Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A billion times this.

It's not that there is a warm message I am trying hide from with a security blanket, it is that it feels like someone is smacking me over the head over and over and over again as if playing the role of the contrarian or showing a warm GEM run is a way to stick it to some forum member for expressing their dire for a cold May.

 

This s**t is tiring. I can't put him on Mod Preview because I get messages from a dozen or so people about how unfair I am. I can't ban him because I get it from those people ten fold. For as much as it sucks, people seem to really like Tim playing that annoying as s**t role of someone that serves as some kind of balance to Jim and Jesse. People like his posts.

 

So I wont bother banning him, or mod previewing him. I'll stick to paying the server bill and occasionally dunking on his seasonal dickishness.

 

I really wish more people and different people would post, at least that would make it seem less like it was just Tim frantically posting things to float a narrative.

 

 

It took me a while to figure out the angle Tim was coming at us from. Jim is pretty transparent. I think Tim likes to show us how smart he is. His posts don't really bother me though. He knows I think he is always working some kind of angle or narrative. I think a lot of the posters on here are too though. I think Rob tries to frame a narrative to spark interest in his group, Jesse is naturally negative, but tries really hard to see the bright side so when I get negative he finds it threatening to that illusion. I don't have a real probably with anyone, just different personalities will just naturally come into conflict sometimes. 

[TT-SEA]

A billion times this.

It's not that there is a warm message I am trying hide from with a security blanket, it is that it feels like someone is smacking me over the head over and over and over again as if playing the role of the contrarian or showing a warm GEM run is a way to stick it to some forum member for expressing their dire for a cold May.

 

This s**t is tiring. I can't put him on Mod Preview because I get messages from a dozen or so people about how unfair I am. I can't ban him because I get it from those people ten fold. For as much as it sucks, people seem to really like Tim playing that annoying as s**t role of someone that serves as some kind of balance to Jim and Jesse. People like his posts.

 

So I wont bother banning him, or mod previewing him. I'll stick to paying the server bill and occasionally dunking on his seasonal dickishness.

 

I really wish more people and different people would post, at least that would make it seem less like it was just Tim frantically posting things to float a narrative.

 

 

A billion times and more.

 

I said I listened and I am taking a different approach.   I am not pounding a warm narrative.   I highlighted the potential for cold numerous times over the last few days.   There were some changes this morning in the models... I mentioned that.   Could go back to cold again and I will mention that as well. 

 

I have done nothing wrong since my return.   I am making a conscious effort to improve and post less.   So stop beating me up for nothing.  It serves no purpose.  

 

And side note... many people want to get an idea of what is actually coming and not be spoon-fed fantasy.   So that is probably why many people want me to post.    If I was just constantly pushing a false narrative then there would be no value at all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And Matt has completely disappeared...Perhaps he was DomeBuster Josh all along...

 

Yeah it is kind of weird. Should we be worried?!

[jcmcgaffey]

A billion times this.

It's not that there is a warm message I am trying hide from with a security blanket, it is that it feels like someone is smacking me over the head over and over and over again as if playing the role of the contrarian or showing a warm GEM run is a way to stick it to some forum member for expressing their dire for a cold May.

 

This s**t is tiring. I can't put him on Mod Preview because I get messages from a dozen or so people about how unfair I am. I can't ban him because I get it from those people ten fold. For as much as it sucks, people seem to really like Tim playing that annoying as s**t role of someone that serves as some kind of balance to Jim and Jesse. People like his posts.

 

So I wont bother banning him, or mod previewing him. I'll stick to paying the server bill and occasionally dunking on his seasonal dickishness.

 

I really wish more people and different people would post, at least that would make it seem less like it was just Tim frantically posting things to float a narrative.

I don’t think it is too bad overall but I do feel like it is now this overall battle between a few members that has become the forum. I feel like every time I jump on and post something about current conditions or weather interpretations it gets thrown into the overall battle going on here and people make huge assumptions and assume I am on one side or the other when in reality I didn’t even read the backstory of the battle on previous pages which there is always a previous battle on previous pages. It essentially absorbs most all comments into the vortex of rain/drought cold/warm debates. Not sure if that all makes sense as I think I even confused myself there:)

[luvssnow_spokane]

Two strange takeaways from this morning. The EPS isn’t consistent and Jim is gone! Our inevitable arctic blast must be in jeopardy?!?!

Yep... overall It was never in the believable range it was more an inflated belief/hope it was going to happen. That is often what we read on here, rather than a more balanced approach. I am not going to offer a balanced approach either, because I tend to have more of skeptical approach until it is within three to five days and we have model consistency. I bought in to soon on the last event and I should know better.

[bainbridgekid]

After the last 3 winters it was probably inevitable we would see this level of dud. In fact it was essentially what I predicted. In the back of my mind however, I was hoping we paid our dues last December and January. It happens. Would you rate this one worse than 2014-15 and 2002-03 if it plays out at this pace? It would have to be close. 

This is my fifth Winter since moving to Snohomish County and so far I'd rate it as the second best. Clearly behind last Winter and just ahead of 16-17. 10" of snow in 4 days with almost no melting so I'm definitely not going to complain.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don’t think it is too bad overall but I do feel like it is now this overall battle between a few members that has become the forum. I feel like every time I jump on and post something about current conditions or weather interpretations it gets thrown into the overall battle going on here and people make huge assumptions and assume I am on one side or the other when in reality I didn’t even read the backstory of the battle on previous pages which there is always a previous battle on previous pages. It essentially absorbs most all comments into the vortex of rain/drought cold/warm debates. Not sure if that all makes sense as I think I even confused myself there:)

 

I agree. I went back and read the forum archives from December 2013 a few weeks ago and was shocked at how civil the discourse was. Even reading my own posts/comments it seemed like a completely different person writing them. We've lost a lot of really good members and regulars over the years, obviously new people have joined, but there are a few people on there who I had forgotten about who really contributed some good stuff. It is unfortunate, and I am not trying to say I am any less guilty than anyone else at driving them away.

[BLI snowman]

After the last 3 winters it was probably inevitable we would see this level of dud. In fact it was essentially what I predicted. In the back of my mind however, I was hoping we paid our dues last December and January. It happens. Would you rate this one worse than 2014-15 and 2002-03 if it plays out at this pace? It would have to be close. 

 

Last February took care of that notion, I think. The monkey was placed back on our backs.

 

So yeah, a mostly-regional stinker was definitely inevitable at some point soon. This one has the distinction of featuring a good event in the northern part of the region which places it well outside the realm of the region's absolute worst.

 

For Oregon, I think it has a viable chance of being a top 5-10 warm winter. More comparable to the 2002-03s of the climate record. You could try to split hairs and argue that at least most valley locations have seen flakes, but that's a pretty small bar to clear.

[MossMan]

This is my fifth Winter since moving to Snohomish County and so far I'd rate it as the second best. Clearly behind last Winter and just ahead of 16-17. 10" of snow in 4 days with almost no melting so I'm definitely not going to complain.

It was a fantastic week!

[Jesse]

It took me a while to figure out the angle Tim was coming at us from. Jim is pretty transparent. I think Tim likes to show us how smart he is. His posts don't really bother me though. He knows I think he is always working some kind of angle or narrative. I think a lot of the posters on here are too though. I think Rob tries to frame a narrative to spark interest in his group, Jesse is naturally negative, but tries really hard to see the bright side so when I get negative he finds it threatening to that illusion. I don't have a real probably with anyone, just different personalities will just naturally come into conflict sometimes.

 

You are way off for me. I think you know that. Just digging for a reaction like usual.

[BLI snowman]

From a regional perspective we should use another winter as an anal-log. Maybe 2002-2003? One of the winters that didn't snow at PDX but was decent for the mountains.

 

That one wasn't very good for the mountains, aside from a last minute attempt in March and April.

[Jesse]

Nice slug of rain moving into the Portland metro.

[Jesse]

That one wasn't very good for the mountains, aside from a last minute attempt in March and April.

The decent situation for mountain snowpack, which looks to more or less continue, kind of separates this one from the major duds. And of course it’s only late January, so regardless of what happens we don’t have this winter’s full narrative just yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is my fifth Winter since moving to Snohomish County and so far I'd rate it as the second best. Clearly behind last Winter and just ahead of 16-17. 10" of snow in 4 days with almost no melting so I'm definitely not going to complain.

 

Yeah Snohomish County north is definitely a different animal due to the event two weeks ago. For my backyard at this point it is probably on pace to be the 2nd worst out of 9 winters. Definitely better than 2014-15 which only had 3.5" of snow, But still lagging behind 2015-16. Even though we have passed that year in total snowfall we had two nice cold snaps, one in late November and one from just before Christmas into early January which were pretty decent. 

 

I had fairly low expectations for the recent event and snow-wise they were exceeded. So I'm not necessarily happy with how this winter turned out, but it could have been worse IMBY. 

 

2016-17 was about as good a winter as I could hope for. It was excellent from December-the first week of March. We had snow on the ground pretty much the whole time. A  good mix of cold and snow. Could have been colder, could have been snowier, but overall a great combo of both. 

[MossMan]

Dark.

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/seattle-status-check-still-rainy-still-havent-had-a-sunny-day-in-nearly-2-months

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last February took care of that notion, I think. The monkey was placed back on our backs.

 

So yeah, a mostly-regional stinker was definitely inevitable at some point soon. This one has the distinction of featuring a good event in the northern part of the region which places it well outside the realm of the region's absolute worst.

 

For Oregon, I think it has a viable chance of being a top 5-10 warm winter. More comparable to the 2002-03s of the climate record. You could try to split hairs and argue that at least most valley locations have seen flakes, but that's a pretty small bar to clear.

 

I was really on board with the idea this would be a solid winter, until I started looking at it more from the positive ENSO perspective and less as just straight up neutral. Also the Oregon Department of Agriculture predicting a warmer winter really got me thinking as they usually operate with a bit of a cold bias in their long term forecasting. So I started taking into account some of their analogs (1969-70, 1977-78, 2004-05). Once I started viewing it through those lenses it because pretty obvious where we could be heading. I did think January would be a little cooler than this however, so you could say I whiffed a bit there. 

[TT-SEA]

Hmm... interesting.

 

I do desire a little more clarification on whether or not the weather has been quite whet lately before I inform my opinion there.

 

Lots of people have posted about the unusually persistent rain and cloudiness.   

 

Its actually happening... and worth mentioning.   The SEA NWS twitter feed is just endless reporting on the unusual nature of our recent wet weather.

[BLI snowman]

The decent situation for mountain snowpack, which looks to more or less continue, kind of separates this one from the major duds. And of course it’s only late January, so regardless of what happens we don’t have this winter’s full narrative just yet.

 

The persistent sort of longwave ridging that would have led to really poor totals in the mountains has been absent since November. Of course that scenario would have led to some colder temps in the lowlands, so it's kind of a pick your poison if you're trying to judge the winter.

[Anti Marine Layer]

The word to describe this winter in the western Portland metro is most certainly “boring”. No windstorms, no heavy rain, no cold, no snow besides a tiny amount of snow on 11/30 that didn’t stick.

Not as boring as California or this board would have no members.

[BLI snowman]

I was really on board with the idea this would be a solid winter, until I started looking at it more from the positive ENSO perspective and less as just straight up neutral. Also the Oregon Department of Agriculture predicting a warmer winter really got me thinking as they usually operate with a bit of a cold bias in their long term forecasting. So I started taking into account some of their analogs (1969-70, 1977-78, 2004-05). Once I started viewing it through those lenses it because pretty obvious where we could be heading. I did think January would be a little cooler than this however, so you could say I whiffed a bit there. 

 

 

I come back to the idea that it's really been a pretty terrible winter almost everywhere, so we're hardly alone in our misery. Things are just so skewed warm right now globally, much more so than with our 20th century duds.

 

It's gotten so bad in Mother Russia that the weenies there are blaming the U.S. for it 

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-lawmaker-blames-climate-weapon-warm-winter-1482371

[BLI snowman]

Lots of people have posted about the unusually persistent rain and cloudiness.   

 

Its actually happening... and worth mentioning.   The SEA NWS twitter feed is just endless reporting on the unusual nature of our recent wet weather.

 

You should probably fight them to see who can post the most about it.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's raining. Rain makes things wet, soppy, and soggy. The sky is gray due to the rain. The grass is green, so very green. That's about it from over here. I suppose I try to spark interest in the the forum. I could see that. I certainly try to do that in my facebook weather group, but it's not like it takes any effort to do so. I dunno. I never think about that. When the weather is boring it's a bit more difficult to do so of course. Going back 5+ years ago in this forum I don't think my posting style or what I post has changed much if at all. My only issue is I'm still a bit too defensive at times due to what I've dealt in my life. That's something I don't want to be. I don't have any narratives on this forum. Not a single one. I tend to ignore a lot of the quirks from specific members as it does not bother me, and others I enjoy. I know exactly how Tim and Jim are going to be every single Fall and Winter. They are both rather predictable, but nah it doesn't bother me. They are both polarizing figures here and that's okay. We all want cold and snow, but we have to be realistic even when our enthusiasm and hopes get the best of us. I hope February we just don't lose a great deal of our snow pack due to warm rains.

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 52 minutes

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 7 minutes

[TT-SEA]

You should probably fight them to see who can post the most about it.

 

They are winning... hands down.   Its the dominant weather story up here for the last couple months though.    It will be discussed and stats will be posted.   Sorry.

[Timmy Supercell]

I did have a pretty impressive 7-day snowfall middle of this month. Matching some of my snowiest periods I have experienced in the last decade.

Of course this is only comparing other 1-2 week snowfalls that happened, obviously I haven't had any singular storms quite as massive as 2017. 

[bainbridgekid]

Other than the snowy days a couple weeks ago, I've only had only had one freeze since December 1st. Pretty incredible really.

 

Some Winters we have tons of freezing nights and very little snow, so at least we made the most of the small amount of cold weather we had here.

[ItBurnsOregon]

That is some impressive rain coming onshore. Doubt much makes it over here. Up to 48.6.

[Omegaraptor]

 

On a positive note most of the West is doing pretty decent with mountain snowpack. 

[Jesse]

I come back to the idea that it's really been a pretty terrible winter almost everywhere, so we're hardly alone in our misery. Things are just so skewed warm right now globally, much more so than with our 20th century duds.

 

It's gotten so bad in Mother Russia that the weenies there are blaming the U.S. for it 

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-lawmaker-blames-climate-weapon-warm-winter-1482371

Low solar doing its thing.

[Jesse]

At least the 12z Euro looks pretty good for mountain snow the next 10 days.

 

[BLI snowman]

Screen Shot 2020-01-27 at 1.44.05 PM.png

 

On a positive note most of the West is doing pretty decent with mountain snowpack. 

 

I do think they added that 0% there just to troll Washington County.

[TT-SEA]

Another false narrative here... the new ECMWF weeklies are pretty chilly for February into early March. Nothing super cold... but certainly not warm either.

[BLI snowman]

Low solar doing its thing.

 

Well....it does correlate to blockier winters, if you take away all the non-blocky ones and then fail to account for the other half of the equation.

 

And with hindsight that cold in October was definitely a bad omen this go around. Usually seems to be a sign that we're either going to see something amazing or we're going to see something horrid. No in between.

[Omegaraptor]

I do think they added that 0% there just to troll Washington County.

 

The border between that 0% zone and the Willamette basin seems to be right on the Tillamook/Washington county line. Not that Oregon Coast Range snowpack means much anyway.

[BLI snowman]

Another false narrative here... the new ECMWF weeklies are pretty chilly for February into early March. Nothing super cold... but certainly not warm either.

 

February into early March 2003 wasn't warm.

[TT-SEA]

February into early March 2003 wasn't warm.

Thrilling.

[Gradient Keeper]

At least the 12z Euro looks pretty good for mountain snow the next 10 days.

 

74F0EDBF-41CA-492C-9EFB-27762E317228.png

If we can manage this, that would be huge. I would be perfectly happy with that.

[bainbridgekid]

18z digs the trough in significantly quicker Saturday evening. About 12 hours sooner and further South than previous runs.

 

 

 

[bainbridgekid]

Interesting looking vort max pops up just West of Vancouver Island as well. Will be interesting to see if that sets off some more snow shower / convergence zone activity Sunday night as that slides SE.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Nice looking convergence zone for King/Snohomish County Sunday evening/night on the 18z.