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September 2023 Weather in the PNW


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37 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Perfect Storm 2.0?? Marky mark can play his own son in the sequel

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Lee is a master troll. 😂 Can’t recall this much attention ever being given to a fish storm.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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15 hours ago, Phil said:

Fair point, but this could be my last year here. 🤞 Should be finished with school after this semester and will be looking for work in a new climate come spring.

Hardest part will be convincing my better half to go along with it. Even a short distance move like State College PA would make a huge difference.

What do you do with your portion of the family house you bought into.  I have a friend who owns a property with multiple family members living on it. It seems like a great idea but I always wondered what happens when someones life forces a move away.  How do you get the equity out?  

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Going to need EPS support... not there yet.   Here is the 00Z EPS for the same time.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5016800.png

things have changed in the last 12 hours. @Phil has there been any study as to when the GFS/GEFS have equivalent scoring as the Euro/EPS in terms of hours or days out? Like, is the GFS at 4.5 days out just as good as the Euro is at 5 days out? Obvi we know that Euro will score higher at same time horizon but I've always been curious as to how many more runs it takes the GFS to "catch up" to the older Euro run. 

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35 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lee is a master troll. 😂 Can’t recall this much attention ever being given to a fish storm.

Still a cool thing to see given its forecast for rapid intensification. Only a handful of hurricanes in its category for a 24-hr period intensification. 

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4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

things have changed in the last 12 hours. @Phil has there been any study as to when the GFS/GEFS have equivalent scoring as the Euro/EPS in terms of hours or days out? Like, is the GFS at 4.5 days out just as good as the Euro is at 5 days out? Obvi we know that Euro will score higher at same time horizon but I've always been curious as to how many more runs it takes the GFS to "catch up" to the older Euro run. 

There are certainly situations when the ECMWF/EPS plays catch up with the GFS too.   Always a possibility.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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26 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Wonder if we’ve seen the last 80 for the year for SEA. With the exception of last year, traditionally speaking, 80s are hard to come by starting around mid-Sept. 

Last was Sept 2 and there is a chance at an 80 tomorrow. 

If we don’t hit it tomorrow I’d bet we’re done.  I’m taking the air conditioners down this weekend 

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1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

The GIPper is interested, though....

image.thumb.png.455851a97a9997c9c63c9fced18461ef.png

Looks like 12Z ECMWF is sort of on board with the GEM ensemble and in disagreement with the EPS.  But did back off somewhat from its 00Z run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

things have changed in the last 12 hours. @Phil has there been any study as to when the GFS/GEFS have equivalent scoring as the Euro/EPS in terms of hours or days out? Like, is the GFS at 4.5 days out just as good as the Euro is at 5 days out? Obvi we know that Euro will score higher at same time horizon but I've always been curious as to how many more runs it takes the GFS to "catch up" to the older Euro run. 

I actually don’t know. Will have to dig thru my bookmarks. 🤓

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Pretty nice day yesterday. Lots of morning low clouds burning off in the afternoon. 76/56 spread. Low was set both in the morning and at midnight.

First real foggy morning of the early autumn this morning, with a low of 51. Burned off around 11:30am. 67 and sunny now, should be heading for upper 70s today and mid to upper 80s tomorrow. Good chance PDX hits 80 today and 90 tomorrow.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like 12Z ECMWF is sort of on board with the GEM ensemble and in disagreement with the EPS.  But did back off somewhat from its 00Z run.

At these lead times we should be using statistical verbiage to discuss the models. I can't find it right now, but in the ECWMF training materials I think it says that beyond 4-5 days the skill of the deterministic run is no greater than randomly plucking one of the 50 ensemble members. So it's not really "on board" or "not on board" with anything, it's just a randomly selected sample out of a group of possibilities that likely have something close to a normal distribution. 

Weatherbell has such nice tools to deal with this…right now they show little more than a slight cooling trend with a huge standard deviation (likely representing the uncertainty in the ET transition of Lee) so any given member (e.g. the blue line) is going to randomly bounce around within the given ensemble spread. 
 

What we can say right now is that given the huge spread in the ensembles there is hope that we’ll get some interesting weather but we have no skill to know what that is right now. Hopefully the green line trends down with time in subsequent runs. 

IMG_0908.png

IMG_0907.png

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1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

At these lead times we should be using statistical verbiage to discuss the models. I can't find it right now, but in the ECWMF training materials I think it says that beyond 4-5 days the skill of the deterministic run is no greater than randomly plucking one of the 50 ensemble members. So it's not really "on board" or "not on board" with anything, it's just a randomly selected sample out of a group of possibilities that likely have something close to a normal distribution. 

Weatherbell has such nice tools to deal with this…right now they show little more than a slight cooling trend with a huge standard deviation (likely representing the uncertainty in the ET transition of Lee) so any given member (e.g. the blue line) is going to randomly bounce around within the given ensemble spread. 
 

What we can say right now is that given the huge spread in the ensembles there is hope that we’ll get some interesting weather but we have no skill to know what that is right now. Hopefully the green line trends down with time in subsequent runs. 

IMG_0908.png

IMG_0907.png

I was just amount to mention the huge spread in the GEFS members past day 5

gfs-renton-us-475n-122w (2).jpeg

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5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

At these lead times we should be using statistical verbiage to discuss the models. I can't find it right now, but in the ECWMF training materials I think it says that beyond 4-5 days the skill of the deterministic run is no greater than randomly plucking one of the 50 ensemble members. So it's not really "on board" or "not on board" with anything, it's just a randomly selected sample out of a group of possibilities that likely have something close to a normal distribution. 

Weatherbell has such nice tools to deal with this…right now they show little more than a slight cooling trend with a huge standard deviation (likely representing the uncertainty in the ET transition of Lee) so any given member (e.g. the blue line) is going to randomly bounce around within the given ensemble spread. 
 

What we can say right now is that given the huge spread in the ensembles there is hope that we’ll get some interesting weather but we have no skill to know what that is right now. Hopefully the green line trends down with time in subsequent runs. 

IMG_0908.png

IMG_0907.png

Don’t like this. I feel like a slew of light orange shaded maps are much more informative.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

What do you do with your portion of the family house you bought into.  I have a friend who owns a property with multiple family members living on it. It seems like a great idea but I always wondered what happens when someones life forces a move away.  How do you get the equity out?  

We haven’t talked about that yet but probably won’t attempt to. Especially since it was refinanced just before rates started skyrocketing..it’s basically free money.

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d bet we see it impact the NE or Atlantic Canada.  Won’t be a cat 5 by then at least 

12z ECMWF made a hefty jump south with the track over the next 4 days. Any further and things could get messy.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I was just amount to mention the huge spread in the GEFS members past day 5

gfs-renton-us-475n-122w (2).jpeg

Seasonal changes afoot. Ensemble spread starts going up around the equinoxes.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Don’t like this. I feel like a slew of light orange shaded maps are much more informative.

Don't like this.   A slew of blue maps always makes you feel better and would never be mocked.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't like this.   A slew of blue maps always makes you feel better and would never be mocked.   

uhhhhh yeah don't you know tha RULEZ here

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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I wonder what Jesse is doing RIGHT NOW

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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In my experience... the 500mb loop from the EPS is usually a good overall guide.   When there is strong ridge or strong trough signal then its usually very meaningful.    I realize this is a smoothed mean and things get washed out in the long range... but its still an excellent check against the much more volatile operational runs.   And can also lend support to more extreme solutions.

The 12Z EPS did trend more troughy around day 10 and shows a decent signal for offshore troughing in the long range.   This tells us the GFS is likely being way too aggressive but also things could lean towards being more troughy in the 10-15 day period.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1694174400-1694174400-1695470400-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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47 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Meant to post some pics of Indian Heaven last weekend. One of my favorite times of year to get up there, and fairly quiet for Labor Day weekend. This was last Saturday, so even had some light rain and distant rumbles of thunder for a period in the afternoon. Good huckleberry crop this year too.

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Beautiful snaps. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thank you kind Andrew. I feel very fortunate that this special place hasn’t been lost to fire yet.

I was thinking that as I was looking at the pictures. I will be up at Opal Creek tomorrow helping clean debris at the Ancient Forest Center. We'll see how depressing that trip is...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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