BLI snowman Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Rain basically a non event today. Only 0.03". Could definitely use a good soaker or two. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 I think we get clipped by that trough next weekend. Just my guess.Followed by a war mup? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Rain basically a non event today. Only 0.03". Could definitely use a good soaker or two.Indeed. Sometimes these wrap around bands can overperform but that wasn’t the case today. Just a 3-4 hours of light rain in the afternoon/early evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Followed by a war mup?I’d check with Dewey on that. He’s the expert. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Just .10” or so even for the south valley. At least they scored a coolish day down there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 It was a nice day for a walk down the main road. Currently 38 degrees. .09” on the day. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 I’d check with Dewey on that. He’s the expert.Approved. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Fell asleep. Nice ECMWF run. No rain until day 10... and nice next weekend. Still think the trough will end up much farther west though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Government Camp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Government Camp GovernmentCamp_pid624 (1).jpgLooks like it’s dark there too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Looks like it’s dark there too.Finally a full regional event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Looks like we will be waiting until Saturday or possibly later for rain. Haven’t had any since 3/30....so we’re looking at at least a 12 day dry streak. Rainfall has come in streaks recently...had no rain from 3/13-3/23.....then had rain every day from 3/23-3/30 and no rainfall since...so 6 days without rain on this current streak. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 44 and cloudy this morning...11 degrees warmer than yesterday mornings low. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Looks like we will be waiting until Saturday or possibly later for rain. Haven’t had any since 3/30....so we’re looking at at least a 12 day dry streak. Rainfall has come in streaks recently...had no rain from 3/13-3/23.....then had rain every day from 3/23-3/30 and no rainfall since...so 6 days without rain on this current streak. Pretty decent rain event on the 12Z GFS for next Saturday... as moisture gets caught up in NW flow. But the GFS looks wildly different for the weekend and early next week than previous runs and certainly very different than the cold solution that was shown yesterday morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 No cold air at all on the GFS ensembles. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Here was the 12Z GFS yesterday morning... with that very cold trough: And the new 12Z run for the same time: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 That GOA ridge is stuck stuckitty stuck, as has been the case for much of the last 12 months. That means lots and lots of troughing over the West Coast until the 4 Corners High builds by late June or early July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 That GOA ridge is stuck stuckitty stuck, as has been the case for much of the last 12 months. That means lots and lots of troughing over the West Coast until the 4 Corners High builds by late June or early July. The west coast warm finger has dominated since about June 2013. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Pretty decent rain event on the 12Z GFS for next Saturday... as moisture gets caught up in NW flow. But the GFS looks wildly different for the weekend and early next week than previous runs and certainly very different than the cold solution that was shown yesterday morning. We will see....probably will end up with some rainfall at some point next weekend or early next week. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 No cold air at all on the GFS ensembles.Looks cold to Jim. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 We will see....probably will end up with some rainfall at some point next weekend or early next week. Definitely seems likely for next weekend... with NW flow though so that tends to leave your area shadowed while bringing decent rain to the usual areas to the north and east of Seattle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 I thought next weekend might actually be looking wet. Looks like maybe a few hours of drizzle. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Models look like May 2018. Jesse is going to freak when he wakes up. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 I thought next weekend might actually be looking wet. Looks like maybe a few hours of drizzle. Meanwhile... to the north and east of Seattle we get healthy amounts of rain in NW flow. Maybe a couple inches worth. The rich just get richer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Meanwhile... to the north and east of Seattle we get healthy amounts of rain in NW flow. Maybe a couple inches worth. The rich just get richer. If you recall down here we had TONS of rain in early April last year. Ended up being pretty meaningless as we started torching by mid month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Models look like May 2018. Jesse is going to freak when he wakes up. The GFS has been struggling mightily lately... which should be good news except yesterday he said it was the consistent model. <_> Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 How’d the eps look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 How’d the eps look Might be a return to winter for the Midwest and NE. 5-10 day period... 10-15 day period... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 00Z GEM was quite troughy for next weekend... but the 12Z run shifted east. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 If you recall down here we had TONS of rain in early April last year. Ended up being pretty meaningless as we started torching by mid month. the good news I guess is that even with how hot and dry it was down there the fire season was pretty low compared to previous years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Ensemble improvement, Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Got some of the patio furniture out this morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 Ensemble improvement, See, that little meltdown earlier was for nothing. We got up early to do a couple hour walk around Lacamas and missed the whole thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 One positive think to think about Andrew is the fact that we are in a building Niña. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 12Z ECMWF does not show any rain at all for Saturday... consistent with the 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 The 12Z ECMWF is actually warm and sunny for all of next weekend. A far cry from the cold scenarios the GFS was showing for the last couple days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 This weekend has been dry and sunny up north. The whole work week looks dry and sunny. I fail to understand the frantic obsession with next weekend and avoiding a very slight chance of needed rainfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 This weekend has been dry and sunny up north. The whole work week looks dry and sunny. I fail to understand the frantic obsession with next weekend and avoiding a very slight chance of needed rainfall.Exaggeration. First of all we don't need rain up here. And secondly... weekends are still meaningful and a nice weekend is always appreciated. Particularly at this time of year. Very few people have an obsession with getting more rain and cold right now. I understand it's very important to you though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 5, 2020 Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 I guess one thing that’s flown under the radar is that the midweek airmass has been gradually trending a little less impressive, in terms of warmth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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