1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL

[Hawkeye]

looks like very light rain on the SW side.  Also raining in North Liberty.  Maybe the GFS was on to something....

 

It is now rain with a bit of sleet here as well.

[gimmesnow]

Oh no not the GFS, worst case scenario here, mostly rain.

[Clinton]

12Z Euro

[Tony]

12Z Euro

At least the Euro is still on board with measureable snow and not backing down. Will see what the actual outcome is once it's all said and done.

 

Nice LE signal still showing up on this side of the lake.

Edited January 22, 2020 by Tony

[Hawkeye]

We are trying to flip over to snow now.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Measured 2.5" of snow about 11am. Also some of the heaviest, wettest snow I've shoveled in a long time. Just a sloppy mess everywhere. On the bright side, the ice rink that was my driveway is in much better condition with all the ice still having melted despite being under the snow that I had to scoop.

[bud2380]

Report of 5" in Wabasha, MN

[Hawkeye]

Precip is having trouble staying snow here.

[Stormy]

Currently it's 31° with light ZR/sleet mix here. I don't really anticipate nearly as much snow as models are showing unless much of the precip falls at night. Or if there is decent snow then a good share of it could melt as it falls if temps rise above freezing.

[Clinton]

12z EPS mean and control

 

[bud2380]

Local airports are running between 29 and 31 degrees, yet we are seeing what looks like plain rain here.  Must be icing over a bit at those temps, but doesn't seem to be too slick yet.  

[Clinton]

Light snow falling, first flakes of the day.

[Stormhunter87]

This snow really reminds me of the snow I used to see on the east coast. Super wet and heavy. I have enjoyed it so far but man there is a ton of compacting. I would guess that the totals would be higher with out it.

[OKwx2k4]

Barely holding that freezing line. By a thread....

Light mixed precip right now.

EURO tries to tease me with a 3 incher at my elevation here. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[Hawkeye]

In two hours I still haven't received anything more than brief heavy flurries.

[Stacsh]

Decent write up from Grand Rapids, MI about the system.  

 

"LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH TOTALS  
FROM THE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACTIVITY PROBABLY 1"-2" WHERE SNOW IS  
PERSISTENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR/WEST OF US 131). THAT SEEMS REASONABLE  
GIVEN WE SHOULD AVOID MOST, OR ALL, POSITIVE ENERGY ALOFT (WARM  
LAYER). STILL, ANY SUBTLE WOBBLES TO THE THERMAL PROFILE COULD MELT  
THE SNOWFLAKES AND TURN SURFACE PRECIP TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  
GIVEN THE HIGH DGZ AND THE DEPTH OF THE SUPERCOOLED CLOUD LAYER,  
RIMING OF THE SNOWFLAKES IS LIKELY, LIMITING ACCUMULATION RATES.  
HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH 32F-35F. TRAVEL IMPACTS LOOK  
LESS LIKELY FOR THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE GIVEN THE MARGINAL  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EFFECTIVENESS OF SALT.  
 
WE'RE STILL FACING THE SAME DILEMMA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH  
P-TYPE AND ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES  
ALOFT FRIDAY MORNING AND SURFACE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING, WE  
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OCCUR WITH  
LOCALLY SLICK ROADS POSSIBLE. BORDERLINE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL  
PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO TRAVELERS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, VERY LOW SNOW  
TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED, POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE  
5:1-8:1 RANGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK FOR MANY  
LOCATIONS, LIKELY 1"-2". HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A PLAUSIBLE  
SCENARIO THAT COULD UNFOLD WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LOCALLY SEVERAL  
INCHES MORE SNOW THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE DGZ DOES LOWER A BIT  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT PRESENT THROUGH A  
DEEPLY SATURATED LAYER. IF TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT GET ABOVE 0C  
FRIDAY NIGHT, SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE IN SPITE  
OF RIMING/LOW SLRS. SOME IMPACTS TO TRAVEL SATURDAY MORNING COULD  
RESULT IF THIS LOWER PROBABILITY SCENARIO MATERIALIZES. LINGERING  
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH LIGHT FREEZING  
DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIMITED IMPACTS."

[Iowawx]

This seems like a big bust here so far. It's almost like it's raining outside, and I have only seen a few flurries. The Euro has 7 inches of snow here. There is no way that is going to happen here.

[East Dubzz]

This seems like a big bust here so far. It's almost like it's raining outside, and I have only seen a few flurries. The Euro has 7 inches of snow here. There is no way that is going to happen here.

 

A bit early to be calling anything a bust yet, especially when today / tonight's snowfall isn't expected to be all that much to begin with. 

[Hawkeye]

I am finally seeing real snow here.

[BMT]

A bit early to be calling anything a bust yet, especially when today / tonight's snowfall isn't expected to be all that much to begin with. 

Agreed -  nws didn't really have it starting until 2pm today, and it starting as a mix. (CR anyway)  Seems about what i expected so far.  

[Yerf]

6AM Friday per Euro

[OmahaSnowFan]

Another WWA issued for tonight into tomorrow for up to 2 more inches of snow. Just enough to replace the stuff from last night/this morning that will melt/compact. Oh well, at least it's snowing.

I'll be honest, minus the melting snow right away, this is the type of winter weather I enjoy. Not bitterly cold and snowy. If it was about 5-8 degrees colder (24-28 degrees) this would be perfect for me   

[Hawkeye]

I'm currently getting the best snow rate so far.

[Hawkeye]

DVN has lowered amounts

 

[Hawkeye]

The precip moved into the area about four hours ago.  I've picked up 0.4" of snow.

[St Paul Storm]

Plain rain here. Torching at 36. With high dew points the snow melt is impressive. Down to 8” otg. Actually feels good outside. I don’t buy the 1-3” of snow most models are showing. Slim chance at best.

[james1976]

I dont understand. The WWA ends at 6pm but the snow is just starting to stick on roads and looks to continue tonight. Weird

[james1976]

Hard to measure cuz the snow is sticking on certain areas and not others. Goin with 0.6" so far

[Hawkeye]

Hard to measure cuz the snow is sticking on certain areas and not others. Goin with 0.6" so far

 

Measure where it's sticking.

[Niko]

Tricky forecast for mby. Saturday into Saturday nite I could pick up an inch or 2.

[Stormy]

A decent band of snow around here for awhile, but still maybe just 1/2" accumulated so far. Not as heavy as previous 4" snowfall I had with better visibility also. Have good flake size. I've noticed over the years that with larger flakes the visibility isn't as low as when they are smaller like my previous snow. I recall someone on here who mentioned the opposite, but that's ok.

[Niko]

[bud2380]

I had to run to Iowa city tonight. Snow is coming down pretty good here.

[Hawkeye]

0.9" here now.

 

The temperature rose to about 30º this afternoon, and it's down to 29º now, so the surface temp actually underperformed a bit.  I think most models had us near 32º.

[bud2380]

My car said 28° in Iowa city as well. Much cooler than forecasted. Should help accumulations

[Clinton]

18z Euro 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Looks like the Omaha airport reported 2.9" of snow, but had .51" liquid equivalent. That's a 5.7:1 ratio. No wonder the snow felt like a lead weight scooping it this morning!

[St Paul Storm]

Some decent snow falling. Temp at 32F.

[Hawkeye]

18z Euro 

 

That's a pretty nice-looking snow map.  It's too bad we're unlikely to come close to those numbers.  I'd be happy with 4".

[Clinton]

That's a pretty nice-looking snow map.  It's too bad we're unlikely to come close to those numbers.  I'd be happy with 4".

Ya the model is running to cold down here, I wasn't sure about everyone else.  I'm expecting 2 or 3 inches which is about 1.5 less than what this shows.