August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

YES!!!! More red over Oregon!!! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And he doesn’t look very happy about it. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil could get more into the drivers than me, but there are clearly local, short term climate trends that are not directly a result of more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

For example: the lackluster PNW winters 1998-2006. The run of cold/snowy late winters lately.

Here in Denver, 12 of the last 14 Februaries have run colder than the long term average. Meanwhile, prior to this summer we saw 7 consecutive well above normal Julys.

I don't need the difference between climate change and natural variability explained to me. I have a PhD in atmospheric science. It takes 10 seconds of looking at any time series plot of temperature or precipitation in this region to see the natural variability superimposed on top of the climate signal and it takes one line of code to detrend the climate signal. 

What you're describing is natural variability. 

Amplification of that variability as a result of climate change is maybe what we're talking about here. Polar amplification is obvious. Amplification of PNW summer warmth is also clearly happening and is predicted both theoretically and by climate models. 

Based on natural variability alone, the last several winters should have been much colder and snowier in the PNW than they actually were. 

 

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Lytton is up to 105 at 2pm.  A new Provincial record for August could be in the works.  

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like some lightning coming into the central cascades in Oregon.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I don't need the difference between climate change and natural variability explained to me. I have a PhD in atmospheric science. It takes 10 seconds of looking at any time series plot of temperature or precipitation in this region to see the natural variability superimposed on top of the climate signal and it takes one line of code to detrend the climate signal. 

What you're describing is natural variability. 

Amplification of that variability as a result of climate change is maybe what we're talking about here. Polar amplification is obvious. Amplification of PNW summer warmth is also clearly happening and is predicted both theoretically and by climate models. 

Based on natural variability alone, the last several winters should have been much colder and snowier in the PNW than they actually were.

Before the recent warming trend, the hottest temperature recorded in Portland was 106°F in 1956. June 2021 bested that by a full 10°F.

A comparable besting of the historical lowest temperature would feature a lows of -13°F in Portland and around -20°F in Eugene, and those readings would happen around November 21st (November is one month off from the coldest month, like June is from the warmest month). Just to give an idea of how biased towards warm extremes things currently are.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

82.9°F IMBY. Was running about +2 over yesterday for a while, but breezes have kicked in and knocked it down a notch.

Looks like another 90-burger avoided.

[Cold Snap]

Up to 92 IMBY.

[TT-SEA]

A little warmer out here today... currently 97.

But HQM is running -9 compared to yesterday and is only at 75.

Thermal trough is shifting inland.   Should help improve the smoke down south.  Web cams around Eugene look a little better than it did this morning.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Before the recent warming trend, the hottest temperature recorded in Portland was 106°F in 1956. June 2021 bested that by a full 10°F.

A comparable besting of the historical lowest temperature would feature a lows of -13°F in Portland and around -20°F in Eugene, and those readings would happen around November 21st (November is one month off from the coldest month, like June is from the warmest month). Just to give an idea of how biased towards warm extremes things currently are.

107, actually.

But beating that twice in three years probably can't be explained away by anything other than the climate changing.

[YahRaEl]

96° in Spanaway and 91° Eastside Tacoma 

[Gradient Keeper]

Temperature round-up / 24hr Temp Change

8/15/23 2:38 PM

 

- 2 PM

[Oregon Coast]
Astoria: 77, -16
Tillamook: 82, -13
Newport: 70, -- no change
Florence: 75, +2
North Bend: 74, -3
Brookings: 67, -2

 

[PDX-Vancouver Metro, Southwest Washington, Northern Willamette Valley]
Portland: 97, -5
Troutdale: 97, -7
Vancouver: 96, -6
Kelso: 97, unable to retrieve data
Scappoose: 95, -9
Hillsboro: 96, -8
McMinnville: 95, -6
Aurora: 95, -6

 

[Central/Southern Willamette Valley, Southern Oregon]
Salem: 96, -4
Corvallis: 97, -1
Eugene: 100, +3
Roseburg: 102, +1
Grants Pass: 100, -2
Medford: 101, -3
Klamath Falls: 91, -2

[the_convergence_zone]

92 now here in West Seattle, topping the 91 from yesterday. Lighter wind today is resulting in less of a marine influence. 

[YahRaEl]

Would be nice to be at Ruston Way Waterfront now much cooler there

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It's still AGW, it's just that the AGW effects are nonlinear. The PNW summer warming is nothing compared to the summer warming at high latitudes. Overall the PNW is warming less than the global mean (over land). 

 

28 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I don't need the difference between climate change and natural variability explained to me. I have a PhD in atmospheric science. It takes 10 seconds of looking at any time series plot of temperature or precipitation in this region to see the natural variability superimposed on top of the climate signal and it takes one line of code to detrend the climate signal. 

What you're describing is natural variability. 

Amplification of that variability as a result of climate change is maybe what we're talking about here. Polar amplification is obvious. Amplification of PNW summer warmth is also clearly happening and is predicted both theoretically and by climate models. 

Based on natural variability alone, the last several winters should have been much colder and snowier in the PNW than they actually were. 

Your first post didn't acknowledge natural variability at all...

Do you mind pointing me towards studies from 10+ years ago that predicted greater amplification of PNW summer warmth compared to other regions?

As far as your last statement: what is this based on? SEA has seen two 12"+ Februaries since 2019. I assume you're aware they had only seen one in their entire history prior.

In addition, 5 of the past 7 winters have seen 8"+ of snow. The last time that happened was the mid 1960s to early 1970s.

[Requiem]

Pretty large fire right by the CA OR border in Del Norte County. Wonder if it'll hop the border.

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

107, actually.

But beating that twice in three years probably can't be explained away by anything other than the climate changing.

Sure.

But Rubus started the dialogue by telling Tiger that he "couldn't escape this anywhere". That's just not reality - what the PNW is seeing in the summer is just not happening to nearly the same degree in most places.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Pretty large fire right by the CA OR border in Del Norte County. Wonder if it'll hop the border.

There was a good bit of lightning in that area last night. New fire south of Bend likely due to this T-Storm.

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

107, actually.

But beating that twice in three years probably can't be explained away by anything other than the climate changing.

The other interesting aspect of this is that the Portland area is alone in this feat. BLI, SEA, OLM, SLE, EUG...PDX is the only one that beat their previous all-time again this time. 

Obviously very impressive, but a much more localized extreme occurrence than June 2021, July 2009, August 1981, etc.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

There was a good bit of lightning in that area last night. New fire south of Bend likely due to this T-Storm.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The other interesting aspect of this is that the Portland area is alone in this feat. BLI, SEA, OLM, SLE, EUG...PDX is the only one that beat their previous all-time record again this time. 

Obviously very impressive, but a much more localized extreme occurrence than June 2021, July 2009, August 1981, etc.

The light NE downslope winds really helped propel the max temps at PDX, TTD. The east wind was supposed to be confined to the Foothills and Cascades, but surfaced much further west.

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 42 minutes

[ShawniganLake]

92 here. A little behind yesterday.  We could see a late afternoon spike if the winds switch to west here as flow is turning lightly onshore.  

[YahRaEl]

From The Weather Channel Android App: https://weather.com/news/weather/video/sweltering-temperatures-moving-across-the-country?pl=pl-the-latest

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The light NE downslope winds really helped propel the max temps at PDX, TTD. The east wind was supposed to be confined to the Foothills and Cascades, but surfaced much further west.

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 42 minutes

And the same thing helped make this a historic event on the coast. 95 at AST and 100 at UIL are top-tier numbers. While south of Salem, the smoke capped things.

Edited August 15, 2023 by BLI snowman

[TacomaWx]

91 here now. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Sure.

But Rubus started the dialogue by telling Tiger that he "couldn't escape this anywhere". That's just not reality - what the PNW is seeing in the summer is just not happening to nearly the same degree in most places.

Many people were saying the PNW would be a good place to escape climate change. Ooops!

I am confident that the chaos will start impacting other regions (in various ways, not necessarily summer heat waves) soon enough.

There is no place to hide. Sorry.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully the hottest temp for the rest of the year.    But sure it will be back in 2024.

[YahRaEl]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

91 here now. 

Nice your first 90° I almost thought it was gonna avoid 90° there. Ruston Way sitting at 83° much cooler along by the water there

[Front Ranger]

I think SEA will be able to eek out their first 95 today.

[Phishy Wx]

99 now, probably about 3 ish hours of heating left

[Deweydog]

Kind of a bummer we didn’t get any snow going into this.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Many people were saying the PNW would be a good place to escape climate change. Ooops!

I am confident that the chaos will start impacting other regions (in various ways, not necessarily summer heat waves) soon enough.

There is no place to hide. Sorry.

Vague is safe. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

49 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looks like some lightning coming into the central cascades in Oregon.  

What a nightmare, same thing happened last year and the year before... Oh and hell August 16, 2020 was the fatal lightning strike that started the infamous Beachie Creek Fire. 

[Front Ranger]

Drunkle scores a direct hit on SoCal. Still far-fetched, but the fact the Euro showed something similar lends it a bit of credence.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

95 and still climbing.  Sweating it out.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS looks warmer for next week compared to 12Z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

And the same thing helped make this a historic event on the coast. 95 at AST and 100 at UIL are top-tier numbers. While south of Salem, the smoke capped things.

105 at SLE yesterday was the 2nd latest they have ever hit that benchmark. SLE went from 1992 to 2006 without hitting 105. Since 2006 they have done it a... few times. 

2009 (106,017)

2015 (105)

2017 (107)

2021 (105,113,117)

2023 (105)

So if my math is correct, that's 8 times in the past 14 years. 

They also hit 103 twice last July, twice in August 2021, and 104 in August 2016. 

 

[the_convergence_zone]

21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

Your first post didn't acknowledge natural variability at all...

Do you mind pointing me towards studies from 10+ years ago that predicted greater amplification of PNW summer warmth compared to other regions?

As far as your last statement: what is this based on? SEA has seen two 12"+ Februaries since 2019. I assume you're aware they had only seen one in their entire history prior.

In addition, 5 of the past 7 winters have seen 8"+ of snow. The last time that happened was the mid 1960s to early 1970s.

UW Climate Impacts group put out a climate assessment in 2009: https://cig.uw.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/12/wacciaexecsummary638_compressed.pdf
 

Quote

Warming is expected to occur during all seasons with most models projecting the largest temperature increases in summer. The models with the most warming also produce the most summer drying.

Quote

Due to increased summer temperature and decreased summer precipitation, the area burned by fire regionally is projected to double by the 2040s and triple by the 2080s .

The fire prediction seems too conservative in retrospect.

Comparing to other regions is tricky because you would have to run a regional climate model with the same initialization in two different regions or use a larger domain. 10-15 years ago the use of regional climate models was quite innovative and expensive computationally. 

February is just one month, I have no idea why February has been running cold lately. It could be just random chance. 

[FroYoBro]

Triple digit threepeat for pdx!