Requiem Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Operational runs continue to blow. Not a good sign. Good thing we got nailed in Feb....not all of us got nailed in February. Anyways, I’m not concerned. Models are really being mercurial right now. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Gross. Wavebreak is light years too far West. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 From this: To this: Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Ensembles are not based on what is being posted. Either the old GFS is king now, or it is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Crazy how now we have a big ridge over us around the 7th. Maybe we can at least parlay the initial airmass into a nice inversion. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 This is bullsh*t...wow....you aint kidding....disgusting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 10 Day Rainfall Totals 10 Day Snowfall Totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Legitimately excited about inversion potential. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Welp, onto college basketball... Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Legitimately excited about inversion potential.What’s so exciting about soupy fog and poor air quality? Just curious... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 What’s so exciting about soupy fog and poor air quality? Just curious... Cold anomalies! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Legitimately excited about inversion potential.Funny Cliff Mass just posted a blog on the dangers of fog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 and east winds!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 D**n this GFS run really stinks...in the fantasy range Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Cold anomalies!Pretty hard to get highs below low 40s without a cold airmass. Low 40s just isn’t interesting. I’d rather just have warmth at that point. Cold without snow is like pizza without cheese or toppings. But that’s just my opinion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 You all act like 24+ hours of bad model runs is a bad thing. It happens every winter... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Pretty hard to get highs below low 40s without a cold airmass. Low 40s just isn’t interesting. I’d rather just have warmth at that point. Cold without snow is like pizza without cheese or toppings. But that’s just my opinion.It's like trying to put bread on butter. Yeah. 00z ECMWF in 51 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 You all act like 24+ houts of bad model runs is a bad thing. It happens every winter...This. We’ll all be cheering in 18 hours when models flip again 5 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Apparently we even lost the GFS ensembles for a short period on January 29th during the low point of the horrific model runs! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Ensemble mean for Portland is down to about -7ºC 850s between 1/4 and 1/5. Of course the operational is still derping off into its own world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Well the GEM is now in agreement with the GFS op Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Haha. 00z GEFS Day 5 the Op was an outlier by 9.7c Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Haha. 00z GEFS Day 5 the Op was an outlier by 9.7cThat’s it? Haha Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 00z GEM = Garbage, but 12z GEM Op was an major outlier too and the Canadian Ensembles were much better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Still concerned with the operationals all being bush league. I think they'll end up being right. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 00z GEFS Day 7 The Op was 14c Warmer than the Ensemble mean. LOL Nice ! GFS RULES! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Finally! That's more like it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 When was the last time we saw the Operational and Ensembles THIS far apart with the Op being a massive outlier? .... Wacky things are happening. BIG time Op runs are coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Operational, hour 186 Ensembles: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 When was the last time we saw the Operational and Ensembles THIS far apart with the Op being a massive outlier? .... Wacky things are happening. BIG time Op runs are coming.Must be something to do with the op being run on the new gfs and the ensembles run on the old Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Hour 240, first the operational, than the enembles: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Must be something to do with the op being run on the new gfs and the ensembles run on the oldTechnically the ensembles are not the new FV3, but they were updated, so not quite the old GFS either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Done looking at this. Going to go watch The Expanse. Hope we keep the ensembles. Just saw an add for The Expanse and thought I should check it out. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Might as well look at hour 312: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 GEFS closest to arctic air than any other ensemble or op run yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I’m still browsing the Jan 2019 thread and the ensembles posted there are showing up as current runs...and to me they look lovely! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Yakima ensemble mean temp lower than PDX, so that signals colder air Gorge/east which means if there are any disturbances moving down the WA Coast if the jet is suppressed and lows that come in south of PDX = SNOW. Surface temps are cold!!!! http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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