its coldest September high on record and downtown Portland failed to break 50 (also coldest September high on record). Wenatchee's previous September record was 49, but that airmass brought a high of 47, then a high of 43 the very next day. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 There was plenty of fall blocking. Let's not get too caught up in our own backyards. fallblocking.gif The question is when does it return this winter and become favorable/more exciting for your area again. Pretty hard to have this happen without much blocking. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Pretty hard to have this happen without much blocking. 60dTDeptUS.pngLooks like Phil moved to west Texas...A lot of hot air in one area! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 I think we're overlooking that airmass we had in late September - truly top tier cold for that time of year. A ton of cold records and early snow records fell with that airmass, some going back over a century. Hillsboro had its coldest September high on record and downtown Portland failed to break 50 (also coldest September high on record). Wenatchee's previous September record was 49, but that airmass brought a high of 47, then a high of 43 the very next day. I think the boring weather since the beginning of November has made people forget that September and October were actually pretty interesting. There was a fairly wet period with a decent amount of thunderstorms and rain for lots of us in September regionally. Then there was several troughs in late September through Halloween that were historic air masses for that time of the year. Was a fairly active week of storms and rain up in western WA in Mid October too. It was a pretty interesting fall minus November IMO. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 I think we're overlooking that airmass we had in late September - truly top tier cold for that time of year. A ton of cold records and early snow records fell with that airmass, some going back over a century. Hillsboro had its coldest September high on record and downtown Portland failed to break 50 (also coldest September high on record). Wenatchee's previous September record was 49, but that airmass brought a high of 47, then a high of 43 the very next day. The combination of the late September air mass along with the two other big ones for the West/Plains in October was pretty much unprecedented for that early in the season. Then the East had a top tier cold air mass in early November. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Air is pretty stagnant so the low levels have developed a smog layer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Daffodils Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 I've definitely seen worse GEFS means in the LR. 4 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 I've definitely seen worse GEFS means in the LR. gfs-ens_z500a_namer_48.pngCould get wet and potentially stormy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Could get wet and potentially stormy Plenty of potential for the second half of the month. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 48/41 so far today. Currently 41. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Next weekend looks chilly on the 00z. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Garbage Seahawks game. Similar to what the rest of the winter has in store for us. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Next weekend looks chilly on the 00z. Yay. Low 40's for highs and sunny. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Plenty of potential for the second half of the month.Could be some cold onshore flow. I’d bet against arctic air at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Could be some cold onshore flow. I’d bet against arctic air at this point. Way too soon to say. Things can change very quickly. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Could be some cold onshore flow. I’d bet against arctic air at this point.Artic air looks pretty unlikely through December. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 May be enough mountain snow over the next couple weeks to comfortably put the legendary bad years behind us. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 May be enough mountain snow over the next couple weeks to comfortably put the legendary bad years behind us.04/05 comparison can be put to rest at least 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Garbage Seahawks game. Similar to what the rest of the winter has in store for us.I'm a happy Rams fan. Seahawks thought they could just show up and win and sometimes you get humbled. That's the NFL! Looking forward to some mountain snow! Lets go GFS and Euro! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 I'm a happy Rams fan. Seahawks thought they could just show up and win and sometimes you get humbled. That's the NFL! Looking forward to some mountain snow! Lets go GFS and Euro!Eh? I don’t know who thought they could roll into LA and win. Rams/Hawks games are always tough. Tonight was a bad bad game for this team. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 00z GFS after Day 7 the flow consolidates nicely, no split-flow, and looks like a La Nina pattern if anything. Go Chiefs! 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 3 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2019 Report Share Posted December 9, 2019 Big block develops over Scandinavia this run. That’s what I like to see. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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