Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully the EPS is right with the rebound to normalish temps next week after the dip.   Yes... I am big fan of mid 70s in the summer.   I apologize for such strange preferences.  

Summer starts (or, rather, should start) in early July.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Anyone know what the snow levels bottom out at in the north cascades this weekend? 

Looks like around 4500'.

Quote

WAZ567-151100-
Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-
Including the cities of Marblemount and Concrete
204 PM PDT Wed Jun 14 2023

.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Freezing level near 8500 feet.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Freezing level near 9500 feet.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming
mostly cloudy. Freezing level near 11500 feet.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of rain and snow in the
afternoon. Snow level near 9500 feet.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow in the evening,
then mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely after midnight. Snow
level near 8500 feet. Rainfall amounts a tenth to a quarter of an
inch possible.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Snow
level near 6500 feet.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow in
the evening, then mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely after
midnight. Snow level near 6000 feet decreasing to 5000 feet after
midnight.
.SUNDAY...Rain and snow. Snow level near 4500 feet.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely in the
evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow after
midnight. Snow level near 5000 feet.
.JUNETEENTH...Rain and snow. Snow level near 5000 feet.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely in the
evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow after
midnight. Snow level near 6000 feet.
.TUESDAY...Rain and snow likely. Snow level near 6000 feet.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely in the
evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow after
midnight. Snow level near 6500 feet.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely. Snow level
near 7000 feet.

&&
                  TEMPERATURE         /       PRECIPITATION

Mount Baker       39   56   44   54  /  10             30

$$

 

[MossMan]

This evenings evening shot! 
64/48 on the day. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... that is incorrect.     Average high next week at SEA is around 72 or 73.    So mid 70s is definitely more normal than a high of 61.     Normal high temps are great here in the summer.    Lots of mid to upper 70s.

Average high at SeaTac on 6/14 is 70.6°F. 64°F would be 6.6°F below average. 78°F would be 7.4°F above average.

Those upper 70s are no closer to “normal” than the low/mid 60s associated with the trough.

[Cloud]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Average high at SeaTac on 6/14 is 70.6°F. 64°F would be 6.6°F below average. 78°F would be 7.4°F above average.

Those upper 70s are no closer to “normal” than the low/mid 60s associated with the trough.

This is just false. You’re referencing 6/14 while he referenced next week, 6/18 onward. You can’t just pick a reference date for your average (6/14) then pick the highest temp day next week to make your argument valid. 
 

Average highs next week around here will be in the 72-73 range, a 61 on 6/18 vs a 78 on 6/24. Those mid-70s are a lot closer to average than the low 60s man. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

This is just false. You’re referencing 6/14 while he referenced next week, 6/18 onward. You can’t just pick a reference date for your average (6/14) then pick the highest temp day next week to make your argument valid. 
 

Average highs next week around here will be in the 72-73 range, a 61 on 6/18 vs a 78 on 6/24. Those mid-70s are a lot closer to average than the low 60s man. 

Check your math again. SeaTac avg high increases from precisely 70.6°F to 71.3°F by 6/18, not “72 or 73” (whatever that means).

Mid-60s on the 14th is no further removed from average than upper 70s on the 18th. Simple stuff.

[Phil]

And the point is upper 70s at this time of year is no more “normalish” than mid-60s. Splitting hairs over a few tenths of a degree won’t change that.

Dense as a brick.

[Phil]

C3S mean for July. Would be a coast-to-coast GODSEND.

Please verify.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Check your math again. SeaTac avg high increases from precisely 70.6°F to 71.3°F by 6/18, not “72 or 73” (whatever that means).

Mid-60s on the 14th is no further removed from average than upper 70s on the 18th. Simple stuff.

Good Lord.

You stretching the numbers.    I originally said mid 70s and you said low 60s.   And we were talking about later next week and beyond on the EPS chart (after 6/22).   Mid 70s is way closer to normal than 61 (the lowest high temp on that chart). 

And why are we even having this discussion?   Because you can't accept that I was looking forward to mid-70s at the end of June?  You have to tell me that is so far from normal.   I assure you it is not.  

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord.

You stretching the numbers.    I originally said mid 70s and you said low 60s.   And we were talking about later next week and beyond on the EPS chart (after 6/22).   Mid 70s is way closer to normal than 61 (the lowest high temp on that chart). 

And why are we even having this discussion?   Because you can't accept that I was looking forward to mid-70s at the end of June?  You have to tell me that is so far from normal.   I assure you it is not.  

Upper 70s. Point is mid-60s is just as “normal”. That’s all I was saying.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a very pleasant 68/52 spread yesterday. Morning clouds and a few spots of drizzle followed by a partly cloudy and breezy afternoon. 

Calm and on the cool side this morning with a low of 46 so far.

[GobBluth]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

C3S mean for July. Would be a coast-to-coast GODSEND.

Please verify.

When's the last time the continent had a July like that?

[TT-SEA]

Looks like that departing ULL has brought down some Canadian smoke on the backside over eastern WA this morning.

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 44 this morning definitely on the chilly side for mid June. Have been enjoying the cooler weather the past couple days and looking forward to the rain this weekend. The grass looks even more dead than it did before we picked up 0.26” of rain last week. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, GobBluth said:

When's the last time the continent had a July like that?

A long time. Highly doubt that will verify, but with the 4CH suppressed this year, I’m optimistic for a cooler summer overall across the lower-48, especially the Southwest and Intermountain states.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like that departing ULL has brought down some Canadian smoke on the backside over eastern WA this morning.

Haze has been constant here for over a week now, keeps streaming out of Canada like a river.

Looking out the window you’d think it was August, vibing full-on HHH (haze, heat, humidity) and trees dropping leaves.

But step outside and its bone dry and relatively cool. Really fools the mind. Never experienced a pattern like this before.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

A long time. Highly doubt that will verify, but with the 4CH suppressed this year, I’m optimistic for a cooler summer overall across the lower-48, especially the Southwest and Intermountain states.

It's been an amazing warm season here so far...but still early.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's been an amazing warm season here so far...but still early.

Likewise. Easily the most “comfortable” start to summer I can remember in my lifetime. What’s strange is almost all “cool” patterns here in JJA are fairly wet/stormy, but this year it’s historically dry.

In fact I had to go back to the 19th/early 20th century to find conditions similar to this. Love this resource from NCDC, has observations back to the 1870s at some stations.

All 50 states are included.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html?_page=2&state=MD&foreign=false&stationID=183855&_target3=Next+>

[Phil]

Bizarre VP200 signal on the 00z EPS. MJO signal is gone, for all intents and purposes.

Instead looks like a propagating wave-2/interference signature, which could manifest under a coherent low pass with active MJO/CCKW component, but the former isn’t evident here.

Have to view the EPS with some degree of skepticism for now, in my opinion. If this comes to fruition, I’ll be lol’ing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure if it came up on here, but a lot of wildfires across Eastern Oregon, even into the Gorge. Including a fire threatening our beautiful Oregon Veterans Home. 

https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/2023/06/fire-threatens-oregon-veterans-home-in-the-dalles.html

https://www.oregonlive.com/wildfires/2023/06/oregon-gov-tina-kotek-deploys-state-resources-firefighters-to-2-umatilla-county-wildfires.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

"Controversial Weather Scientist." 

https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2023/06/controversial-weather-scientist-says-pacific-northwest-is-in-for-drought-busting-weekend.html

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Bizarre VP200 signal on the 00z EPS. MJO signal is gone, for all intents and purposes.

Instead looks like a propagating wave-2/interference signature, which could manifest under a coherent low pass with active MJO/CCKW component, but the former isn’t evident here.

Have to view the EPS with some degree of skepticism for now, in my opinion. If this comes to fruition, I’ll be lol’ing.

Literally no idea what any of this means.  Or what shows the MJO signal is gone there.   All I see is some pastel colors. 

[MossMan]

Crappy app is not excited about much in the way of rainfall. 

[Timmy Supercell]

47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

"Controversial Weather Scientist." 

https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2023/06/controversial-weather-scientist-says-pacific-northwest-is-in-for-drought-busting-weekend.html

I knew it was gonna be Cliff without reading that. 

[Omegaraptor]

49 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

"Controversial Weather Scientist." 

https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2023/06/controversial-weather-scientist-says-pacific-northwest-is-in-for-drought-busting-weekend.html

It is not a bad trough at all for mid/late June but it’s also kind of a drop in the bucket compared to the near constant warmth (some of it record warmth) since late April.

[Slushy Inch]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Upper 70s. Point is mid-60s is just as “normal”. That’s all I was saying.

My forecast for Sunday is 55 degrees. In June! And upper 70s is more normal then mid 60s.

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

"Controversial Weather Scientist." 

https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2023/06/controversial-weather-scientist-says-pacific-northwest-is-in-for-drought-busting-weekend.html

Cliff Mass is as controversial as Chris Christy is skinny.

[Cold Snap]

52 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

My forecast for Sunday is 55 degrees. In June!

53 for me!

[Slushy Inch]

56 minutes ago, Phil said:

Cliff Mass is as controversial as Chris Christy is skinny.

He tries to be 

[Reg]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Likewise. Easily the most “comfortable” start to summer I can remember in my lifetime. What’s strange is almost all “cool” patterns here in JJA are fairly wet/stormy, but this year it’s historically dry.

In fact I had to go back to the 19th/early 20th century to find conditions similar to this. Love this resource from NCDC, has observations back to the 1870s at some stations.

All 50 states are included.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html?_page=2&state=MD&foreign=false&stationID=183855&_target3=Next+>

Last time I remember such a mild start to summer was 2003 (maybe 2005 depending on who you ask). But in both years, we in Southern California saw increased convective events and monsoons later in the summer. Not sure how it played out for all you folks up north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Reg said:

Last time I remember such a mild start to summer was 2003 (maybe 2005 depending on who you ask). But in both years, we in Southern California saw increased convective events and monsoons later in the summer. Not sure how it played out for all you folks up north.

Both those summers were aight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Blessings GALORE coming up. 

[LowerGarfield]

On 6/14/2023 at 3:59 PM, RentonHill said:

This would be $$$

Well we are almost halfway to Christmas or Channukah.

This would be incredible.

[LowerGarfield]

Ugh smoke is starting to come back here. It's not super smelly and I don't have a headache but my eyes are starting to burn from it. It's been a nice cool day or two though.

[TacomaWx]

72/44 so far today pretty nice. 

[Phil]

FWIW the ECMWF had 72°F projected for today at SeaTac, while the GFS had 75°F.

As of 5pm the high is 71°F. So ECMWF is closer again. Meanwhile the GFS was the worst of all the global models.

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

FWIW the ECMWF had 72°F projected for today at SeaTac, while the GFS had 75°F.

As of 5pm the high is 71°F. So ECMWF is closer again. Meanwhile the GFS was the worst of all the global models.

High was 72 at SEA.    74 out here today.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

Ugh smoke is starting to come back here. It's not super smelly and I don't have a headache but my eyes are starting to burn from it. It's been a nice cool day or two though.

yeah noticed it flying back in from Sacramento this evening.  funny how CA has the clean air this summer.

[TT-SEA]

Lined up for my par putt on hole 5 at Mt Si golf course.   This is a public course.  $26 for twilight.   Save your 1% BS.

Side note... made it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lined up for my par putt on hole 5 at Mt Si golf course.   This is a public course.  $26 for twilight.   Save your 1% BS.

Side note... made it.

Beautiful snap. Nice typically snowless Mt Si in the background. Truly a banana belt of pleasure.