Blizzard777 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/emlmha/so_were_still_two_days_away_from_the_snow_right/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share Posted 50 mins ago. The cat is really out of the bag now.Plenty of avocados still...I’m good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 GEM, on the contrary to the GFS, is actually stronger and further north. Valley gets rain sadly but PDX gets a big snowstorm with east winds. Weird how different models are for that thing...Mid to long range forecast is like Pachinko or Plinko is you're familiar with the Price Is Right. At Day 1, the model knows where to put the ball, these are the current conditions, as it drops the ball going into Day 2 to Day 7, there are many paths for it to take so this creates a lot of uncertainty. Each model behaves different as it bounces it ways through the many paths. This is why we have ensembles and ensemble means, they're better to look at than 1 Operational run. Edit: Also when ensemble means becomes very consistent in the long range, it should be very hard to discredit. This is what Tim tries to portrays many times with the EPS when it's super consistent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Gfs ensembles are improving up here for snowfall on both Sunday and mid week. Did you see the track map Hawkstwelve posted earlier? Most of those tracks are perfect for us Would take only a very minor tweak to the SW in the operational to get a major snowfall Sunday. As for the mid-late week stuff, we should be set for at least one good shot of snow so long as things don't trend further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 34 with a DP of 32 in Tacoma. Bit of Fog here but can see the moon still. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1013 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Light rain and 47F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Would take only a very minor tweak to the SW in the operational to get a major snowfall Sunday. As for the mid-late week stuff, we should be set for at least one good shot of snow so long as things don't trend further offshore.Yeah I'd be more enthused but the issue is that we only have the GFS on our side. All the others are way less favourable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Highs at or below freezing for 12 days in Seattle. even the Warmer run showing 12 sub freezing days in a row is pretty impressive. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Sunday afternoon battleground setup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Not when they toss up 3 days of snow. Just taking the snow out the picture... when I run the precip loop for the next 16 days on the 00Z GFS the thing I notice immediately is how dry it is in my area overall after Sunday. In terms of dry weather... it does not get much better in the middle of winter than the 00Z GFS. And look at the snowfall total for Wednesday - Saturday per that run for that ULL event: The totals are likely overstated as the GFS is very prone to do... and even the overstated amounts still result in almost no snow in my area. That set up in generally dry for King County... at any time of the year. I got more snow yesterday evening in about an hour than the GFS shows for the entire 3-day event. On the other hand... some places will score big with that set up! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Sunday afternoon battleground setup: Still just showing us getting around 3 inches. Very underwhelming for such a nice track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Highs at or below freezing for 12 days in Seattle. Not that it will actually happen but the current record for KSEA is 10 consecutive days below freezing set in 1969 I believe. It would be nice to break that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 The thing that is nice about this run is that we will all have some snow cover going into it and with the eastward drying fetch in the LR that snow is going to stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 For the poster who wanted to see Artic air pouring out around YVR Island and looping back into the Puget Sound: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 The thing that is nice about this run is that we will all have some snow cover going into it and with the eastward drying fetch in the LR that snow is going to stick around. No doubt... it will be a layer of cement. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just taking the snow out the picture... when I run the precip loop for the next 16 days on the 00Z GFS the thing I notice immediately is how dry it is in my area overall after Sunday. In terms of dry weather... it does not get much better in the middle of winter than the 00Z GFS. And look at the snowfall total for Wednesday - Saturday per that run for that ULL event: The totals are likely overstated as the GFS is very prone to do... and even the overstated amounts still result in almost no snow in my area. That set up in generally dry for King County... at any time of the year. I got more snow yesterday evening in about an hour than the GFS shows for the entire 3-day event. On the other hand... some places will score big with that set up! Yeah as we're getting closer it would seem the east wind will play a huge factor in how much snow people will get. This should concern snow lovers around the Puget Sound. If anything, go buy some chapsticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Still just showing us getting around 3 inches. Very underwhelming for such a nice track. I wouldn't be too concerned about the exact totals just yet. The low is still a notch too far to the north, about 50~100km further south and totals would be substantially higher, much further north and it will largely be a non-event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Low locations by 10PM Thursday... The cluster of lows on the NW have mostly gone away, good to see. Looking like somewhere near the mouth of the Columbia is the most likely spot at this time. Seems like a good place for a regionwide event if the low could actually produce some juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 For the poster who wanted to see Artic air pouring out around YVR Island and looping back into the Puget Sound: can't wait to watch this roll in. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 The thing that is nice about this run is that we will all have some snow cover going into it and with the eastward drying fetch in the LR that snow is going to stick around.If we’re going to get cold a blanket for my plants would be appreciated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Mark posted an update, says that there's agreement that the "event" for PDX will be Wednesday-Thursday but he is watching Monday for snow as well (thinks it'll be confined to the West Hills and areas above 500 ft or so). He also points out of course, that the exact track of the low is very difficult to see this far out. 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just taking the snow out the picture... when I run the precip loop for the next 16 days on the 00Z GFS the thing I notice immediately is how dry it is in my area overall after Sunday. In terms of dry weather... it does not get much better in the middle of winter than the 00Z GFS. And look at the snowfall total for Wednesday - Saturday per that run for that ULL event: The totals are likely overstated as the GFS is very prone to do... and even the overstated amounts still result in almost no snow in my area. That set up in generally dry for King County... at any time of the year. I got more snow yesterday evening in about an hour than the GFS shows for the entire 3-day event. On the other hand... some places will score big with that set up! WA county special! Less dry air and some upslope against the coast range. Still doesn't add up to more than 2-3 inches of fake GFS snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Hopefully I will get some snow sun thru Thursday period or I blame east winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 WRF is surprisingly dry by Monday morning... The greatest potential for snow here is from 4-7 p.m. on Sunday evening. By 10 p.m. the dry air has spread all the way out here. I wonder what else is happening from 4-7 p.m. on Sunday? My satellite went out last night with less than an inch of snow. <_> **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurston Howell III Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I lived west of Hiway 16 in Port Orchard at 400' and would get some crazy snow at times. Right at the edge of those hood canal snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurston Howell III Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Have several friends out in the hills, Seabeck hood canal area and amazing how many times they get 6" or more snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 WRF shows that I get about 4-5 inches of snow during the game and then it ends and there is really not much more snow here after that point for the rest of the week. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Actually doesn't look half bad for Sunday, at least for places with some elevation. Better than the 12z. According to this map it’s a good thing I moved back in 2018! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Actually doesn't look half bad for Sunday, at least for places with some elevation. Better than the 12z. Don't use the 12km resolution for snowfall maps... unless you really like being disappointed. Its terrible with terrain. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 WRF shows that I get about 4-5 inches of snow during the game and then it ends and there is really not much more snow here after that point for the rest of the week. Well if you lose satellite we will keep you informed in the banter thread! I will be swearing lots!! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 The WRF looks utterly fantastic for the East Puget Sound Lowlands Sunday evening. The surface low takes the perfect path for enhanced snowfall in the EPSL with plunging temperatures on the back side of the low. With cold air already in place in Whatcom County a flash freeze possible with this. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 00z UKMET just updated. Days 4-6. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 It's only out to Tuesday night..I think he’s saying cause the east winds will eat away all the snow along the foothill communities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 ECMWF 00z looking better for Seattle late Sunday night and early Monday morning. C-zone develops behind the low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 And the new 00Z ECMWF agrees that it will be dumping snow here during the game... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 It's only out to Tuesday night.. It will not show much more snow here. I already saw the GFS maps for Wed - Sat. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 10 AM Monday33-34F mix in PDX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Low is a bit further south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 10 AM Monday33-34F mix in PDX splitting hairs but that’s rain at pdx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 And the new 00Z ECMWF agrees that it will be dumping snow here during the game... Gonna have to rely on the running game... 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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