Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Why not try looking at the models?

They show a grand total of zero sub-40F highs for here. Of which we have had zero since Dec 1. First time since 1933-34.

[Gradient Keeper]

Lets get it in to NAM range!!

Day 3 to 3.5! It's a LOCK! C'MON!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Bit burned out by earlier this month, tbh.

Plus it’s already obvious a large chunk of this forum will miss out on anything interesting so there really isn’t any reason for hype from the Oregon lowlanders.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sometimes things that don’t look so great can turn good.

We shall see... 

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS definitely shifts everything east more quickly... here is day 10.

 

[Cloud]

An actual Kona low on the ECMWF at day 7 as well.

 

I'm pretty surprised at how little interest there is on here right now. The models have been pretty good over all.

I’m keeping my expectations low while being cautiously optimistic. Rather keep it low and be happy if there is something than have high expectations to be extremely disappointed.

 

Last cold shot showed that much.

[GHweatherChris]

At least the 00z Euto tonight is better then last nights.

[Gradient Keeper]

00Z EPS definitely shifts everything east more quickly... here is day 10.

 

Nope. That'll be wrong. Then right. Then wrong again. THEN OMG. Then AH !!!! Then????....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I agree with others. This winter has been so awful and we were so burned by the last "round" that most are going to take a believe it when we see it approach. Especially when there is no consensus and no clear signals.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These are the kind of nights when Tim comes in handy. This is just model noise, definitely not a trend, and the EPS. UGH.

[Gradient Keeper]

I agree with others. This winter has been so awful and we were so burned by the last "round" that most are going to take a believe it when we see it approach. Especially when there is no consensus and no clear signals.

Yeah, BUT.... When we're within 72-96 hours and see maps like that.... AND THEN? Does it all slide to the east? OR? .... Stay tuned!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS

 

[jakeinthevalley]

Climo will win out.

 

Why do long range solutions always show the non climo patterns?

We fall for it every time

[luvssnow_spokane]

Climo will win out.

 

Why do long range solutions always show the non climo patterns?

We fall for it every time

I so hear you... it amazes me people do the same stuff over and over... that being said this is not a real promising pattern... two or three days of moderate mid to upper 30’s, snowless cold is not all that exciting. Lol! 

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS is pretty bland in the 10-15 day period... particularly when compared to the great consistency leading up the last event showing significant arctic air in BC and right down to the border even at 10-15 days out.

 

[jakeinthevalley]

I think I am going back to the NOAA weather radio.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Climo will win out.

 

Why do long range solutions always show the non climo patterns?

We fall for it every time

Climo did not win out for areas North if Seattle. I lived in Anacortes for decades, and I believe that their 12 inch snowfall is the most I have ever heard of for them. Other areas had several snows. Overall not an extreme pattern regionwide, but far from climo. Maybe it was for your backyard, but an extreme event for many.

[TT-SEA]

Climo did not win out for areas North if Seattle. I lived in Anacortes for decades, and I believe that their 12 inch snowfall is the most I have ever heard of for them. Other areas had several snows. Overall not an extreme pattern regionwide, but far from climo. Maybe it was for your backyard, but an extreme event for many.

Yeah... it was impressive from Everett northward. No doubt.

[HighlandExperience]

Climo did not win out for areas North if Seattle. I lived in Anacortes for decades, and I believe that their 12 inch snowfall is the most I have ever heard of for them. Other areas had several snows. Overall not an extreme pattern regionwide, but far from climo. Maybe it was for your backyard, but an extreme event for many.

Skagit County and that area had one of their best snows in a long time. They were due for it. Amazing how terrible that area is for snow. Puyallup might be better.

[Requiem]

Skagit County and that area had one of their best snows in a long time. They were due for it. Amazing how terrible that area is for snow. Puyallup might be better.

Well, we all know what the worst place for snow is...

[Requiem]

Well, we all know what the worst place for snow is...

I’m talking about Cancun btw

[Phil]

ECMWF has the SSW/potential SSW as well.

[Phil]

Tim is being a negative nancy. EPS looks solidly blocky in the clown range.

 

Kill the PV and all kinds of potential opens up.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Tim is being a negative nancy. EPS looks solidly blocky in the clown range.

 

Kill the PV and all kinds of potential opens up.

 

I thought so. DANG IT, TIM!

 

Looks real promising.

[TT-SEA]

I thought so. DANG IT, TIM!

 

Looks real promising.

I only looked at 850mb temps... was on my phone. That does look better. No idea why it was not colder overall for the entire country. The 500mb and 850mb maps don't really match.

[jcmcgaffey]

Hasn’t been too bad up in the mountains. Snoqualmie has seen mostly snow with some rain the last 4-5 days. Snoqualmie has been hovering around freezing for most of the time. Not as bad as so far as it was originally looking.

[Omegaraptor]

I’m talking about Cancun btw

Cancun’s near the tail end of the tropics. Record low is 46°F. You can still get quite a bit worse than it. Think Singapore or Maldives. Both have record lows just under 67°F, using Malé to represent Maldives.

 

Apparently on March 12 1857 it snowed in Cardenas, Cuba.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Where has Dewey been

[TT-SEA]

Hasn’t been too bad up in the mountains. Snoqualmie has seen mostly snow with some rain the last 4-5 days. Snoqualmie has been hovering around freezing for most of the time. Not as bad as so far as it was originally looking.

 

It has not been too bad in terms of the overall snow pack.   Conditions have not been good... and freezing rain has been an issue closing some areas and lifts at times.   But it could have been much worse.   

[TT-SEA]

GFS has been keeping the AR event focused mainly up in SW BC later in the week... farther north than the ECMWF.

 

12Z GFS is the same... and then brings the trough inland one week from today but does not dig the trough in the desert SW like the ECMWF has been doing recently.    

 

The 12Z GFS is very different than the 00Z ECMWF early next week.

 

00Z ECMWF:

 

 

12Z GFS:

 

[Timmy Supercell]

KLMT had 0.35" rainfall out of this.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.26” this morning...currently at 7.43” for January.

[TacomaWaWx]

GFS has been keeping the AR event focused mainly up in SW BC later in the week... farther north than the ECMWF.

 

12Z GFS is the same... and then brings the trough inland one week from today but does not dig the trough in the desert SW like the ECMWF has been doing recently.    

 

The 12Z GFS is very different than the 00Z ECMWF early next week.

 

00Z ECMWF:

 

 

12Z GFS:

 

Recent events would make me trust the euro more...but we will see.

[TT-SEA]

Recent events would make me trust the euro more...but we will see.

 

 

I am not sure.   The GFS clearly lead the way with the overall pattern last time... while the ECMWF flailed around early on.

 

But the GFS was clearly too aggressive with the cold air... so while it did well with the big picture even at a long range it did not do well with the details of that pattern.   And that became painfully obvious to those from Seattle southward.  

[TacomaWaWx]

I am not sure.   The GFS clearly lead the way with the overall pattern last time... while the ECMWF flailed around early on.

 

The GFS was clearly to aggressive with the cold air though... so while it did well with the big picture even at a long range it did not do well with the details of that pattern.

That is true...gfs has been showing this cooler Super Bowl system for atleast a few days now. I guess we will just have to see what they’re showing by next Friday.

[snow_wizard]

I was just looking at the GFS vs ECMWF teleconnection forecasts from the 0z and it's obvious we have a huge disagreement going on.  The GFS is not even remotely like the entire ECMWF suite of models.  It appears they handle the MJO differently which likely accounts for much of it.  The good news is the GFS will get to the right place on the MJO by the 10th or so while the ECMWF gets there much sooner.

 

The one thing about the GFS vs ECMWF is the potential fun snow event next weekend.  Either way it turns out we will have some fun stuff to track.

[Timmy Supercell]

Wow, these clouds were in a huge rush to clear up. lol

 

Sun is out, I guess.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like the pattern change next week may bring some sun to the region.

[Cloud]

Today’s the first day we officially hit post-5pm sunset for Seattle. The sun sets at 5:00:18pm today!