Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[FroYoBro]

Upper levels cooled down in NW Oregon in the last hour. Any last showers this morning should be snow. Not sure if they survive over the coast range though. 

[TT-SEA]

You're not going to need much cheerleading...

 

 

No doubt.   

[MossMan]

12z 03km NAM keeps the heaviest totals over northern areas. Lesser totals (obviously still respectable) and further north than 06z.

 

Boooooo.

I like that color shade over my house!

[Cloud]

12z NAM thinks the warm front will be Everett-north kinda deal.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No doubt.

 

Do you get powerful east winds at your place like what is shown for late tomorrow?

[TT-SEA]

Looks like that area of low pressure is crossing the Olympic mountains now and getting ready to bring in a band of snow the the central sound.

 

 

You can clearly see the curl on the radar up around Port Angeles representing the NW quadrant of that low pressure area.

 

[AJ1013]

Mild morning here in Tucson. Currently 42F

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You can clearly see the curl on the radar up around Port Angeles representing the NW quadrant of that low pressure area.

 

The looping uw radar shows it pretty good. I know you don't use that one but it shows this pretty good.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hrrr further south for tonight. Looks good for all of puget sound.

[TT-SEA]

Do you get powerful east winds at your place like what is shown for late tomorrow?

 

Usually not up here. Much more on the valley floor. I remember in December 2008 we were supposed to be slammed with wind and it ended up being just a little breezy up here but basically nothing at all. It was probably gusting to 40 mph down in the valley through.

 

North Bend gets rocked when its an east wind... but if the angle is a little more from the SE then Enumclaw gets pummeled and its not too bad in North Bend.

 

This looks like more of a North Bend event and not Enumclaw. But it does not look extremely strong... probably some 40 mph gusts which is not unusual in the winter. I don't see a damaging event in the valley. All the trees here are very used to the east wind and it takes a lot to cause problems.

 

 

[FroYoBro]

Astoria is reporting 34 degrees and light snow. 

[DamascusGuy]

Nice snow shower in Damascus. This may be it for January here sadly.

[TT-SEA]

The looping uw radar shows it pretty good. I know you don't use that one but it shows this pretty good.

 

 

I do like that radar because it gives you a nice view of the big picture.   As I have mentioned... because its a composite of numerous radars there can be overlapping and things can look more robust than reality.   That does not seem to be the case this morning.   And it really shows the center of the low pressure area well right now.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Sadly no snow in Portland yet.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Astoria is reporting 34 degrees and light snow. 

 

Where's that marine influence?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How does 06z euro look Tim?

[TT-SEA]

How does 06z euro look Tim?

Posted it on last page.

[MossMan]

Snow really coming down now! 20.6 degrees.

[Skagit Weather]

21F and moderate snow here. Really appreciate this band moving in from the strait.

[TT-SEA]

Snow really coming down now! 20.6 degrees.

 

 

Does not look like much on radar... that cold air is effective at wringing out all the available moisture.  

[TT-SEA]

I thought the main event with this system would be this morning... radar is saying I was wrong for the Seattle area at least.

[jakerepp]

WOW What did I just read from the NWS? This is why I don't night shift! Way too fun to wake up and see a call for 3-5 more inches of snow .

Anyways, 27 here right now and just a light dusting from last night before I even went to bed. Roads are covered, but only just. 

My wife is ferrying a elderly woman to jury duty today. Apparently she lives 3 minutes away from us and barely got out yesterday in her electric car. Wouldn't want her on the road with the conditions they are in this morning...

[FroYoBro]

Temperature is falling even without showers. No luck with that moisture making it over the coast range to me. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON keeps the snow north of Everett tonight.   But it did shift south from the last couple runs,

 

You would think the ICON could have a handle on something just 12 hours away.   Maybe not.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z icon trending toward the snowy solution for Seattle area.

[Bham_Guy]

21F and moderate snow here. Really appreciate this band moving in from the strait.

 

Looks like it's going to make it to Bellingham as well. Glad to see you guys finally getting something.

[Weiner Warrior]

Radar slightly filling in over north seattle as low shifts east

[Gradient Keeper]

6:55 AM Upper Air Temps

 

• 925mb

Portland: -2.0c

Salem: -1.5c

The Dalles: -4.8c

Seattle: -5.5c

Bellingham: -7.7c

Pendleton: -5.0c

Moses Lake: -9.0c

Spokane: -8.0c

Omak: -11.3c

*Note the 925mb isotherm contours and how they are 'stacked' across the central and eastern Gorge. This would typically represent a decent low level blast IF we had offshore gradients.

 

• 850mb

Portland: -7.2c

Salem: -7.0c

The Dalles: -7.0c

Seattle: -9.5c

Bellingham: -11.3c

Pendleton: -6.0c

Moses Lake: -9.2c

Spokane: -9.5c

Omak: -13.0c

 

Everything depends on if the arctic air from the now snow covered central Gorge and Columbia Basin holds in place, or if its briefly pushed back today. If so, then we may not get enough arctic air pulled back into the Gorge and the east winds won't help us get cold enough. However, if the arctic air remains in these areas that changes things quite a bit and would likely lead to a period of snow for PDX metro perhaps for 4-8 hours. Hood River and The Dalles are forecast to be 32-34 today. The snow covered central Gorge and Columbia Basin would be huge if it remains in place through Tuesday night.

 

[TT-SEA]

Light coating on the driveway since I cleared it an hour ago.

 

[Blizzard777]

12z 03km NAM keeps the heaviest totals over northern areas. Lesser totals (obviously still respectable) and further north than 06z.

 

Boooooo.

Agree, this one is going to hurt

everything North of us....actual accumulating snow.

1/4 inch so far since last night for my area

[snowbustcity]

Barely anything for Seattle overnight.

[jakerepp]

Barely anything for Seattle overnight.

Every time your name verifies, I'm gonna chuckle. Every time it doesn't, I'm gonna chuckle. 

[jakerepp]

Yeah, have a feeling this is going to be Sunday night 2.0.

 

So close, yet so far.

Maybe y'all need to pack up and move out close to Kayla.

[HighlandExperience]

12z icon trending toward the snowy solution for Seattle area.

To bad it’s the icon. Hope that shifts south a bit more

[TT-SEA]

Quite the wintry scene in North Bend at this pre-dawn hour... elevation in the valley is 438 feet.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

7 AM 925s now -3c over PDX. If we can keep the south wind at a minimum this is good for all snow showers, slushy accumulations. 850s down to -8c.

[HighlandExperience]

[Cloud]

Latest HRRR looks to be a little further north than previous through 8PM.

 

Not looking good for us south of Seattle.

Guess those of us around Seattle will have to just enjoy the 0.5” from Sunday night and the other 0.5” from last night.

 

Wednesday system look like as well anyway with the east wind.

[FroYoBro]

7 AM 925s now -3c over PDX. If we can keep the south wind at a minimum this is good for all snow showers, slushy accumulations. 850s down to -8c.

It’s definitely cold enough. There is just a force field activated here against snowflakes.

[MossMan]

Nothing like moderate snow and 20 degrees...Love it!