September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

0.14" of piddling dregs from generally south-focused storm action today. At least it's not still bone dry like it was on this date last year.

[Cold Snap]

Up to 1.15” of rain today. Been sitting in the convergence zone pretty much the entire day.

[MossMan]

30 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

0.14" of piddling dregs from generally south-focused storm action today. At least it's not still bone dry like it was on this date last year.

We are .14” twinzies! 

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I think you need a new gutter, brother.

Nope just replaced. Just a lot of rain. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really, really hate the direction the long range models are going in. A week or so of near average temps is the best we can ask for I guess.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Nope just replaced. Just a lot of rain. 

It’s not broken, just too small for that roof.

Swapped ours out last spring for 6” gutters and it made a huge difference during the summer downpours. No more waterfalls pouring off the roof  

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Really, really hate the direction the long range GFS is going.
A week or so of near average temps is the best we can ask for I guess.

FYP

[Cascadia_Wx]

Meanwhile today was really lovely. Blustery and rainy this morning and early afternoon, then showers and sunbreaks later on. 62/54 spread. Currently 56 with drizzle.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

FYP

Any model that’s showing death ridging over us should be given about 1,000X more weight than the ones that aren’t.

[Phil]

Long range GFS stings my heart because it depicts a beautiful pattern IMBY, but I’m pretty sure it’s full of s**t.

[Phil]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Any model that’s showing death ridging over us should be given about 1,000X more weight than the ones that aren’t.

That dry/splitty niño pattern usually doesn’t establish until late December, especially with an EPAC niño.

Anomalous subsidence projected over the WPAC by both the EPS and GEFS. Don’t let the operational GFS throw you.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

That dry/splitty niño pattern usually doesn’t establish until late December, especially with an EPAC niño.

Anomalous subsidence projected over the WPAC by both the EPS and GEFS. Don’t let the operational GFS throw you.

I’ll take a troughy and wet pattern literally any time of year. It’s so rare these days not to have some sort of record setting ridge sitting on top of us.

Honestly we’ve had some decent rain and some normal fall like temps the last 7-10 days, and that looks to last another 3-5 or so. So by then, judging by modern climo, we will definitely be due for at least 2-3 weeks of flirting with near record smashing warmth again.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ll take a troughy and wet pattern literally any time of year. It’s so rare these days not to have some sort of record setting ridge sitting on top of us.

Honestly we’ve had some decent rain and some normal fall like temps the last 7-10 days, and that looks to last another 3-5 or so. So by then, judging by modern climo, we will definitely be due for at least 2-3 weeks of flirting with near record smashing warmth again.

The amount of whining on social media the past week has been intense. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The amount of whining on social media the past week has been intense. 

Glad I don’t have any.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The amount of whining on social media the past week has been intense. 

Whining because it finally rained? 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The amount of whining on social media the past week has been intense. 

Haven't seen or heard any complaints.   I think you make this up for your entertainment.   Are you back to your Karen-mocking after being a total Karen yourself for months.   

We have had very little rain for 5 months.   Why would people be complaining about 3 days of rain?   Particularly when their phones show nicer weather ahead.   Don't buy it. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

That dry/splitty niño pattern usually doesn’t establish until late December, especially with an EPAC niño.

Anomalous subsidence projected over the WPAC by both the EPS and GEFS. Don’t let the operational GFS throw you.

00Z ECMWF actually looks like the GFS now.   But the EPS hasn't shown any ridging signal so it's probably just model noise. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Haven't seen or heard any complaints.   I think you make this up for your entertainment.   Are you back to your Karen-mocking after being a total Karen yourself for months.   

We have had very little rain for 5 months.   We would people be complaining about 3 days of rain?   Particularly when their phones show nicer weather ahead.   Don't buy it. 

Not sure what you are talking about. But we are talking about some very wrong very sad individuals who cannot even handle our rapidly warming and drying climate. We are not quite California yet. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure what you are talking about. But we are talking about some very wrong very sad individuals who cannot even handle our rapidly warming and drying climate. We are not quite California yet. 

I am talking about not seeing or hearing any complaints.    You have been complaining for months and then gravitate to mocking anyone for complaining about something else.   I think you are what you protest. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am talking about not seeing or hearing any complaints.    You have been complaining for months and then gravitate to mocking anyone for complaining about something else.   I think you are what you protest. 

I haven’t been complaining. We had a beautiful winter and now a lovely start to fall. 

[Cold Snap]

Ended with 1.36” of rain for the day. That was quite the convergence zone.

[Meatyorologist]

On 9/26/2023 at 8:12 PM, Phil said:

I thought I had all ENSOs memorized back to WWII. Guess I’m not as sharp as I thought.  

When the autsim fails

[ShawniganLake]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

That dry/splitty niño pattern usually doesn’t establish until late December, especially with an EPAC niño.

Anomalous subsidence projected over the WPAC by both the EPS and GEFS. Don’t let the operational GFS throw you.

[Cloud]

Been real nice to have the troughy period and above average rainfall for the month but it doesn’t seem like summer is quite done with us yet! Potentially warm and dry heading into 2nd week of Oct. 

[TT-SEA]

45 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Been real nice to have the troughy period and above average rainfall for the month but it doesn’t seem like summer is quite done with us yet! Potentially warm and dry heading into 2nd week of Oct. 

Don't think it will actually be summer-like with ridging in October... and the nights will be probably be chillier than shown below if skies are clear.    Also quickly approaching inversion season.    The trees will probably starting putting on a nice show now that they aren't starving for water.   

[TT-SEA]

SEA is now at 3.42 inches of rain for September... good enough to move into the top 10 wettest.     This month is currently in 9th place.   Another .09 would move us up to 7th but that might not happen as the main rain band this morning is mostly east of Seattle now.

[TT-SEA]

@Port Angeles Foothiller are you getting decent rain this morning?   The flow is more westerly now so your area should be less shadowed.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stake through the heart with these model runs. Good thing I won’t be around for this awful weather coming up. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Stake through the heart with these model runs. Good thing I won’t be around for this awful weather coming up. 

You sound just like the people you heard complaining about the rain.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You sound just like the people you heard complaining about the rain.    

I just long for seasonal PNW. Not rooting for climate destruction. Huge moral distinction. I don’t expect you to understand that. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just long for seasonal PNW. Not rooting for climate destruction. Huge moral distinction. I don’t expect you to understand that. 

All complaining about nature.    Not going to change anything.   You don't know God's big plan and there is no morality in weather.   

And obviously some days in the 60s and 70s in October is not unusual or destructive.  

[TT-SEA]

Same argument can be made for people who love big storms or chase severe weather.    Nature is going to do what its going to do... its silly to say those people are morally wrong for being fascinated with destructive weather.    Morality is not concept that applies to nature.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

16 hours ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Doesn't look that suspect to me, with respect to other stations west of I-5. In fact, there is a range from BLI (north) to Port Townsend (south) that all are around 5 to 10" for the year. This includes Stanwood (west of I-5), Camano Island, Sequim, Whidbey Island. Chuckanut Drive has a couple readings that are similar too (8.90" and 8.46")

Arrogant statement, given that it's literally what the data shows and your demonstrated poor understanding of PNW geography. 

1.21" today, 5.82" on the month, and still raining  

I can remember at least 1, but I think there were actually 2 instances where we basically had a convergence zone type feature that ran from SW to NE over Lake Whatcom.  I was on the edge of that moisture band, and it was set up for several hours.  We got a crap ton of rain that day.  Seems like there have been several other instances BLI seemed to be donut holed. 

I know there was one day where we did get a lot of widespread rain, and the airport did not report anything.  Randy Small, our local weather "guru" reached out to the tower at KBLI and to the NWS to make them aware of the error but I don't know if it got corrected, so that number could be .5-1" short of what actually fell there.

[the_convergence_zone]

Two weekends in a row with nice weather? Sign me up. I’ve got a bunch of outdoor tasks that need to be done. 
 

I think the models are overdoing this now, it will turn to fogmageddon if the ridge sticks around too long. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Two weekends in a row with nice weather? Sign me up. I’ve got a bunch of outdoor tasks that need to be done. 
 

I think the models are overdoing this now, it will turn to fogmageddon if the ridge sticks around too long. 

After about the middle of October ridging usually ends up being cooler than active patterns.  

[Slushy Inch]

Save DECEMBER!

[Chewbacca Defense]

16 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Went into the office today for the first time in six months.... what a weird feeling.

I was in an office work setting for the first time in over a year a couple of weeks ago.  I got in really early, and for the first half hour I was thinking "I kinda miss this" but then once everyone showed up, and there were impromptu huddles at people cubicles, and the conference calls fired up I realized "no I don't"

 

I definitely miss the proverbial "chatting at the water cooler" social aspects, but that's all that I miss.

[Phishy Wx]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All complaining about nature.    Not going to change anything.   You don't know God's big plan and there is no morality in weather.   

And obviously some days in the 60s and 70s in October is not unusual or destructive.  

lol don't throw god BS into a scientific discussion.  oof

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol don't throw god BS into a scientific discussion.  oof

He’s just trying to speak on Andrew’s terms 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol don't throw god BS into a scientific discussion.  oof

I did that just for Andrew.   I totally agree with you.    Nature is way too cruel and random.