September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

The transition from spring to summer can take 4-5 months but the transition to fall can be done in about a week. All of our seasons seem to be very gradual slow changes but fall usually hits fast. 

2022-23 will go down as an extremely odd bookended cold season. It took us approximately one week to go from summer to winter late last year, and then it took about the same amount of time to go back from winter to summer this April/May.

[BLI snowman]

https://www.columbian.com/news/2023/sep/07/very-strong-el-nino-moving-up-oregon-coast-to-bring-warmer-winter-with-scorching-ocean-water-for-marine-life/

I wasn't aware that El Ninos "moved" up the West Coast. Guess the PNW coastal waters are a tropical ENSO region now.

Edited September 9, 2023 by BLI snowman

[Phishy Wx]

10 hours ago, iFred said:

Oh nice, where about? 

King of Prussia, PA

[Deweydog]

56 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

https://www.columbian.com/news/2023/sep/07/very-strong-el-nino-moving-up-oregon-coast-to-bring-warmer-winter-with-scorching-ocean-water-for-marine-life/

I wasn't aware that El Ninos "moved" up the West Coast. Guess the PNW coastal waters are a tropical ENSO region now.

Well, if it’s in The Columbian it’s ABSOLUTELY true.

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

https://www.columbian.com/news/2023/sep/07/very-strong-el-nino-moving-up-oregon-coast-to-bring-warmer-winter-with-scorching-ocean-water-for-marine-life/

I wasn't aware that El Ninos "moved" up the West Coast. Guess the PNW coastal waters are a tropical ENSO region now.

So many news outlets knowingly publish blatantly false information and the sad thing is that many people are too stupid to actually research or know anything about said information. 

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

2022-23 will go down as an extremely odd bookended cold season. It took us approximately one week to go from summer to winter late last year, and then it took about the same amount of time to go back from winter to summer this April/May.

Yeah, went from abnormally warm with smoky air in late October to some places getting lowland snow just a week later. 
 The switch flipped pretty significantly at the end of April as well. Another year I can think where the seasons changed pretty rapidly was March 2019. 

[Cold Snap]

Low of 47 this morning. Currently 65. Supposed to get into the 80s IMBY today and tomorrow.

[Phil]

47 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, went from abnormally warm with smoky air in late October to some places getting lowland snow just a week later. 
 The switch flipped pretty significantly at the end of April as well. Another year I can think where the seasons changed pretty rapidly was March 2019. 

The winter —> summer transition taking a long time is what I’d expect with the giant Pacific Ocean immediately upstream, but the switch flip from summer to winter is funny/weird.

I figure it has something to do with the equator/pole thermal gradient..exactly what I’m not sure.

[RentonHill]

 

Lee gonna take a late summer turn to the Hamptons??

 

[RentonHill]

Weeeee!!!

 

[the_convergence_zone]

 

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

So many news outlets knowingly publish blatantly false information and the sad thing is that many people are too stupid to actually research or know anything about said information. 

I wasn't even aware El Nino is a "tropical weather system" and it's pretty much where I stopped reading after the dumba** headline. 

[TT-SEA]

77 degrees... heading to the lake.   We have been boating in 6 consecutive months now (April-Sept).    Been a nice warm season.

[Cloud]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

77 degrees... heading to the lake.   We have been boating in 6 consecutive months now (April-Sept).    Been a nice warm season.

Cool story bro!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

Cool story bro!

Thanks!  

Just something I track.    Last summer it was only 4 months with the late start.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Thanks!  

Just something I track.    Last summer it was only 4 months with the late start.

That also means it's okay for ppl to be excited when the rainy season starts right?! You got 6 months worth of boating season. Though with a Nino, you might as well boat all year! 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

That also means it's okay for ppl to be excited when the rainy season starts right?! You got 6 months worth of boating season. Though with a Nino, you might as well boat all year! 

Yep!   I got my money's worth this warm season.    Let's go with winter now!

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yep!   I got my money's worth this warm season.    Let's go with winter!

Dude, any ideas on how to keep squirrels out of the garden? This is our first year growing corns and all of our matured corns are getting break into by D**n squirrels, so we have to break down our corns. We'll try again next year but need to figure out how to  keep the squirrels at bay. 

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Dude, any ideas on how to keep squirrels out of the garden? This is our first year growing corns and all of our matured corns are getting break into by D**n squirrels, so we have to break down our corns. We'll try again next year but need to figure out how to  keep the squirrels at bay. 

Squirrels are tough!   Can't keep them out with a fence.    For some reason we never have issues with squirrels.   Our area might have enough natural predators to keep them down.   Deer on the hand would destroy our garden in a day if given the chance.  

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

 

Wow, first run to show Lee hitting that far south. 

Models are still all over the place with location and timing, though.

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, first run to show Lee hitting that far south. 

Models are still all over the place with location and timing, though.

Ensembles have been showing a similar story for days, these outlier deterministic runs are little more than entertainment for now. 

[Cloud]

Oh no… El Niño

[Phil]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

 

Eh, verbatim that’s not too different from a midwinter nor’easter up there. But the hype will be insane if that verifies.  

[Phil]

Zap. ️ 

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful and not a cloud in the sky. 84F.

[the_convergence_zone]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Eh, verbatim that’s not too different from a midwinter nor’easter up there. But the hype will be insane if that verifies.  

Rain and wind, yeah. Storm surge would be a little different than a nor’easter. 

[TT-SEA]

84 here on the lake... predicted high is still 82.    Absolutely perfect out here... and completely calm.  

[iFred]

3 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

 

We instituted a policy that posting model outputs more than 48 hours out requires a license or a certification in meteorology. Joe Z on Twitter, sure you’ve heard of him, had suggested as much last winter.

Please refrain from any further speculation.

[Front Ranger]

34 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Oh no… El Niño

 

This is what they predicted last August.

 

And what happened:

 

Overall, they tend to underestimate cool anomalies.

[Phil]

Inject the new Euro seasonal into my veins.  

[Phil]

I’m surprised models aren’t more bullish on a strong autumn/early winter pacific jet. It’s very consistent signal across analog pools but LE guidance simply ain’t having it.

EPS seasonal is drier than average across most of BC/WA every month from September to (at least) March.

[Deweydog]

@Front Ranger

[Cloud]

45 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This is what they predicted last August.

 

And what happened:

 

Overall, they tend to underestimate cool anomalies.

Other than the SW, it was pretty accurate overall? EC is a coin flip. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Another trip into the Olympics. Beautiful day!

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

84 here on the lake... predicted high is still 82.    Absolutely perfect out here... and completely calm.  

 

You really need to call this in to Google and tell them.

[Cloud]

Inter-hour has SEA at 81. It’s likely the station already hit 80 when the official update is out. 

[TT-SEA]

Thanks to the Mariners for trying to ruin this beautiful day!  

[TT-SEA]

81 at SEA today.   

[the_convergence_zone]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

We instituted a policy that posting model outputs more than 48 hours out requires a license or a certification in meteorology. Joe Z on Twitter, sure you’ve heard of him, had suggested as much last winter.

Please refrain from any further speculation.

I prefer not to associate with that guy. In any case, we decided a few pages back that posting wild deterministic output is “fun” and I agreed to find all of the wind storms. 
 

[Meatyorologist]

I've never understood the rage around posting long range weather maps. It's not like most people get their weather info from random snow weenies online, let alone the weather service.

I love the bright colors. They decorate the place nicely.