September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Perfect Storm 2.0?? Marky mark can play his own son in the sequel

Lee is a master troll. Can’t recall this much attention ever being given to a fish storm.

[RentonHill]

timing is moving up!!! 

[ShawniganLake]

15 hours ago, Phil said:

Fair point, but this could be my last year here. Should be finished with school after this semester and will be looking for work in a new climate come spring.

Hardest part will be convincing my better half to go along with it. Even a short distance move like State College PA would make a huge difference.

What do you do with your portion of the family house you bought into.  I have a friend who owns a property with multiple family members living on it. It seems like a great idea but I always wondered what happens when someones life forces a move away.  How do you get the equity out?  

[RentonHill]

Would be a great start to fall 

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

timing is moving up!!! 

Going to need EPS support... not there yet.   Here is the 00Z EPS for the same time.  

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lee is a master troll. Can’t recall this much attention ever being given to a fish storm.

I’d bet we see it impact the NE or Atlantic Canada.  Won’t be a cat 5 by then at least 

[Cloud]

Wonder if we’ve seen the last 80 for the year for SEA. With the exception of last year, traditionally speaking, 80s are hard to come by starting around mid-Sept. 

Last was Sept 2 and there is a chance at an 80 tomorrow. 

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Going to need EPS support... not there yet.   Here is the 00Z EPS for the same time.  

things have changed in the last 12 hours. @Phil has there been any study as to when the GFS/GEFS have equivalent scoring as the Euro/EPS in terms of hours or days out? Like, is the GFS at 4.5 days out just as good as the Euro is at 5 days out? Obvi we know that Euro will score higher at same time horizon but I've always been curious as to how many more runs it takes the GFS to "catch up" to the older Euro run. 

[Cloud]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lee is a master troll. Can’t recall this much attention ever being given to a fish storm.

Still a cool thing to see given its forecast for rapid intensification. Only a handful of hurricanes in its category for a 24-hr period intensification. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

things have changed in the last 12 hours. @Phil has there been any study as to when the GFS/GEFS have equivalent scoring as the Euro/EPS in terms of hours or days out? Like, is the GFS at 4.5 days out just as good as the Euro is at 5 days out? Obvi we know that Euro will score higher at same time horizon but I've always been curious as to how many more runs it takes the GFS to "catch up" to the older Euro run. 

There are certainly situations when the ECMWF/EPS plays catch up with the GFS too.   Always a possibility.  

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There are certainly situations when the ECMWF/EPS plays catch up with the GFS too.   Always a possibility.  

I mean even the GEFS wasnt buying it on the 6z.  Grasping at straws but what else are we going to do while we wait for the wyrm to tyrn. 

 

[RentonHill]

The GIPper is interested, though....

[Phishy Wx]

WOW

 

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Wonder if we’ve seen the last 80 for the year for SEA. With the exception of last year, traditionally speaking, 80s are hard to come by starting around mid-Sept. 

Last was Sept 2 and there is a chance at an 80 tomorrow. 

If we don’t hit it tomorrow I’d bet we’re done.  I’m taking the air conditioners down this weekend 

[ChrisEl Elyon]

Tacoma Morecast and Weather& Radar forecasts 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

The GIPper is interested, though....

Looks like 12Z ECMWF is sort of on board with the GEM ensemble and in disagreement with the EPS.  But did back off somewhat from its 00Z run.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

things have changed in the last 12 hours. @Phil has there been any study as to when the GFS/GEFS have equivalent scoring as the Euro/EPS in terms of hours or days out? Like, is the GFS at 4.5 days out just as good as the Euro is at 5 days out? Obvi we know that Euro will score higher at same time horizon but I've always been curious as to how many more runs it takes the GFS to "catch up" to the older Euro run. 

I actually don’t know. Will have to dig thru my bookmarks.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty nice day yesterday. Lots of morning low clouds burning off in the afternoon. 76/56 spread. Low was set both in the morning and at midnight.

First real foggy morning of the early autumn this morning, with a low of 51. Burned off around 11:30am. 67 and sunny now, should be heading for upper 70s today and mid to upper 80s tomorrow. Good chance PDX hits 80 today and 90 tomorrow.

[the_convergence_zone]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like 12Z ECMWF is sort of on board with the GEM ensemble and in disagreement with the EPS.  But did back off somewhat from its 00Z run.

At these lead times we should be using statistical verbiage to discuss the models. I can't find it right now, but in the ECWMF training materials I think it says that beyond 4-5 days the skill of the deterministic run is no greater than randomly plucking one of the 50 ensemble members. So it's not really "on board" or "not on board" with anything, it's just a randomly selected sample out of a group of possibilities that likely have something close to a normal distribution. 

Weatherbell has such nice tools to deal with this…right now they show little more than a slight cooling trend with a huge standard deviation (likely representing the uncertainty in the ET transition of Lee) so any given member (e.g. the blue line) is going to randomly bounce around within the given ensemble spread. 
 

What we can say right now is that given the huge spread in the ensembles there is hope that we’ll get some interesting weather but we have no skill to know what that is right now. Hopefully the green line trends down with time in subsequent runs. 

[Snownerd3000]

 

Who can decipher this? 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

At these lead times we should be using statistical verbiage to discuss the models. I can't find it right now, but in the ECWMF training materials I think it says that beyond 4-5 days the skill of the deterministic run is no greater than randomly plucking one of the 50 ensemble members. So it's not really "on board" or "not on board" with anything, it's just a randomly selected sample out of a group of possibilities that likely have something close to a normal distribution. 

Weatherbell has such nice tools to deal with this…right now they show little more than a slight cooling trend with a huge standard deviation (likely representing the uncertainty in the ET transition of Lee) so any given member (e.g. the blue line) is going to randomly bounce around within the given ensemble spread. 
 

What we can say right now is that given the huge spread in the ensembles there is hope that we’ll get some interesting weather but we have no skill to know what that is right now. Hopefully the green line trends down with time in subsequent runs. 

I was just amount to mention the huge spread in the GEFS members past day 5

[RentonHill]

Just now, RentonHill said:

I was just amount to mention the huge spread in the GEFS members past day 5

and last nights EPS shows the same thing basically

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

At these lead times we should be using statistical verbiage to discuss the models. I can't find it right now, but in the ECWMF training materials I think it says that beyond 4-5 days the skill of the deterministic run is no greater than randomly plucking one of the 50 ensemble members. So it's not really "on board" or "not on board" with anything, it's just a randomly selected sample out of a group of possibilities that likely have something close to a normal distribution. 

Weatherbell has such nice tools to deal with this…right now they show little more than a slight cooling trend with a huge standard deviation (likely representing the uncertainty in the ET transition of Lee) so any given member (e.g. the blue line) is going to randomly bounce around within the given ensemble spread. 
 

What we can say right now is that given the huge spread in the ensembles there is hope that we’ll get some interesting weather but we have no skill to know what that is right now. Hopefully the green line trends down with time in subsequent runs. 

Don’t like this. I feel like a slew of light orange shaded maps are much more informative.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

What do you do with your portion of the family house you bought into.  I have a friend who owns a property with multiple family members living on it. It seems like a great idea but I always wondered what happens when someones life forces a move away.  How do you get the equity out?  

We haven’t talked about that yet but probably won’t attempt to. Especially since it was refinanced just before rates started skyrocketing..it’s basically free money.

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d bet we see it impact the NE or Atlantic Canada.  Won’t be a cat 5 by then at least 

12z ECMWF made a hefty jump south with the track over the next 4 days. Any further and things could get messy.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I was just amount to mention the huge spread in the GEFS members past day 5

Seasonal changes afoot. Ensemble spread starts going up around the equinoxes.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Don’t like this. I feel like a slew of light orange shaded maps are much more informative.

Don't like this.   A slew of blue maps always makes you feel better and would never be mocked.   

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't like this.   A slew of blue maps always makes you feel better and would never be mocked.   

uhhhhh yeah don't you know tha RULEZ here

[Meatyorologist]

I wonder what Jesse is doing RIGHT NOW

[RentonHill]

Only two weeks away!

[TT-SEA]

In my experience... the 500mb loop from the EPS is usually a good overall guide.   When there is strong ridge or strong trough signal then its usually very meaningful.    I realize this is a smoothed mean and things get washed out in the long range... but its still an excellent check against the much more volatile operational runs.   And can also lend support to more extreme solutions.

The 12Z EPS did trend more troughy around day 10 and shows a decent signal for offshore troughing in the long range.   This tells us the GFS is likely being way too aggressive but also things could lean towards being more troughy in the 10-15 day period.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Only two weeks away!

2 weeks away... but also almost identical to the pattern today so its here now.   

[Phishy Wx]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I wonder what Jesse is doing RIGHT NOW

himself?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like a small step toward the operational on the 12z EPS. Definitely liking that cluster of wetter ensemble members around the 18th-20th.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Meant to post some pics of Indian Heaven last weekend. One of my favorite times of year to get up there, and fairly quiet for Labor Day weekend. This was last Saturday, so even had some light rain and distant rumbles of thunder for a period in the afternoon. Good huckleberry crop this year too.

 

 

 

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day... 74 with a deep blue sky and excellent visibility.  No haze at all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

47 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Meant to post some pics of Indian Heaven last weekend. One of my favorite times of year to get up there, and fairly quiet for Labor Day weekend. This was last Saturday, so even had some light rain and distant rumbles of thunder for a period in the afternoon. Good huckleberry crop this year too.

 

 

 

 

 

Beautiful snaps. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful snaps. 

Thank you kind Andrew. I feel very fortunate that this special place hasn’t been lost to fire yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thank you kind Andrew. I feel very fortunate that this special place hasn’t been lost to fire yet.

I was thinking that as I was looking at the pictures. I will be up at Opal Creek tomorrow helping clean debris at the Ancient Forest Center. We'll see how depressing that trip is...

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was thinking that as I was looking at the pictures. I will be up at Opal Creek tomorrow helping clean debris at the Ancient Forest Center. We'll see how depressing that trip is...

Wow. First time up there since the fire? Get snaps plz.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Excited about the hints of fall on the models. A few systems in late September certainly does not mean we are just wet until next May either, September 2013 was extremely wet and very stormy late in the month, but as followed by a very dry October, and really it was pretty dry all the way up until February 2014. 

We have the start of a pretty solid green up right now, even down in the valley you can see the impact a little rain made, another inch or two of rain by the end of the month would be a cherry on top. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wow. First time up there since the fire? Get snaps plz.

Yes, my wife is pretty upset she isn't going, but because they can only let a very limited number of people go up there, they had a volunteer lottery.

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like a small step toward the operational on the 12z EPS. Definitely liking that cluster of wetter ensemble members around the 18th-20th.

Heres 00z/12z for Renton. Definitely more precip chances after the 15th

[BLI snowman]

Just got back from a week romping through the desert in far west Texas and New Mexico. Looks like I didn't miss too much up here aside from the storms in the SW Portland metro last weekend.

Checked out three more national parks (Guadalupe, Carlsbad Caverns, and White Sands) and even caught a weak ~35mph dust devil yesterday just north of Albuquerque. ABQ set a daily record yesterday with 97, and temps were over 100 for a couple of my days further south, very hot for this late in the season even down there.

 

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Just got back from a week romping through the desert in far west Texas and New Mexico. Looks like I didn't miss too much up here aside from the storms in the SW Portland metro last weekend.

Checked out three more national parks (Guadalupe, Carlsbad Caverns, and White Sands) and even caught a weak ~35mph dust devil yesterday just north of Albuquerque. ABQ set a daily record yesterday with 97, and temps were over 100 for a couple of my days further south, very hot for this late in the season even down there.

 

Did you retire like our friend Jim from Federal Way?  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

54 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thank you kind Andrew. I feel very fortunate that this special place hasn’t been lost to fire yet.

Fire created it.

Without fire, it would be dense forest, maybe some berry bushes in the understory, but too shady for good berry crops.

It needs to burn again. Knock the trees back, keep it open. Sooner it burns, the less fuel there will be, better chance of a low-intensity fire. Berry bushes vigorously resprout from their roots after those.

[Deweydog]

I went to Oregon City this morning but didn’t take any snaps.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I went to Oregon City this morning but didn’t take any snaps.

Thank you for the update Matthew... I am sure it was a blessed trip.  

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Fire created it.

Without fire, it would be dense forest, maybe some berry bushes in the understory, but too shady for good berry crops.

It needs to burn again. Knock the trees back, keep it open. Sooner it burns, the less fuel there will be, better chance of a low-intensity fire. Berry bushes vigorously resprout from their roots after those.

Hmmmm.   Interesting.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Quote

The Sawtooth Berry Field in the northern part of Indian Heaven Wilderness is world renowned for its wealth of huckleberries. The area was burned in the late 1890's and again in the Great Fires of 1902. The fields were subsequently maintained by later fires, which may be attributed to Native Americans whose berry-drying fires would escape.

https://www.fs.usda.gov/recarea/giffordpinchot/recarea/?recid=31710