Phil Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 37 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Perfect Storm 2.0?? Marky mark can play his own son in the sequel Lee is a master troll. Can’t recall this much attention ever being given to a fish storm. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 timing is moving up!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 15 hours ago, Phil said: Fair point, but this could be my last year here. Should be finished with school after this semester and will be looking for work in a new climate come spring. Hardest part will be convincing my better half to go along with it. Even a short distance move like State College PA would make a huge difference. What do you do with your portion of the family house you bought into. I have a friend who owns a property with multiple family members living on it. It seems like a great idea but I always wondered what happens when someones life forces a move away. How do you get the equity out? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Would be a great start to fall 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 21 minutes ago, RentonHill said: timing is moving up!!! Going to need EPS support... not there yet. Here is the 00Z EPS for the same time. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 26 minutes ago, Phil said: Lee is a master troll. Can’t recall this much attention ever being given to a fish storm. I’d bet we see it impact the NE or Atlantic Canada. Won’t be a cat 5 by then at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Wonder if we’ve seen the last 80 for the year for SEA. With the exception of last year, traditionally speaking, 80s are hard to come by starting around mid-Sept. Last was Sept 2 and there is a chance at an 80 tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Going to need EPS support... not there yet. Here is the 00Z EPS for the same time. things have changed in the last 12 hours. @Phil has there been any study as to when the GFS/GEFS have equivalent scoring as the Euro/EPS in terms of hours or days out? Like, is the GFS at 4.5 days out just as good as the Euro is at 5 days out? Obvi we know that Euro will score higher at same time horizon but I've always been curious as to how many more runs it takes the GFS to "catch up" to the older Euro run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 35 minutes ago, Phil said: Lee is a master troll. Can’t recall this much attention ever being given to a fish storm. Still a cool thing to see given its forecast for rapid intensification. Only a handful of hurricanes in its category for a 24-hr period intensification. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, RentonHill said: things have changed in the last 12 hours. @Phil has there been any study as to when the GFS/GEFS have equivalent scoring as the Euro/EPS in terms of hours or days out? Like, is the GFS at 4.5 days out just as good as the Euro is at 5 days out? Obvi we know that Euro will score higher at same time horizon but I've always been curious as to how many more runs it takes the GFS to "catch up" to the older Euro run. There are certainly situations when the ECMWF/EPS plays catch up with the GFS too. Always a possibility. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: There are certainly situations when the ECMWF/EPS plays catch up with the GFS too. Always a possibility. I mean even the GEFS wasnt buying it on the 6z. Grasping at straws but what else are we going to do while we wait for the wyrm to tyrn. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 The GIPper is interested, though.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 WOW 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 26 minutes ago, Cloud said: Wonder if we’ve seen the last 80 for the year for SEA. With the exception of last year, traditionally speaking, 80s are hard to come by starting around mid-Sept. Last was Sept 2 and there is a chance at an 80 tomorrow. If we don’t hit it tomorrow I’d bet we’re done. I’m taking the air conditioners down this weekend 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Tacoma Morecast and Weather& Radar forecasts Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 hour ago, RentonHill said: The GIPper is interested, though.... Looks like 12Z ECMWF is sort of on board with the GEM ensemble and in disagreement with the EPS. But did back off somewhat from its 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 hours ago, RentonHill said: things have changed in the last 12 hours. @Phil has there been any study as to when the GFS/GEFS have equivalent scoring as the Euro/EPS in terms of hours or days out? Like, is the GFS at 4.5 days out just as good as the Euro is at 5 days out? Obvi we know that Euro will score higher at same time horizon but I've always been curious as to how many more runs it takes the GFS to "catch up" to the older Euro run. I actually don’t know. Will have to dig thru my bookmarks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Pretty nice day yesterday. Lots of morning low clouds burning off in the afternoon. 76/56 spread. Low was set both in the morning and at midnight. First real foggy morning of the early autumn this morning, with a low of 51. Burned off around 11:30am. 67 and sunny now, should be heading for upper 70s today and mid to upper 80s tomorrow. Good chance PDX hits 80 today and 90 tomorrow. 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Looks like 12Z ECMWF is sort of on board with the GEM ensemble and in disagreement with the EPS. But did back off somewhat from its 00Z run. At these lead times we should be using statistical verbiage to discuss the models. I can't find it right now, but in the ECWMF training materials I think it says that beyond 4-5 days the skill of the deterministic run is no greater than randomly plucking one of the 50 ensemble members. So it's not really "on board" or "not on board" with anything, it's just a randomly selected sample out of a group of possibilities that likely have something close to a normal distribution. Weatherbell has such nice tools to deal with this…right now they show little more than a slight cooling trend with a huge standard deviation (likely representing the uncertainty in the ET transition of Lee) so any given member (e.g. the blue line) is going to randomly bounce around within the given ensemble spread. What we can say right now is that given the huge spread in the ensembles there is hope that we’ll get some interesting weather but we have no skill to know what that is right now. Hopefully the green line trends down with time in subsequent runs. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Who can decipher this? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said: At these lead times we should be using statistical verbiage to discuss the models. I can't find it right now, but in the ECWMF training materials I think it says that beyond 4-5 days the skill of the deterministic run is no greater than randomly plucking one of the 50 ensemble members. So it's not really "on board" or "not on board" with anything, it's just a randomly selected sample out of a group of possibilities that likely have something close to a normal distribution. Weatherbell has such nice tools to deal with this…right now they show little more than a slight cooling trend with a huge standard deviation (likely representing the uncertainty in the ET transition of Lee) so any given member (e.g. the blue line) is going to randomly bounce around within the given ensemble spread. What we can say right now is that given the huge spread in the ensembles there is hope that we’ll get some interesting weather but we have no skill to know what that is right now. Hopefully the green line trends down with time in subsequent runs. I was just amount to mention the huge spread in the GEFS members past day 5 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, RentonHill said: I was just amount to mention the huge spread in the GEFS members past day 5 and last nights EPS shows the same thing basically 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: At these lead times we should be using statistical verbiage to discuss the models. I can't find it right now, but in the ECWMF training materials I think it says that beyond 4-5 days the skill of the deterministic run is no greater than randomly plucking one of the 50 ensemble members. So it's not really "on board" or "not on board" with anything, it's just a randomly selected sample out of a group of possibilities that likely have something close to a normal distribution. Weatherbell has such nice tools to deal with this…right now they show little more than a slight cooling trend with a huge standard deviation (likely representing the uncertainty in the ET transition of Lee) so any given member (e.g. the blue line) is going to randomly bounce around within the given ensemble spread. What we can say right now is that given the huge spread in the ensembles there is hope that we’ll get some interesting weather but we have no skill to know what that is right now. Hopefully the green line trends down with time in subsequent runs. Don’t like this. I feel like a slew of light orange shaded maps are much more informative. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: What do you do with your portion of the family house you bought into. I have a friend who owns a property with multiple family members living on it. It seems like a great idea but I always wondered what happens when someones life forces a move away. How do you get the equity out? We haven’t talked about that yet but probably won’t attempt to. Especially since it was refinanced just before rates started skyrocketing..it’s basically free money. 2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: I’d bet we see it impact the NE or Atlantic Canada. Won’t be a cat 5 by then at least 12z ECMWF made a hefty jump south with the track over the next 4 days. Any further and things could get messy. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, RentonHill said: I was just amount to mention the huge spread in the GEFS members past day 5 Seasonal changes afoot. Ensemble spread starts going up around the equinoxes. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Don’t like this. I feel like a slew of light orange shaded maps are much more informative. Don't like this. A slew of blue maps always makes you feel better and would never be mocked. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Don't like this. A slew of blue maps always makes you feel better and would never be mocked. uhhhhh yeah don't you know tha RULEZ here 1 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 I wonder what Jesse is doing RIGHT NOW 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Only two weeks away! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 In my experience... the 500mb loop from the EPS is usually a good overall guide. When there is strong ridge or strong trough signal then its usually very meaningful. I realize this is a smoothed mean and things get washed out in the long range... but its still an excellent check against the much more volatile operational runs. And can also lend support to more extreme solutions. The 12Z EPS did trend more troughy around day 10 and shows a decent signal for offshore troughing in the long range. This tells us the GFS is likely being way too aggressive but also things could lean towards being more troughy in the 10-15 day period. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Only two weeks away! 2 weeks away... but also almost identical to the pattern today so its here now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I wonder what Jesse is doing RIGHT NOW himself? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Looks like a small step toward the operational on the 12z EPS. Definitely liking that cluster of wetter ensemble members around the 18th-20th. 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Cascadia_Wx Posted September 8, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Meant to post some pics of Indian Heaven last weekend. One of my favorite times of year to get up there, and fairly quiet for Labor Day weekend. This was last Saturday, so even had some light rain and distant rumbles of thunder for a period in the afternoon. Good huckleberry crop this year too. 15 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Beautiful day... 74 with a deep blue sky and excellent visibility. No haze at all. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 47 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Meant to post some pics of Indian Heaven last weekend. One of my favorite times of year to get up there, and fairly quiet for Labor Day weekend. This was last Saturday, so even had some light rain and distant rumbles of thunder for a period in the afternoon. Good huckleberry crop this year too. Beautiful snaps. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Beautiful snaps. Thank you kind Andrew. I feel very fortunate that this special place hasn’t been lost to fire yet. 3 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, Cascadia_Wx said: Thank you kind Andrew. I feel very fortunate that this special place hasn’t been lost to fire yet. I was thinking that as I was looking at the pictures. I will be up at Opal Creek tomorrow helping clean debris at the Ancient Forest Center. We'll see how depressing that trip is... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: I was thinking that as I was looking at the pictures. I will be up at Opal Creek tomorrow helping clean debris at the Ancient Forest Center. We'll see how depressing that trip is... Wow. First time up there since the fire? Get snaps plz. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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