2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[Black Hole]

Compare the above results for October to my new analog blend, its a pretty good match.

Here is what it shows for November:

Compare that to the EPS forecast for Nov 5-15:

 

Not a bad match. Might suggest a cooler month ahead. 

[Black Hole]

Rolling these analogs forward we get this for Dec, Jan, and Feb. This would be a warm Dec, but Jan-Feb look cold with some snow likely. 

[OKwx2k4]

Liking the forecasting stuff @Black Hole. I'm still sure that I'd add two years to that blend. 1969 and 2009. Possibly a third in 2002-03.

Often, anytime we see Alaska struggling to stay cold, it often signals cold downstream here over the US, so the (first) analogs crashed on that part. 

Seeing enso start in earnest pulling a modoki-style 2009 shift is another big confirmation that we are probably shifting out of conventional Niño territory. I guess I'd take the pattern advertised in the blend you have, but retrograde it west due to NAO and other variables coupled with Niño. 

[Black Hole]

9 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Liking the forecasting stuff @Black Hole. I'm still sure that I'd add two years to that blend. 1969 and 2009. Possibly a third in 2002-03.

Often, anytime we see Alaska struggling to stay cold, it often signals cold downstream here over the US, so the (first) analogs crashed on that part. 

Seeing enso start in earnest pulling a modoki-style 2009 shift is another big confirmation that we are probably shifting out of conventional Niño territory. I guess I'd take the pattern advertised in the blend you have, but retrograde it west due to NAO and other variables coupled with Niño. 

Don't get me wrong, 09/10 is definitely in the mix for other reasons, but strictly going by the observed pattern it wasn't the best match for NA for Oct so it didn't make the cut for the October update.

 

However, if we just matched the pattern we flipped to the last 10 days of the month it matches quite well to 2002 and 2009, with a lower weight to 1965, 1987, 1991. Check this out:

Of course its an entirely different analog set, and that is the weakness of trying to cling to monthly averages since patterns often change mid month. With that said, the western trough we've seen this month might be correlated with the MJO in phase 8 or 1. This same thing in DJF would give us an eastern trough so no reason to worry as far as I am concerned. 

 

[Tom]

10mb warming starting to blossom across Eurasia and into Siberia....if it continues to poke northward, Buckle Up...late Nov into Dec we could begin to see the effects.

 

[Black Hole]

I dropped my winter outlook in a separate thread.

 

 

[Black Hole]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

10mb warming starting to blossom across Eurasia and into Siberia....if it continues to poke northward, Buckle Up...late Nov into Dec we could begin to see the effects.

 

Definitely seeing some rumblings about a perturbation event towards the end of the month and even the EPS hinting at a SSW towards the end of December. Things are going well I'd say

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

I dropped my winter outlook in a separate thread.

 

 

Wow very nice job!!! Lots of good information there. 

[Hoosier]

One thing I'd say is that if you can manage to have a good December in a Nino (not a mediocre one, but an actual good one), it usually means that the winter won't be a ratter.  Of course the trick is to get a good December lol

[jaster220]

On 10/31/2023 at 6:46 PM, Tom said:

#SiberianExpress

Even DTW hit 26F Wed morning. May have been a degree or two colder up here. Still taking my spring jacket in the morning and it was cold.

[jaster220]

EC says "get ready S Plains"  @Clinton Including you too bud.

[Tom]

56 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

EC says "get ready S Plains"  @Clinton Including you too bud.

I was just going to post a map regarding this on the ECMWF Seasonal site...the fact that this model has a warm bias, you can get the idea of a cooler than normal winter for most in the Heartland into the OHV.  Since Aug, the Euro Seasonal has not backed down on this idea.  Very interesting to say the least!
 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

EC says "get ready S Plains"  @Clinton Including you too bud.

 

43 minutes ago, Tom said:

I was just going to post a map regarding this on the ECMWF Seasonal site...the fact that this model has a warm bias, you can get the idea of a cooler than normal winter for most in the Heartland into the OHV.  Since Aug, the Euro Seasonal has not backed down on this idea.  Very interesting to say the least!
 

Keep that warm water moving west, modoki Nino 

[westMJim]

Well here is a winter snowfall guess for this upcoming winter season.

 

That goes along with my guess of between 50 and 60 inches for Grand Rapids Michigan

[Clinton]

WxBell update on there Winter forecast.

• There are no changes to the overall forecast.
• Unlike last year, the worry is it will be colder than what we have out.
• A major stratospheric warming event may unfold in December, with some who's who of worst winter analogs in that group.
• While the ONI is very warm, the MEI, SOI, and TPI are not coming along for the ride.
  • This means the standard El Niño analogs are questionable.
• The MJO is expected to be centered in Phases 8 & 1, not Phases 4-6 like last year.

 

Snowfall will be crucial. Larger amounts in the heart of the season have occurred in the analog years and would mean colder temperatures:

New analog:

I am not going to rehash everything I had out before, but I will add some key points.

First of all, there is a strong El Niño by way of ONI standards (the Oceanic Nino Index). There is a big disconnect, however, with the Multivariate ENSO Index, the Southern Oscillation Index, and the Pacific Tripole (measures of the atmospheric response). In fact, we have never seen anything like this, and a look at the SSTs explains why:

There is little cold water anywhere, so the difference in temperatures (relative SSTs) is nowhere near the standard El Niño, which typically has cold water in the North Pacific near 40°N and the South Pacific near 40°S. For instance, the 2015 Super El Niño looked like this:

The 90-day SOI is in a weak El Niño state (-8 to -12) and for the month is not even to an El Niño. It's running close to 2002 and way under the warm El Niño winters of 1997-98, as is the MEI, which is at +0.6 (it was over +2.0 in the warm El Niños).

A look at the JMA upward motion pattern last year showed the two pigs fighting, with the feedback being a strong warm signal. Last year:

That lined up with the warm phases of the MJO:

Correlations:

This year, the forecast is for the exact opposite:

That looks like Phase 8.

The response can be seen in the JMA winter forecast:

That configuration of ridging leaves the door open for widespread severe cold from mid to late December into February, as the JMA monthly forecast for December shows the jet working across:

Then it has the whip come down in January:

The plot thickens when looking at the major stratospheric warming that is forecasted to evolve on the Euro from late November into December.

The week ending December 4:

The week ending December 11:

There have been 25 or so of these since 1950 and the blend from the late 1960s onward looks like this:

The winter seasons in those years were, on average, cold. December:

January:

February:

March:

There are some warm ones in there to blunt the severe cold ones. Those warm ones share in common a strong magnitude TPI - either greater than 1 (La Niña) or less than -1 (El Niño). This year it's in the middle and the ones in the middle when there is a December stratospheric warming event have had some of the most severe winters.

If we take the years within 0.3 of the current TPI with December stratospheric warnings, the following winters look like this:

The Verdict

I have not changed the maps but have shown what I fear the greatest threat is this year. Last year we nailed the cold December but the forecast was centering the cold in the center of the U.S. because I did not know which MJO signals would win out. This year I am much more confident colder signals will win out. With them is the threat of a widespread cold winter.

The other change from last year is that I don't expect winter to wait until mid and late winter. In fact, it may be the 45-60 days centered from mid-December to mid-February that can steal the show. There is a lot of potential here and it is not your standard El Niño. Europe will also share in the cold threat.

[Madtown]

Well if that pans out that could be a good winter!

[gimmesnow]

Yes please, if we can get a winter with minimal freeze-thaw for snowboarding and skiing I'll be super happy. No warmth means even if we are below average snowfall we'll at least get to see it stay around. Especially since I"m doing Ski Patrol, everyone hurts themselves when the snow sucks. Hopefully it'll be an easy year this year.

[Black Hole]

While the long range ECMWF weeklies don't have a lot of skill, it is nice to see the expected winter pattern setting up by the end. The +PNA ridge along the west coast and cooler air spilling into the east is just what you want. 

 

Also, watching MJO trends we see the wave dying as it tried to get into Phase 2, expected to emerge in 6-7 and then moving back into the 8-1 phase after. That's what we will want in mid winter and is consistent with expectations. 

[mlgamer]

With the drought still well established here, it is scary to note that it can be extremely dry over the winter. Look at how dry it was in Topeka these back-to-back winters:

Winter of 2001-2002: 0.16" of precip from 11/25/01 - 1/17/02 (54 days).

Winter of 2002-2003: 0.05" of precip from 11/15/02 - 1/14/03 (61 days).

Basically from mid-November to mid-January for two years total not even a quarter inch of precip fell!!

Hopefully this winter doesn't end up similar to these.

 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, sumweatherdude said:

Is that Bastardi?  It all sounds really good.  But if that's Bastardi, we have to admit he's a bit of a wishcaster.  I watched his twitter all last winter, and for him, severe winter was always right around the corner.  But most of his predictions didn't pan out.  So I guess I'm hoping this is coming from someone else.

 

From my understanding the forecast comes from their team of meteorologist. I do agree with their take on the MJO and some of the analogs are interesting, 77 and 78 were snowy winters in western Missouri.  The Euro seasonal and the JMA support their forecast so I guess we shall see how it plays.

[OKwx2k4]

On 11/2/2023 at 12:31 PM, sumweatherdude said:

For my own education, can you explain why 2009-10 looks like a good analog.  I honestly don't put much emphasis on analogs.  But that was a banner year in KC (and Chicago where I was at the time).  Curious why that looks like a good comparison this year -- as opposed to say 1986-87.

Thanks!

The atmosphere going into autumn. The late July cool spell then the top ten hot November for most of us are all very 2009ish. 

The other factor leaning to 2009 is the shifting nature of this Niño and where it's forcing are, as was in Bastardi's writing. 

1987s Niño was a major east based canonical Niño. 2009 and this one fall in the strong, central/west based category in my opinion based on forcing. 

[Andie]

79* Currently  Wind 18mph

Humidity 72*

Dew at 66

Cold front will roll in tomorrow and rain along with it. It will finally begin to act like Fall.  

[jaster220]

On 11/7/2023 at 5:51 AM, Clinton said:

WxBell update on there Winter forecast.

• There are no changes to the overall forecast.
• Unlike last year, the worry is it will be colder than what we have out.
• A major stratospheric warming event may unfold in December, with some who's who of worst winter analogs in that group.
• While the ONI is very warm, the MEI, SOI, and TPI are not coming along for the ride.
  • This means the standard El Niño analogs are questionable.
• The MJO is expected to be centered in Phases 8 & 1, not Phases 4-6 like last year.

 

Snowfall will be crucial. Larger amounts in the heart of the season have occurred in the analog years and would mean colder temperatures:

New analog:

I am not going to rehash everything I had out before, but I will add some key points.

First of all, there is a strong El Niño by way of ONI standards (the Oceanic Nino Index). There is a big disconnect, however, with the Multivariate ENSO Index, the Southern Oscillation Index, and the Pacific Tripole (measures of the atmospheric response). In fact, we have never seen anything like this, and a look at the SSTs explains why:

There is little cold water anywhere, so the difference in temperatures (relative SSTs) is nowhere near the standard El Niño, which typically has cold water in the North Pacific near 40°N and the South Pacific near 40°S. For instance, the 2015 Super El Niño looked like this:

The 90-day SOI is in a weak El Niño state (-8 to -12) and for the month is not even to an El Niño. It's running close to 2002 and way under the warm El Niño winters of 1997-98, as is the MEI, which is at +0.6 (it was over +2.0 in the warm El Niños).

A look at the JMA upward motion pattern last year showed the two pigs fighting, with the feedback being a strong warm signal. Last year:

That lined up with the warm phases of the MJO:

Correlations:

This year, the forecast is for the exact opposite:

That looks like Phase 8.

The response can be seen in the JMA winter forecast:

That configuration of ridging leaves the door open for widespread severe cold from mid to late December into February, as the JMA monthly forecast for December shows the jet working across:

Then it has the whip come down in January:

The plot thickens when looking at the major stratospheric warming that is forecasted to evolve on the Euro from late November into December.

The week ending December 4:

The week ending December 11:

There have been 25 or so of these since 1950 and the blend from the late 1960s onward looks like this:

The winter seasons in those years were, on average, cold. December:

January:

February:

March:

There are some warm ones in there to blunt the severe cold ones. Those warm ones share in common a strong magnitude TPI - either greater than 1 (La Niña) or less than -1 (El Niño). This year it's in the middle and the ones in the middle when there is a December stratospheric warming event have had some of the most severe winters.

If we take the years within 0.3 of the current TPI with December stratospheric warnings, the following winters look like this:

The Verdict

I have not changed the maps but have shown what I fear the greatest threat is this year. Last year we nailed the cold December but the forecast was centering the cold in the center of the U.S. because I did not know which MJO signals would win out. This year I am much more confident colder signals will win out. With them is the threat of a widespread cold winter.

The other change from last year is that I don't expect winter to wait until mid and late winter. In fact, it may be the 45-60 days centered from mid-December to mid-February that can steal the show. There is a lot of potential here and it is not your standard El Niño. Europe will also share in the cold threat.

So, if I'm reading this correctly then we indeed have an atypical Nino on our hands (aka the 2009-10 wildcard I mentioned) and the atmospheric response is anything BUT strong Nino-esque. JB's scenario is likely (as usual perhaps) the most snow-friendly take on what potential is there. Most are calling for mild northern tier based mainly on the ONI values & forecast. I like how he noted last year's 3rd year Nina acted more like a Nino, especially with the MJO mild phases. It would be just like Ma Nature to flip the script and balance that out. Did something like this cause the amazing Nino winter of 1925-26?? @Tom has been pretty adamant about my region having a decent "look" due to the blocking further north. 2015-16 mega-Nino effects were muted/delayed which allowed me to have a snowy winter in SWMI (Detroit missed out tho). This one looks interesting, especially after @Tom's post wrt upcoming pattern or CO Low. As for WxBell's seasonal outlooks, ofc JB is the pilot, but he doesn't fly solo.  

[Tom]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

So, if I'm reading this correctly then we indeed have an atypical Nino on our hands (aka the 2009-10 wildcard I mentioned) and the atmospheric response is anything BUT strong Nino-esque. JB's scenario is likely (as usual perhaps) the most snow-friendly take on what potential is there. Most are calling for mild northern tier based mainly on the ONI values & forecast. I like how he noted last year's 3rd year Nina acted more like a Nino, especially with the MJO mild phases. It would be just like Ma Nature to flip the script and balance that out. Did something like this cause the amazing Nino winter of 1925-26?? @Tom has been pretty adamant about my region having a decent "look" due to the blocking further north. 2015-16 mega-Nino effects were muted/delayed which allowed me to have a snowy winter in SWMI (Detroit missed out tho). This one looks interesting, especially after @Tom's post wrt upcoming pattern or CO Low. As for WxBell's seasonal outlooks, ofc JB is the pilot, but he doesn't fly solo.  

The 0z Euro and now other models are starting to latch onto the idea of a "High over Low" pattern with the next big ticket system late in the following weekend into Thanksgiving week.  I've noticed that this year's LRC pattern has been indicative of these setups.

 

 

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

The 0z Euro and now other models are starting to latch onto the idea of a "High over Low" pattern with the next big ticket system late in the following weekend into Thanksgiving week.  I've noticed that this year's LRC pattern has been indicative of these setups.

 

 

It looks like that'll be the common theme through at least the next few weeks. We will see how it evolves as the Nino forcing increases in December onwards. 

[gimmesnow]

2009-2010 was a really good winter for Wisconsin.

I found the new maps that show temp and snow over the year on the new climatology website. They are much nicer than the last ones

https://climatology.nelson.wisc.edu/first-order-station-climate-data/madison-climate/historical-snowfall/

09-10 was only a little above normal snowfall but it was much colder than normal. And we got a big snow at the start of the season so it stayed around.

After all the freeze thaw we've been having the last few years, that jan and feb look awesome. Lots of really cold nights for making snow and no that much above freezing to ruin it all.

We also saw a warm november in 09 that suddenly switched hard at the start of december. I'm not good enough at this stuff to know what an analog year is but I can at least find this kind of stuff. A 09-10 winter would be pretty awesome compared to the last few.

[jaster220]

December '09 MW/W Lakes blizzard was awesome. Mby in Marshall, a full 85 miles inland from Lake Michigan was about the eastern extent of sig snows. 

[Clinton]

Bastardis claim that the MJO would favor phase 8 and 1 this winter looks to have legs.  If this trend holds this forum will have a fantastic Winter.

 

[Tom]

46 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Bastardis claim that the MJO would favor phase 8 and 1 this winter looks to have legs.  If this trend holds this forum will have a fantastic Winter.

 

My preseason gut feeling is this will be a Winter to reckon with based off what I'm seeing and feeling.  As I said before, the Ozarks should reel in a few big ones this year!  I'm rooting for it so I can go visit my buddy down there in January!

[jaster220]

On 11/1/2023 at 11:09 PM, Black Hole said:

A good read on one mets outlook for the winter:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10gF1EktEgErvpJ_pIgmN-OTLpz0VRLRe/view

Extremely well executed analysis. Puts some images to ideas very nicely. You can certainly see from this how ENSO is not acting like a super/strong Nino at all. Some key items that jumped out:

Winters with MEI's <1.2 are much colder and much less suppressive of the STJ:

SER, as noticed showing up in our new LRC by @sumweatherdude:

And BOOOM! there it is. We get the filtered list of "best analogs" which indicates a secondary track favorable for the Lwr Lakes and he evens states that this makes the most sense. He notes that 2004-05 jumps onto the list from the weaker Nino camp. That was an awesome winter for SEMI that included the Christmas storm and cold wave, along with the last storm to deliver a 12+" storm at DTW with near bliz winds the Jan 22nd 2005 storm:

 

 

[jaster220]

57 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Bastardis claim that the MJO would favor phase 8 and 1 this winter looks to have legs.  If this trend holds this forum will have a fantastic Winter.

 

Also mentioned in Terpeast's write-up:

[Andie]

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/alaska-anchorage-snow-emergency
 

Alaska is already declaring a snow emergency.  Looks like you snow bunnies will have your snow dream come true.  

[jaster220]

31 minutes ago, Andie said:

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/alaska-anchorage-snow-emergency
 

Alaska is already declaring a snow emergency.  Looks like you snow bunnies will have your snow dream come true.  

Wow, reminds me of some early season storms during Nov in NMI. Typically, Alaska having a big winter doesn't align with this area scoring well, so I will reserve my enthusiasm for Anchorage. This is ofc a unique year and conditions are less than typical. If nothing else, it shows that this could hit fast and hard for whomever lands in it's crosshairs.

[Andie]

I just heard on the weather forecast that the El Niño is intensifying and will remain strong longer.  
Grab your rain and snow gear. It’s going to be a long winter. 

[jaster220]

Anchorage continues to get pounded

[Tom]

23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Anchorage continues to get pounded

Thompson Pass received and incredible 65" of snow in 24 hours!

[Tom]

Alright, alright, alright....The new JMA seasonal has come in with new details for the upcoming MET winter season.  I'll be honest and forthcoming, this has got to be one of the best climate model runs I've seen off the JMA for the Eastern CONUS.  What a wonderful 500mb pattern and ESP as we flip the calendar into 2024 as Ol' Man Winter has his Full Grip on the USA.  Let's Go!

DEC...while it did slightly back off the west coast ridge, this is not necessarily a very warm pattern unless your in the far north but average highs drop Sub Freezing and snow can still fall.

 

 

Temp/precip...the amount of blocking across Canada will undoubtedly suppress the overall storm track into the Southern U.S...#STJ...good signal for troughs to pound into the California/4 corners region and into the Heartland.  Nice AN precip Blob right over the drought areas.

 

 

JAN & FEB...this is when the Nation can really experience a Deep Deep Freeze esp if there is a large snow cover present.  Ozark Nation could literally be ground Zero for storms to eject out of the 4 corners/TX Panhandle and ride up the OHV or Apps every now and then if the pattern isn't suppressed to far south up along the EC.

 

Temp/Precip for Both months...

JAN...

 

FEB...

 

[jaster220]

40 minutes ago, Tom said:

Alright, alright, alright....The new JMA seasonal has come in with new details for the upcoming MET winter season.  I'll be honest and forthcoming, this has got to be one of the best climate model runs I've seen off the JMA for the Eastern CONUS.  What a wonderful 500mb pattern and ESP as we flip the calendar into 2024 as Ol' Man Winter has his Full Grip on the USA.  Let's Go!

DEC...while it did slightly back off the west coast ridge, this is not necessarily a very warm pattern unless your in the far north but average highs drop Sub Freezing and snow can still fall.

 

 

Temp/precip...the amount of blocking across Canada will undoubtedly suppress the overall storm track into the Southern U.S...#STJ...good signal for troughs to pound into the California/4 corners region and into the Heartland.  Nice AN precip Blob right over the drought areas.

 

 

JAN & FEB...this is when the Nation can really experience a Deep Deep Freeze esp if there is a large snow cover present.  Ozark Nation could literally be ground Zero for storms to eject out of the 4 corners/TX Panhandle and ride up the OHV or Apps every now and then if the pattern isn't suppressed to far south up along the EC.

 

Temp/Precip for Both months...

JAN...

 

FEB...

 

"Ozark Nation could literally be ground Zero"

Iirc, the 11/30-12/1/06 system hit hard down that way. Could see something like that happening again based on how the cold wants to dive due south out in the Plains. Initially, SWMI was forecast to get a foot of snow but the system stayed just a bit west and we ended up with a deadly ice storm instead. And I mean literally multiple fatalities. I thought I'd be one as I drove my car right through a huge tree that was across the road. I mean entire massive trees were down across roads that morning. Something you never expected to see from a shoulder season event. In the darkness, by the time you realized what it was, it was too late to stop. There was a fireman in the Marshall area that was killed that same way.

[Andie]

North Texas better prep and batten down the hatches.  
I’m stocking up and prepping survival modes here as No Texas may be in the cross hairs again.  
I’m passing this on to our city fleet manager as well.  Considering he lives here, has to get the City ready and would be fuming if I didn’t.  

[Tom]

When you start seeing the CFSv2 play "catchup"...veering away from the Blow Torch it had for December...you gotta get pretty darn excited that 3 Global Elite seasonal model are mostly suggesting that Met Winter starts off just right for Winter fans in the East.

Last 20 runs...

 

 

 

This is the most recent daily run....it has since flipped big time starting yesterday....that's a cold looking forecast if you ask me!