Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[soicandownloadattachedfile]

850mb temps warm up significantly from tomorrow afternoon to Wednesday afternoon. I really think it's technically a warm front. Although the east wind kicks in right after so it won't feel much warmer... or be much warmer until Thursday. That east wind taps into the cold pool. Wind switches to south on Thursday.

Yes, the kink in the isobars along the axis of precipitation would suggest it's some type of front.

[Perturbed Member]

That low is gonna look impressive on satellite in two days...

 

It weirdly manages to dissipate from an impressive 973 mb to nothing in no time. 

 

Odd looking thing.

 

In 12 hours:

[TT-SEA]

[snowbustcity]

Seattle getting holed

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is also somewhat interesting the airmass down here is modeled to be about the same Thursday night as it is now...Chilly onshore flow. 

[MikeInEverett]

Snow is way too light to see any notable accumulation at the moment.

[Cloud]

Seattle getting holed

 

Pretty much the right choice in username here. 

[runninthruda206]

Seattle getting holed

 

 

Yeah what is that all about!!!!!!

[OysterPrintout]

It weirdly manages to dissipate from an impressive 973 mb to nothing in no time. 

 

Odd looking thing.

 

In 12 hours:

 

[Weiner Warrior]

NWS says:

 

As cold air from AK continues to pour over the NE Pacific, it will interact with a strong jet stream. This could lead to rapid development of strong low pressure off of our coast. There is potential for a high east wind event near the Cascades late Wednesday. Stay tuned.

[GHweatherChris]

This looks promising. Unfortunately not going to be able to stay up much longer to see things develop better.

 

Hope when I wake up around 5:30 a good chunk of people will have gotten 1-3 inches.

I won't

[BLI snowman]

It weirdly manages to dissipate from an impressive 973 mb to nothing in no time. 

 

Odd looking thing.

 

In 12 hours:

 

 

Conjured up overnight by the devil to raise hell and despair in the PNW weather community and then just as quickly poofed into oblivion. Pretty sure that was the plot of a Stephen King novel...

[GHweatherChris]

And of course it is now snowing!

[TT-SEA]

For posterity sake... here is the coldest point of this event at the 850mb level which is at 10 a.m. tomorrow morning.

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Interestingly... the ECMWF even shows some lowland snow around western WA on Saturday morning still. It's a tepid warm up.

 

No more more north wind after early tomorrow morning though.

 

 

Walter Kelly just said it will be sticking around through Saturday morning, kinda surprised me to hear that.  As for the north wind, are you saying no more north wind down there or no more Frazier Outflow?  I thought the FO was going to fire up again on Wednesday/Thursday...I think I saw it mentioned here?

 

Welcome back!

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty healthy looking echos aimed at the central valley. Too bad it is too warm. 

[runninthruda206]

that hole over seattle better fill in or im gonna be sad

[TT-SEA]

This band is going enhance the snow for the EPSL early tomorrow morning...

 

[SnarkyGoblin]

that hole over seattle better fill in or im gonna be sad

At least in Seattle, Fremont, the radar is not representative of what is falling. Not sure why.

[Cloud]

that hole over seattle better fill in or im gonna be sad

Better hope the developing low sink south a little. Checking the satellite loop for last hour, it's current location is not ideal for snow for the Seattle area as it's in  the direct path of the shadowing effect. 

[seattleweatherguy]

down to 25 and snowing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty healthy looking echos aimed at the central valley. Too bad it is too warm. 

 

Reminds me of the energy that moved through the central and south valley dropping 1-2" of snow in late February 2018. 

[TT-SEA]

Walter Kelly just said it will be sticking around through Saturday morning, kinda surprised me to hear that.  As for the north wind, are you saying no more north wind down there or no more Frazier Outflow?  I thought the FO was going to fire up again on Wednesday/Thursday...I think I saw it mentioned here?

 

Welcome back!

 

No more north wind on the ECMWF for the next 10 days after early tomorrow morning for the Seattle area.

 

Outflow hangs on up there until Wednesday evening.   By Thursday morning... its done up there as well and its into the 40s.   Maybe my parents will be able to leave their house and get down their hill... which would be good because my dad just had major surgery.

 

 

 

But the air mass cools down again on Friday into Saturday... enough for some lowland snow in places despite the lack of Fraser outflow.   Its a pretty weak warm up.   

[Cloud]

At least in Seattle, Fremont, the radar is not representative of what is falling. Not sure why.

This light stuff is not going to amount to anything in term of meaningful accumulation. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Radar filling in nicely. Seattle should get a few inches by morning

[Deweydog]

Pretty healthy looking echos aimed at the central valley. Too bad it is too warm.

Plenty of moisture, not cold enough. Cold enough, not enough moisture.

 

Has this ever been brought up before?

[Deweydog]

One win may be my front loaded musings...

 

Starting to look like November may still have a legitimate shot at being the coldest/snowiest stretch of the winter in the lowlands down this way. Might even be the most likely outcome at this point.

[GHweatherChris]

Shower activity off the ocean has been for here. Even good echoes only spit a flurry here tonight.

[TT-SEA]

This light stuff is not going to amount to anything in term of meaningful accumulation. 

 

Tomorrow morning will be snowy in Seattle.   

[runninthruda206]

Better hope the developing low sink south a little. Checking the satellite loop for last hour, it's current location is not ideal for snow for the Seattle area as it's in  the direct path of the shadowing effect. 

 

 

Booo!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Tim is back!!!

[TT-SEA]

Here is the snow for early Saturday morning... still cold.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Worst case, the moisture doing nothing here as it passes through means promise for others!!

[TT-SEA]

Woah.

[Weiner Warrior]

Is your name kevin martin too?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One win may be my front loaded musings...

 

Starting to look like November may still have a legitimate shot at being the coldest/snowiest stretch of the winter in the lowlands down this way. Might even be the most likely outcome at this point.

 

Sad but possible. Would also validate my call that this winter would be a dud in general. I guess February could save us again, but chances seem slim.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Snowing for 3 hours in Puyallup, still struggling to stick tho

[Deweydog]

Oh yeah... let’s do this!!!

[Front Ranger]

One win may be my front loaded musings...

 

Starting to look like November may still have a legitimate shot at being the coldest/snowiest stretch of the winter in the lowlands down this way. Might even be the most likely outcome at this point.

The main event of the winter so far for the PNW is obviously happening this week.

 

MLK was a closer call...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking pretty cold for Seattle.

 

iFred. Is that you?!