September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Snownerd3000]

I get what he's alluding to but I wonder how much Tonga influenced this off the charts 1 year change. 

[Cold Snap]

OT but this is one insane model run. Major Medicane in the Mediterranean.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Been playing Starfield and holy shitt is it so much fun. Between that and college football plus NFL starting this next weekend I've been way distracted. Hope everyone is doing well.

[Tyler Mode]

A few high clouds and 44, feels like fall.

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Been playing Starfield and holy shitt is it so much fun. Between that and college football plus NFL starting this next weekend I've been way distracted. Hope everyone is doing well.

I bit the bullet and got it Sunday night but wasn't able to play it until yesterday.  Fun game!

[YahRaEl]

Nino Region 3.4 is at +1.6c already at strong El Nino territory.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, ChristheElohim said:

Nino Region 3.4 is at +1.6c already at strong El Nino territory.

1972-73 redux 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So much new green grass in the lawn. Perhaps the fields may green up. Not much rain coming up, but a lot of seasonably cool nights. 42 this morning. 

[Phil]

New EPS seasonal not on board with the idea of an active early season NPAC jet, more STJ which benefits CA/far SW US while northern locales are left dry. December looks like the most variable month.

Basically your canonical super niño pattern.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I got stung on my tongue while we were camping.  Had one in my drink and didn’t know it.  I used to be highly allergic to them and had to go to the hospital if I got stung.  Luckily the venom immunotherapy I paid for was successful.  Decent chance that sting would have killed me years ago. 

Yeowch! That’s a sensitive spot.

I saw exactly zero yellowjackets where I was camped near Duffey Lake.

[Phil]

I ran over a yellowjackets nest with the lawnmower several years back. At that point I didn’t understand that they nested in the ground. Those buggers know to go for the head and upper back/hard to reach places.

Needless to say I drowned their asses with raid that night.

[the_convergence_zone]

The key with yellow jackets is to trap the queens in spring. It's a losing battle to trap the workers this time of year. 

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 50 this morning…64 and mostly sunny now very nice day. The rains have really helped with the wildfire smoke…and nothing really on the models to indicate we should worry about explosive fire growth. Good news despite minimal rain showing up in the next week on the models. 

[Cold Snap]

Since we are on the topic of bees right now I’ll just say that it’s really annoying when you are minding your own business and a bee starts flying all around you and up in your face and you can’t swat at it or anything because it will probably make it mad so you just have to hope it flies away or something. It’s almost like they are attracted to humans sometimes. Just bringing this up because I’m sitting outside waiting for a to-go order and one was bugging me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gonna be a big winter. 

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Since we are on the topic of bees right now I’ll just say that it’s really annoying when you are minding your own business and a bee starts flying all around you and up in your face and you can’t swat at it or anything because it will probably make it mad so you just have to hope it flies away or something. It’s almost like they are attracted to humans sometimes. Just bringing this up because I’m sitting outside waiting for a to-go order and one was bugging me.

That no swat idea always seemed to be off to me.  I don’t think I’ve ever been stung while swatting at a wasp.  I usually knock them out of the air and step on them.  On the other hand I’ve been stung multiple times when I didn’t even know the wasp was around. 

[LowerGarfield]

I hope it will still be cold enough, sub 45F for 5-6 days to kill the yellow jackets.

[Omegaraptor]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna be a big winter. 

for sourwesterly flow and ridging

[Cloud]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

New EPS seasonal not on board with the idea of an active early season NPAC jet, more STJ which benefits CA/far SW US while northern locales are left dry. December looks like the most variable month.

Basically your canonical super niño pattern.

Youch!! We’re about to cancel winter in September  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

for sourwesterly flow and ridging

We will see...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have a feeling things could get busy down in the southern regions this winter. 

[the_convergence_zone]

These winter predictions do nothing for me. In addition to having virtually no skill, they are just not very interesting. Winter weather in the lowlands is largely a meteorological fluke. We might get an Alaska block with coincident arctic air over western Canada or we might not. If I wanted winter weather I would move back to Wisconsin. Give me a powerful AR and a windstorm. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS shows a glancing system on Sunday but not much else.   Generally transitioning to a weak version of a western ridging/eastern troughing scenario. 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

These winter predictions do nothing for me. In addition to having virtually no skill, they are just not very interesting. Winter weather in the lowlands is largely a meteorological fluke. We might get an Alaska block with coincident arctic air over western Canada or we might not. If I wanted winter weather I would move back to Wisconsin. Give me a powerful AR and a windstorm. 

Just wait for me to issue a forecast. It will be spot on. Always is. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows a glancing system on Sunday but not much else.   Generally transitioning to a weak version of a western ridging/eastern troughing scenario. 

 

 

boring af

[the_convergence_zone]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just wait for me to issue a forecast. It will be spot on. Always is. 

Every year my winter prediction is for 0" of snow at Sea-Tac. I'm exactly correct about a quarter of the time and within a decade or two I'll be correct almost every year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just wait for me to issue a forecast. It will be spot on. Always is. 

Everyone thought 19-20 was going to be THE ONE, I bailed at the last minute while sifting through some shocking data, and scored a direct hit. 

We have to remember we are coming off probably the 3rd best winter of the 21st Century, so a repeat is very unlikely. Some kind of roided up version of 2009-10 is probably our ceiling, the floor is about as low as it could be. We could very well end up in the basement. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna be a big winter. 

For torching.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

For torching.

U so negative Phil. 

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Everyone thought 19-20 was going to be THE ONE, I bailed at the last minute while sifting through some shocking data, and scored a direct hit. 

We have to remember we are coming off probably the 3rd best winter of the 21st Century, so a repeat is very unlikely. Some kind of roided up version of 2009-10 is probably our ceiling, the floor is about as low as it could be. We could very well end up in the basement. 

Can’t say with any certainly that a “dud” is in store, especially since just one solid week is all it would take.

But a warmer winter for the northern half of the CONUS is statistically favored. Doesn’t mean it will happen, but this is a big boy EPAC Niño, and it is likely to be the dominant low frequency player throughout DJF barring a massive SSW/MJO takeover from the LP.

The fact we’ll likely have a clean, maturing -QBO does make things more interesting, though. Strong niño/+QBO is the most reliable “dud” scenario in the PNW region these days. Niño/-QBO can do more interesting things.

[MossMan]

November. 

[Phil]

Yet another day pushing 100°F.

Trees starting to drop leaves like crazy, probably due to drought stress. Have seen thicker foliage in mid-October.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

U so negative Phil. 

Low expectations = less disappointment. Good for mental health. At least for me.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Since we are on the topic of bees right now I’ll just say that it’s really annoying when you are minding your own business and a bee starts flying all around you and up in your face and you can’t swat at it or anything because it will probably make it mad so you just have to hope it flies away or something. It’s almost like they are attracted to humans sometimes. Just bringing this up because I’m sitting outside waiting for a to-go order and one was bugging me.

Bees and wasps are two entirely different sorts of critter.

Bees are not by nature aggressive, and their stings are pretty meh unless you are one of the few unfortunates who are hypersensitive to them.

Wasps are much more intrinsically aggressive, and have much nastier stings. Also, their stingers are not barbed, so a wasp (unlike a bee) can with impunity sting again and again.

Wasps can sting just for the hell of it. Bees will sting only as a last resort.

I will swat wasps away, hard and aggressively, if need be. The harder the better, because it is more likely to stun and disorient the wasp. Then I go in the opposite direction I swatted the wasp. Have not been stung for doing this.

Last time I was stung by a wasp, I was not even aware of it until she stung me. It hurt like the devil for hours. Last time I was stung by a bee, same reason. It felt like a pin prick, and it went away after a few minutes. The bee died, and I felt sorry for her.

[Meatyorologist]

Well pretty much every trough over the next two and a half months or so is going to bring no real threat of any appreciable Arctic weather. This winter is probably going to be a dud, but at least if we get ridging now we might get some of of this crap out of the way before winter starts. Maybe we could sneak in a little week or so of interesting weather in Nov/Dec. idk. This is all just superstitious rambling.

[Meatyorologist]

NWS San Angelo gets the tone right

[Snownerd3000]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Well pretty much every trough over the next two and a half months or so is going to bring no real threat of any appreciable Arctic weather. This winter is probably going to be a dud, but at least if we get ridging now we might get some of of this crap out of the way before winter starts. Maybe we could sneak in a little week or so of interesting weather in Nov/Dec. idk. This is all just superstitious rambling.

I've got nothing but superstitious ramblings. Bring on the Shaman.

[T-Town]

8 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I've got nothing but superstitious ramblings. Bring on the Shaman.

The bongo cat will show us the way.  

[Tyler Mode]

One word for days weather: Perfect!

High of 70 after a low of 44 with fog to start and fair skies this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

One word for days weather: Perfect!

High of 70 after a low of 44 with fog to start and fair skies this afternoon.

My wife had the day off and she was starting to clean up the garden and I had to join her out there for awhile because it was so pleasant.   Really doesn't get any better than a day like today to be working in the yard.