snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 18z out to day 3. Time to see if the 12z was just a fluke or the beginning of the end. The 12z EPS says we are fine. All of the freaking out is over a possible trough in the NE delaying the cold a few days. Obviousy with tanked PNA the NE trough will be very short lived as the EPS shows. Nothing has changed. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 A few more for your viewing pleasure. Almost a carbon copy of the current state of the forum!I love it when you post these. There I am being cautiously optimistic! C'MON!!!! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I couldn't be here earlier to post the EURO maps. I have been dealing with a crummy headache all morning just now able to get out of bed. I wish I had stayed in bed after seeing how all 12z models look this morning aside from the 12z CMCE which has by far the best 500mb pattern. Luckily it's only one run. Let's hope this isn't a trend though. The energy must be pinched off with a kona low or else this could end up leading everyone off the cliff. GEFS didn't improve, it's the same chilly onshore flow. GEFS 500mb pattern is garbage. EPS looks real promising after Day 12. I just don't get excited about onshore flow and snow levels at 2000' +. It could be that the block just sit there for 5-7 days and sets the table for the real deal stuff later. The EPS keeps PNA well tanked -3 sigma and EPO finally tanks as well. A lot of potential ahead. Cautiously optimistic. C'MON!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 It has, but not really warm.Snowpack is absolute shitt right now. There’s not much point in having dry weather in winter IMO. Take away Nov-March and Portland has a semiarid climate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I am out of town and found some service and scanned the forum real fast and wow what surprise to see Tim go straight to posting bullshitt about trends from 1 run and going to the store in shorts lol. I have been on here long enuff to know Tim is a good man and takes care of his family and that is paramount but on the forum he is a little kid. OH TIM!!! I do like him though.Dude... I was the first to post about the EPS as well. I don't really have a cheering interest here. I am fine either way. I just post things as they come. Not a big deal. And throw in some goofy troll stuff just to keep it interesting... like daffodils coming up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 It has, but not really warm. +2 to +5 regionally is really warm IMO. If that situation were flipped we'd really be talking it up. Spokane has pulled off a nice low solar fueled +6.6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Could be some decent snow at pass levels and above from about Willamette Pass north with the New Year's system. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Snowpack is absolute shitt right now. There’s not much point in having dry weather in winter IMO. Take away Nov-March and Portland has a semiarid climate. Take away November-March and Chicago would be subtropical. Take away April-September and they would be sub-arctic. A lot of climate classifications would change if you remove almost half of the year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 18z Day 5 Kona! Kona! Kona! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 This is stressful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The opposite of my shed. Amazing how much stuff one accumulates over the years.My larger heated shed is a little less organized, planning to work on that later today. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 18z is splitting the difference between the 06z and 12z with the Friday system. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 18z looks a hair better than the 12z through hr 126.Yeah, still not as good as previous runs, but better than the cataclysmic 12z. Edit...Not much different through hour 162. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Take away November-March and Chicago would be subtropical. Take away April-September and they would be sub-arctic. A lot of climate classifications would change if you remove almost half of the year. I was actually running around outside in short sleeves on Thursday in downtown Chicago. A low-solar spawned 61 degrees at ORD that day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Day 7 meh almost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Through hour 174 it is actually worse. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Might be time to take a break from the models for a week or two...Yikes. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Yikes. Let's all hope this isn't a trend and that the EPS continues to lead the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 PDX holding in the 40s... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Sorry Jim. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Probably one of the quickest reversals from a promising pattern change back to total crap that I have ever seen. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Sorry Jim.It's the 18Z run. Don't be silly. As long as the EPS is consistent... it will be close to reality. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The GEFS could look 100 times better. The GFS Op typically (but not always) loses its run to run consistency after Day 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just told my wife that winter has been cancelled. That should at least bring back 500ft snow levels.Piece by piece Randy began to correct what he had done 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 It looks like the Drunkle is lost big time. All we have to hang onto now is Sno-Wizzes optimism and the consistency of the EPS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 It’s not great, but I’m actually liking the offshore flow after hour 180. A small silver lining. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 My neighbor knew and I didn’t tell him.Did you password protect all appliances and electronic devices? He may be listening in! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Daffodils are indeed poking up here... early this year. They were almost ready to bloom when the cold hit in early February. They were buried for almost 6 weeks and emerged from the snow and promptly bloomed in mid-March. They saw you in shorts and a t-shirtno mystery there 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 At face value the 18z starts January well above average. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 At hour 264 the 516 thickness line is nearing Columbia, South Carolina! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Day 11-12 trying to get its act together Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Fussing over details beyond Day 7 is maniacal at best. Onto the GEFS. 00z GFS in 4 hours 40 minutes00z ECMWF in 6 hours 55 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Please at least let us have HR 384. lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Pretty horrific gfs run after day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Remember guys, we have the gorge. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 LaLa Land looking good! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Probably one of the quickest reversals from a promising pattern change back to total crap that I have ever seen. It could be worseMarket could plummet on Monday wiping out all our gains for the year! Deep breaths and calm thyself January is going to be epic! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Probably one of the quickest reversals from a promising pattern change back to total crap that I have ever seen. I think it's more a testament to how hard up people around here are for any worthwhile weather when there's actually been this much hubbub over some cool onshore flow in the 8+ day range. Nothing great has ever been in view. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The 18Z says we are only 14 days from greatness! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I think it's more a testament to how hard up people around here are for any worthwhile weather when there's actually been this much hubbub over some cool onshore flow in the 8+ day range. Nothing great has ever been in view.Yeah, that’s the part I’m having trouble understanding. The models always just showed a good pattern for mountain/foothill snow at best in the believable range. And a handful of runs hinted at more potential down the road, but that was never consistent. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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