Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Temperatures At/Below -40

 

Alaska

Chalkyitsik -54

Fort Yukon -52

Tok -50

Northway -48

Mosquito Creek -47

Birch Creek -46

Wade Creek -46

Chicken -46

Coal Creek -46

Seven Mile -45

Vunzik Lake -45

Lost Creek -45

Arctic Village -44

May Creek -43

Gulkana -42

Eagle -41

Central -41

McCarthy -40

Chitina -40

Copper Center -40

Tok River Valley -40

 

 

Yukon

Watson Lake -52

Carmacks -50

Dawson -49

Pelly River -48

Old Crow -47

Burwash -44

Whitehorse -43

Stewart River -42

Aishihik Lake -41

Teslin -40

 

 

Northwest Territories

Wekweeti -54

Rabbit Kettle -53

Lac La Martre -49

Yellowknife -45

Fort Reliance -43

Beaver River -43

Fort Simpson -42

Rae Lakes -40

Fort Providence -40

[bainbridgekid]

6z GFS is a little snowier for Whatcom County through 4 PM tomorrow. Snow has reached the North Snohomish County line at that time.

[van city]

[bainbridgekid]

6z with a nice looking CZ for much of the Central Sound 4PM-10PM tomorrow

[runninthruda206]

[bainbridgekid]

Easily the snowiest run yet for most of the South and Central Sound.

 

Widespread 3-5 inches by Tuesday morning.

[wxmet]

GFS keeps it snowing. Pivotal showing 5.5in. in Seattle by Tuesday morning. 

[North_County]

6z GFS is a little snowier for Whatcom County through 4 PM tomorrow. Snow has reached the North Snohomish County line at that time.

Temps are pretty borderline for Whatcom until sometime between 4 and 10. Even more so for the North Sound. Threading the needle a bit.

[Meatyorologist]

GFS is way too overzealous with the arctic front, I'd slash those totals in half. Still a fun-as-hell morning for the Puget Sound.

 

More importantly (especially for Portland), it's improved the cold pool within the mountains and eastern Washington.

[Cloud]

GFS shows surface temps only getting up into the upper 20s Monday and Tuesday with a north or offshore wind, 925s of -8c to -10c, and 850s of -8c to -12c.

 

Doesn't sound like rain to me. Unless you think it's getting all those factors wrong...

He's being sarcastic of course. 

[bainbridgekid]

Thursday snowstorm is a go on the 6z GFS for both Portland and Seattle!

 

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

GFS weakens the midweek system quite a lot right before landfall. Oddly enough, this works in the favor of Puget Sound folks due to the decreased east winds and henceforth decreased drying effect from them.

 

A weaker storm also means a much less pronounced to nearly nonexistent warm nose, meaning the cold air stays around for longer. Unfortunately, the airmass in BC and eastern Washington moderates swiftly after that, so any overrunning event after the fact would be swift and short-lived.

[FroYoBro]

Thursday snowstorm is a go on the 6z GFS for both Portland and Seattle!

 

sn10_024h.us_nw (2).png

Cutting it super close for the Portland area though.

[bainbridgekid]

Another overrunning event Friday into Friday evening on the 6z.

[bainbridgekid]

I've felt confident in widespread snowfall for the Puget Sound region tomorrow night all along, but tonight's models having me feeling more confident than ever.

 

Hopefully we wake up to more good news!

[Gradient Keeper]

Looking promising for a regional wide snow event/storm.

 

It's possible PDX metro especially East of I-205 is below freezing from Tuesday evening through Friday evening.

[Meatyorologist]

Air is still fairly dry. Experience tells me that you are looking at a 3rd or even a 4th of modeled QPF falling. This will be a great car topper and grass coater, maybe someone gets some asphalt covered, but that is about it. People should be concerned about the black ice and possible minor flooding next weekend as temps spike. Long range, winter is probably over.

Just tell me when the goddamn QPF will hit my house Fred, you sarcastic s**t. (Massive /s here because the forum has been touchy lately)

[bainbridgekid]

Odd little tangent in the NWS morning AFD about stratiform vs. convective wording. At any rate, there was a hint about downgrading the WSW and they put out an inch or two as being a pretty good bet.

 

Depending on how the 12z runs go, knowing NWS Seattle, I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull back on the watches and lower totals. Which is fine with me - makes it even sweeter when the CZ stalls and dumps 6+ somewhere.

That's some funny weather nerd drama in the AFD:

 

The forecast has stratiform weather--rain likely/snow likely etc, I would prefer if it said showers but lately we have not been making a big deal about the difference in the forecast and choosing convective precip over stratiform isn`t in vogue for some reason. Wouldn`t it be something if a thunderstorm formed along a convective band of showers this evening. We shall see. The modified arctic front will linger over the area Monday and Tuesday with spotty light precip lingering--especially in the southern half of Western Washington.

[bainbridgekid]

Winter Storm Warning now for Whatcom, Skagit, and San Juan Counties.

Updated Winter Storm Watch for the rest of the area:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
230 AM PST Sun Jan 12 2020

WAZ507-509-511-556-558-559-130000-
/O.CON.KSEW.WS.A.0002.200112T2300Z-200113T1400Z/
Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-
Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
including Everett, Lynnwood, Marysville, Stanwood, Tacoma, Fife,
DuPont, Puyallup, Shelton, Seabeck, Belfair, Brinnon, Bellevue,
Bothell, Kenmore, Mill Creek, Clearview, Kirkland, Newcastle,
Redmond, Sammamish, Issaquah, Seattle, White Center, Tukwila,
Renton, Burien, Des Moines, Kent, Federal Way, Bremerton,
Poulsbo, and Indianola
230 AM PST Sun Jan 12 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible late this afternoon and evening.
Snow accumulation of 1 or 2 inches likely and 3 to 5 inches
possible.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

[bainbridgekid]

Updated Zone Forecasts:

 

Western Whatcom: 4-5"

Everett and East Puget Sound Lowlands: 2-6"

Seattle: 1-4"

Tacoma: 1"

[IceKing]

What the hell did you just fricken say about me, you little zoomer? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in WesternWx, and I’ve been involved in numerous secret model conference calls with the National Weather Service, and I have over 300 confirmed forecasts.

 

I am trained in model riding and I’m the top forecaster in the entire US weather map. You are nothing to me but just another arm chair meatyorlogist. I will wipe you out with forecasting precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my words.

 

You think you can get away with saying that crap to me over the Internet? Think again, zoomer. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of weather spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the snow storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You’re fricken dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can Kucheria you in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just with my bare forecasting hands.

 

Not only am I extensively trained in reading warm EPS runs and forecasted radar frames, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Global Forecasting System and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable a** off the frozen face of the continent, you little zoomer. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your soon-to-be frozen tongue.

 

But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you gosh darn idiot. I will defecate frozen fury all over you and you will drown in it.

 

You’re frozen dead, kiddo.

Absolutely incredible, iFrederick. You are a God for doing this.

 

Sad this will be underappreciated with how good it was.

 

May I suck your toes?

[Meatyorologist]

 

What the hell did you just fricken say about me, you little zoomer? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in WesternWx, and I’ve been involved in numerous secret model conference calls with the National Weather Service, and I have over 300 confirmed forecasts.

 

I am trained in model riding and I’m the top forecaster in the entire US weather map. You are nothing to me but just another arm chair meatyorlogist. I will wipe you out with forecasting precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my words.

 

You think you can get away with saying that crap to me over the Internet? Think again, zoomer. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of weather spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the snow storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You’re fricken dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can Kucheria you in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just with my bare forecasting hands.

 

Not only am I extensively trained in reading warm EPS runs and forecasted radar frames, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Global Forecasting System and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable a** off the frozen face of the continent, you little zoomer. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your soon-to-be frozen tongue.

 

But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you gosh darn idiot. I will defecate frozen fury all over you and you will drown in it.

 

You’re frozen dead, kiddo.

 

Navy Seal copypasta. Classic.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS la-la land is interesting. I suppose worth commenting on.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Ensembles for Yakima shows a definite cold pool signature with temperatures after the 20th not reaching freezing now through the 28th. That's BIG change. What does that mean? Likely persistent cold low level air and east winds through the Gorge into PDX.

[MossMan]

IFred!

 

Anyway I don’t like the 6z...My area misses out. Hopefully the 12z fixes that glitch.

 

35 and windy currently.

[Blizzard777]

6z GFS la-la land is interesting. I suppose worth commenting on.

 

 

That feels like a year away currently! 

long hallway syndrome 

[Blizzard777]

38* 

34 dp

[The Swamp]

Could be right... I tend to go with the ECMWF for this stuff but the WRF has me wondering if there is some truth to what its showing.

 

I know many places will get snow. And everyone who posts their snow totals or pics will say I specifically said it wouldn't happen. But I never said that.

You should go get checked out man. It could be contagious. Wow!

[TT-SEA]

Timmy... this really sucks! No point in being in Hawaii when it's like this... and even more so when there is something happening here that its interesting.

 

[TT-SEA]

In range of the HRRR now... here is 7 p.m.

 

 

 

And then it shows the c-zone dropping south...

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

06Z ECMWF... total snow from 4 p.m. through 4 a.m. tomorrow.

 

 

 

And then it shows more snow from 4 a.m. Monday through 4 a.m. on Tuesday...

 

[TT-SEA]

And more snow again from 4 a.m. Tuesday through 4 a.m. Wednesday...

 

[snow maniac]

So just a dusting until Wednesday. Woohoo!

[Timmy]

Timmy... this really sucks! No point in being in Hawaii when it's like this... and even more so when there is something happening here that its interesting.

 

Kona!!!

[TT-SEA]

Kona!!!

 

 

It does seem to be really wet down there when the PNW is flirting with arctic air.

 

We caught the tail end of a very wet pattern down there after we escaped through 4 feet of snow last February.  The first day was pretty wet... but then it was sunny in Kauai for the rest of the trip.  I remember the moisture plume was just to the east and Maui and the Big Island were still wet for several more days.   My sons had friends from school on those islands and they kept reporting how bad it was while we were just far enough west to have perfect weather.   Very lucky!

[TT-SEA]

Rain is pounding on the roof and the house is shaking in the wind.    Can't wait for the cold air to get here... it will stop this relentless rain.  

 

This pattern has set up Snoqualmie Summit for skiing probably through April now... so it was worth it.    But it would be nice to get some kind of break now. 

[FroYoBro]

The real fun starts today.

 

I hope everybody enjoys their one week of winter! 

[TT-SEA]

Trying to add up the numbers... I think Snoqualmie Summit might be over 4 feet of snow since Thursday.

[FroYoBro]

Timberline has gotten 33 inches in the last 48 hours. Meadows 25 inches,

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=PQR

[Prairiedog]

I noticed the birds really started devouring the bird seed yesterday...They know it’s coming!

 

Just hit 34.9 degrees.

.73” on the day.

My birds were feeding at one of my feeding spots as well, Mourning doves.  They didn't see it coming.  Coopers Hawk.  Just a pile of feathers left.  Moral of the story,  it's what you don't see coming.  .  .  .POW.  Hoping the cold air will be enough to give PDX area a chance.  It will have to be supported by at least some east wind.  Any hint of southerlies and we're just a pile of feathers.  One or two degrees one way or the other will mean everything at or near the valley floor.  K%% will out perform me at 315ft.  Closer to the lee side of the Coast Range will do better too if the east winds develop.