September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[hawkstwelve]

Really loving the continued signal for a decent rain event centered around a week from now for the Plains and MW. Still lots of time for things to change but this has been a consistent feature in the models for a while which lends some credence to it happening. Crossing my fingers it comes to fruition.

Until then, not much precip to write home about and temps will be on a rollercoaster ride with some 70s, some 80s, and even an outside chance at cracking 90 again early next week.

We've really been enjoying the cooler/cloudier conditions as of late. Really makes me yearn for full-on fall and winter pattern. I'm so ready to put this summer behind us!

[Niko]

On 9/14/2023 at 8:38 AM, luminen said:

Thankfully it doesn't look as strong as Fiona (2022) or Dorian (2019) which I both experienced here. Looks like a good storm for minimal damage, although the power might still go out here. 

Yes, this could have been a different story had it made that westward jog. Still an impressive storm for some. I think the hotspot is  Nova Scotia. They will get nailed.

[chescowxman]

Another beautiful autumnal day underway here across the County! Our low this morning of 50.5 here in East Nantmeal was our chilliest reading since the 47.2 degree reading back on June 8th. Some of the higher spots of Chesco may fail to escape the 60's for high temps this afternoon. Some valley locations could see some lows in the 40's both Saturday and Sunday mornings.

Records for today: High 93 (1927) / Low 35 (1895) / Rain 1.85" (1904)

[Niko]

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Current readings are in the mid 60s under deep blue skies. Started off quite nippy, w temps in the mid 40s. Ya gotta luv this time of the year, weatherwise. Mild sunny days and chilly crisp nites.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Niko said:

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Current readings are in the mid 60s under deep blue skies. Started off quite nippy, w temps in the mid 40s. Ya gotta luv this time of the year, weatherwise. Mild sunny days and chilly crisp nites.

I was thinking the same this morning on my way to the gym.  Just wonderful and love being outside in this weather.

[Iceresistance]

@Andie How much rain did you get?

[jaster220]

Congrats Plains Peeps

[Iceresistance]

43 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Congrats Plains Peeps

But wait! There's more!

[Andie]

4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@Andie How much rain did you get?

Well, my gauge cracked up from the heat but I’d say a third of an inch over these 2 days.  
The rain was light but every bit soaked into the ground and the grass everywhere has already responded.  
Greening up fast.  

[Madtown]

56 and rain today. .18" in the gauge....I'll trade all these 50's and rain for 20's in snow!

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 72/47, there was no rain fall the sun was out 77% of the possible time. There were 0 CDD’s for the month so far there have been 60. There were 5 HDD’s and for the month so far there have been 33. For today the average H/L is now down to 74/53 the record high for the day is 89 set in 1906 and 1955.  The record low of 32 was set in 1902. Today is the 1st day that has not reached 90 or better since May 24th There are 11 more dates that have reached 90 or better before we have the last one on September 29th The record rain fall for today is 2.26” in 1981. Last year the H/L was 80/53. At the current time it is 49 here in MBY.

[Hawkeye]

I'm getting a bit concerned about the Euro trend.  It had been getting much wetter for my area, but now it's trending back west with the heavy rain.  It is now trying to develop a big cut-off low over the southeast US and ridging over the lakes, which pumps dry air into Iowa and holds the western trough farther west.  This is similar to the pattern we were stuck in back in spring that got the drought started.  The latest op Euro is now mostly dry through the end of the month and the EPS has shifted the better rain westward into the plains.  The GFS/GEFS is not developing the southeast low, so it's more progressive and wetter for our area.

[luminen]

13 hours ago, Madtown said:

56 and rain today. .18" in the gauge....I'll trade all these 50's and rain for 20's in snow!

Yeah can't wait for this winter.

Looking forward to 10F, heavy snow, and wind. 

[Niko]

21 hours ago, Tom said:

I was thinking the same this morning on my way to the gym.  Just wonderful and love being outside in this weather.

Exactly, especially, having a cup of that morning fresh coffee outside in that cool crisp air. Lets enjoy it now becuz b4 ya know it, snow and frigid temps will be here.

 

[chescowxman]

Some spots reached the 40's this AM but will rebound into the low to mid-70's. Rain chances increase by tomorrow PM into Monday AM with up to 0.50" for some spots. Then dry and close to normal weather for mid to late September for the rest of the week.

Records for today: High 91 (1991) / Low 36 (1913) / Rain 7.85" (1999)

[Clinton]

12z GFS has lots of rain through my next week hope it's right cause the Euro is not on board.

[Hawkeye]

34 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS has lots of rain through my next week hope it's right cause the Euro is not on board.

The op Euro has flipped and is now almost totally dry here through the end of the run.  EPS mean qpf is dropping each run.

[Iceresistance]

There might be a Supercell threat for my area next week, local mets and models are mentioning "The Dry Line"

[Andie]

We have the tiniest cell over us right now and nothing else around for miles!  
a really nice rain! Bingo!!

73*

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Andie said:

We have the tiniest cell over us right now and nothing else around for miles!  
a really nice rain! Bingo!!

73*

Don't you just love how nature can be so kind...finally???  

It's like up here, the system rolling through this morning is the quintessential set up I would want to see in the WINTER!  Perfect track, Perfect wind trajectory off the Lake, and combine both system and lake moisture....one can DREAM!  There is even embedded lighting closer to the lakeshore due to the enhanced dynamics coming off the Lake.

 

 

 

LOT updated their local outlook...

[Tom]

@Clinton @Hawkeye...I have a good feeling the models are not handling the Big Hudson Bay Block late next week into the following.  The 0z Euro came back around and now paints what I believe will be a solid soaking storm, slowly moving through the Sub.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 72/50, there was a trace of rain fall and 4 HDD’s. The sun was out just 16% of the time the highest wind speed was just 13MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 74/53 the record high of 92 was set in 1906 and the record low of 37 was set in 1902 and 1959. The record rain fall amount of 2.29” fell in 1997. Last year it was a summer like 83/61.

Most of the next week looks to be uneventful. There is a chance of showers today and a very slight chance of showers mid week. Temperatures will be cool to start and then warm up by mid week. Highs will start off in the upper 60’s before warming to the upper 70’s with a 80 or so tossed in for good measure. Lows will be in the in the 40’s and 50’s.

 

[chescowxman]

Early sun today will fade quickly behind clouds with showers arriving during the 2pm hour across much of Chester County. The latest NAM shows a general 3/4 inch of rain...other models less than a 1/2 inch. If this was winter it could be the difference between 4" of snow to 8"...in late summer we just enjoy the needed rain!

Records for today: High 93 (1898) / Low 35 (1990) / Rain 3.90" (1945)

[Tom]

This has been a delightful and unexpected heavy rain event for the Chicago area.  Flood warnings issued for  pretty much the entire metro.   Radar is showing a nice heavy band about to rotate through.  Pretty friggin’ awesome …closing in on one inch…

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like we dropped to 45 degrees this morning. Wonderful Fall weather. Starting to see some colors in the trees. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton @Hawkeye...I have a good feeling the models are not handling the Big Hudson Bay Block late next week into the following.  The 0z Euro came back around and now paints what I believe will be a solid soaking storm, slowly moving through the Sub.

Looks quite rainy

[Andie]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Don't you just love how nature can be so kind...finally???  

It's like up here, the system rolling through this morning is the quintessential set up I would want to see in the WINTER!  Perfect track, Perfect wind trajectory off the Lake, and combine both system and lake moisture....one can DREAM!  There is even embedded lighting closer to the lakeshore due to the enhanced dynamics coming off the Lake.

 

 

 

LOT updated their local outlook...

It’s on its way, Tom!   
Enjoy this Fall.  Prettiest time of year.  
We have a week of 90-92*. A reprieve for us. Weather and temps will turn in a week or so.  
Everything has greened up from rain. Will help curb the dry kill we can get here.  
I can handle it! Fall is within reach!!

[jaster220]

Really enjoying the ideal temp stretch here. Also have hints of tree color beginning. Just a great month in SMI

@Tom Wow, quite the compact little monster storm focusing it's best over Chicago and yby. Surprising sometimes how ORD and DTW can be on different planets weather wise.

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Really enjoying the ideal temp stretch here. Also have hints of tree color beginning. Just a great month in SMI

@Tom Wow, quite the compact little monster storm focusing it's best over Chicago and yby. Surprising sometimes how ORD and DTW can be on different planets weather wise.

Yup, but not when we get both smashed with a lower lakes cutter!  It’s coming soon my friend.

[chescowxman]

First day with temps remaining in the 60's since August 24th along with 0.12" of rain so far this afternoon with a bit more on the way tonight into tomorrow...after that a beautiful autumnal week on tap for the County!!

Tough one for the Phightin Phillies today but go Phils as we move toward Red October!!!

[OKwx2k4]

These laye September heavy rains coming up in the forecast remind me yet again of the 2000, 2001 autumns along with 2009 and 2010. 

Looking more and more like something special is shaping up in our future weather patterns.

[OKwx2k4]

Looking ahead through the week, our friends in the Rockies of Colorado and points NW look to record their first snowfalls if the GFS holds up. 

Worth noting that for Colorado this is a month early or so as its first snows average in October.

[james1976]

Starting to see some color in the trees here in MN too. Been a pleasant weekend with highs around 70 and lows in the upper 40s.

[Clinton]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton @Hawkeye...I have a good feeling the models are not handling the Big Hudson Bay Block late next week into the following.  The 0z Euro came back around and now paints what I believe will be a solid soaking storm, slowly moving through the Sub.

12z came in even better for mby.  So looking forward to anything that amounts to more than .20 lol

[Andie]

89*.  27% humidity

Not bad at all.  

[OKwx2k4]

With a flurry of hurricane activity these last few weeks, I've undershot the total of named storms to date at 15. I believe my max was 15 total with 3-5 majors, so I'm wrong. 

Wouldn't have guessed in a Niño year that we would have spiked so high in total ace, but they're definitely not all the same. 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Yup, but not when we get both smashed with a lower lakes cutter!  It’s coming soon my friend.

I think it was a payback for the March slammer that we got and pretty sure ORD peeps were not included in that one. There was also that late January storm that never waivered from slamming SEMI. I think you got a few inches of snow tho from that with a follow-in clipper iirc. 

[Andie]

2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

With a flurry of hurricane activity these last few weeks, I've undershot the total of named storms to date at 15. I believe my max was 15 total with 3-5 majors, so I'm wrong. 

Wouldn't have guessed in a Niño year that we would have spiked so high in total ace, but they're definitely not all the same. 

It was certainly the east coast’s year.  

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

It was certainly the east coast’s year.  

I know I did speak of late-season storms razing the NE coast and "fish storms" but actually at an "invest" and 14 storms, I got the max wrong. We'll see this pattern blend into our winter pattern. 

[Iceresistance]

@Black Hole @OKwx2k4