westMJim Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 68/54 there was no rain fall. The sun was out 14% of the possible time. There were 4 HDD’s and the highest wind speed was 17 MPH out of the N. For today the average H/L is now down to 73/52, the record high of 94 was set in 1906 and the record low of 35 was set in 1973. The record rain fall amount of 0.86” fell in 1911. Last year it was still a summer like 82/65 and there was 0.14” of rain fall. At the current time I have 47 here in MBY. The week ahead will start off on the cool side today and then warm up to a little above average for the end of the week and weekend. The highs today will be in the 60’s and then we should see temperatures in the upper 70’s to around 80. Lows tonight will be in the 40’s before rising to the upper 50’s All in all a rather nice late September week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 0.43" of rain since yesterday. We have seen 3.17" of rain over the last 11 days. The sun returns this afternoon with next rain chances not till the weekend. Cool nights and pleasant days all week. Records for today: High 93 (1898) / Low 35 (1990) / Rain 3.90" (1945) 1 Quote All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County. There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science! Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" - 11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8") Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com. Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx National Weather Service SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 14 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: Looking ahead through the week, our friends in the Rockies of Colorado and points NW look to record their first snowfalls if the GFS holds up. Worth noting that for Colorado this is a month early or so as its first snows average in October. Pikes Peak, CO already had more than 8" back on 9/14...Winter has come early! https://denvergazette.com/outtherecolorado/news/snow-stacks-up-on-colorado-peak-with-8-more-inches-on-the-way/article_f17af674-53f3-11ee-8f08-1b0d62b700fd.html 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 ORD picked up a solid soaker yesterday with 1.62" of rainfall. More coming tomorrow morning from a wave heading out of IA into N IL. Sorta reminds of a wave of SN that forms along an arctic frontal boundary in the Winter. Where's my mind at today??? Happy freakin' Monday! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 This "Blocking Party" up in Canada is something else...#hudsonbayblock...its making things rather interesting tracking this autumn system that has a similar characteristic of a Bowling Ball system! Look at that Beauty of a Block up Top... 0z GEFS 500mb animation is a wonderful way to close out SEP and open up OCT. Say Hello to the Aleutian Low! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: @Black Hole @OKwx2k4 I hope we all like rain. After this event kicks it off, we're going to look and feel like the Seattle of the south with all the clouds for the duration of the forecast. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, Tom said: This "Blocking Party" up in Canada is something else...#hudsonbayblock...its making things rather interesting tracking this autumn system that has a similar characteristic of a Bowling Ball system! Look at that Beauty of a Block up Top... 0z GEFS 500mb animation is a wonderful way to close out SEP and open up OCT. Say Hello to the Aleutian Low! Yeah. When it retros from GOA to Aleutians, we're in business. Lock it in! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Tom said: More coming tomorrow morning from a wave heading out of IA into N IL. Sorta reminds of a wave of SN that forms along an arctic frontal boundary in the Winter. Where's my mind at today??? Happy freakin' Monday! Models are all over the place with placement and strength of this disturbance. The Euro drops heavy rain here, but most models have it missing north/east or have it being much weaker. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Models are all over the place with placement and strength of this disturbance. The Euro drops heavy rain here, but most models have it missing north/east or have it being much weaker. No doubt about that as the blocking is so strong it’ll be a few days before we get some consistency. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 5 hours ago, Iceresistance said: @Black Hole @OKwx2k4 It's probably going to be too cloudy and showery for much of the day to really get the severe threat going. But if we do stay a little sunnier and mostly dry I could imagine some pretty good storms forming up in the afternoon or early evening. Mostly a wind threat, but some hail possible too. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 @Clinton, I'm curious to know if Gary has commented at all about what he's seeing in the modeling for OCT? I don't follow his paid blog and since we are getting closer to the period when the old LRC begins to fade out, he usually says whats on his mind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 Topeka has officially received only 0.30" of rain for Sept and is running a -1.76" deficit for the month after an already very dry meteorological summer. The models are backing off any beneficial rain for the short term anyway though still some hope for the end of the week. We just can't buy a decent rain around here. 1 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 Long range GFS...I know. But I did like how it sucks a TC into a deep trough that shakes up the pattern and builds the west coast ridge. I've seen this happen plenty of times before so its possible even if not likely at this time. The downstream development drops that crazy cut off into the southern Plains. 4 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 1 hour ago, mlgamer said: Topeka has officially received only 0.30" of rain for Sept and is running a -1.76" deficit for the month after an already very dry meteorological summer. The models are backing off any beneficial rain for the short term anyway though still some hope for the end of the week. We just can't buy a decent rain around here. Very similar story for us in Omaha as well with just over a half inch of rainfall this month so far... we had a decent 45 day run from early July to mid-August, however the rain spigot turned off quickly after that as the heat set in and moderate to severe drought conditions are now returning across Eastern Nebraska. Hopefully this weekend will deliver some much needed rainfall, however the lack of agreement with the models on where the heaviest rain will setup has me wondering. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 @bud2380 @Hawkeye could be a surprising soaker tonight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 2 hours ago, Tom said: @Clinton, I'm curious to know if Gary has commented at all about what he's seeing in the modeling for OCT? I don't follow his paid blog and since we are getting closer to the period when the old LRC begins to fade out, he usually says whats on his mind. No I haven't. I don't have a subscription though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 18, 2023 Report Share Posted September 18, 2023 2 hours ago, Black Hole said: Long range GFS...I know. But I did like how it sucks a TC into a deep trough that shakes up the pattern and builds the west coast ridge. I've seen this happen plenty of times before so its possible even if not likely at this time. The downstream development drops that crazy cut off into the southern Plains. There's good stuff all over that run for crossing into October. I agree with the emphasis on "long range" but realistically that's where this is headed. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 18z GFS has 50s and a soaking rain here Saturday. Local met has low 70s but also mentions a soaker. Trends are looking pretty good up here. Haven't had a system like this in quite some time. We'll see how it plays out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 @Clinton I like your chances of getting some good rain outta this tiny, but potent little wave... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 67/49. There was no rain fall the sun was out just 27% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was 17 MPH out of the N. For today the average H/L is 73/52 the record high of 91 was set in 1908 the record low of 36 was set in 1929, 1979 and 2020. The record rain fall amount of 1.73” fell in 1988. The sun is above the horizon for 12H and 19M about the same as March 24th Last year the H/L was 79/62 and there was a trace of rain fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 The last week of September spells it out with the arrival of Fall. Not enough rain though. Tuesday night brings a swift set of showers 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Our great autumnal weather continues for the remainder of this week. Temps should tend to average a bit below normal for latter September. Tonight looks to be the chilliest night with many lower spots across the county seeing temps falling into the 40's. Rain chances increase from south to north by Saturday afternoon. Records for today: High 92 (1983) / Low 36 (1943) / Rain 3.27" (1894) Quote All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County. There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science! Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" - 11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8") Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com. Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx National Weather Service SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 3 hours ago, Tom said: @Clinton I like your chances of getting some good rain outta this tiny, but potent little wave... I've been keeping my eye on this trying not to jinx it lol. Let get this rain party started! Things are looking good late Saturday as well! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Uh oh 1 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 59 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Uh oh Yeah that front will have some energy in it. DFW will catch some storms Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Mother Nature gave us trash yet again overnight and this morning. There was very little heavy rain anywhere in the area, but the best rain still split north and south of Cedar Rapids. I got some thunder, particularly from one decent cell, but it was tiny and passed through in about two minutes. The rest of the rain was very light. I finished with only 0.16". We are now drier from May-Sep this year than we were in 2012... 12 inches below normal. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Made a trip up to Boone, IA this morning for a customer training event and they got absolutely dumped on up there as storms trained continuously over the area… I have no idea how much rain fell, however all the ditches were full of runoff. Drove out from Omaha at 6:00am this morning and most of the drive was accompanied by occasional downpours and some of the most vivid lightning I have seen… definitely will be a day trip that I will remember LOL. Heading back west now out of Des Moines and finally out of the torrential rains… meanwhile it looks warm and dry as usual back home. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: Mother Nature gave us trash yet again overnight and this morning. There was very little heavy rain anywhere in the area, but the best rain still split north and south of Cedar Rapids. I got some thunder, particularly from one decent cell, but it was tiny and passed through in about two minutes. The rest of the rain was very light. I finished with only 0.16". We are now drier from May-Sep this year than we were in 2012... 12 inches below normal. Hopefully some relief is on the way for both of us. Like how the GFS has shifted east even with the rain chances over the weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Just think about the possibilities of this slow moving system in the Winter....High over Low and Easterly Flow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 24 minutes ago, Clinton said: Hopefully some relief is on the way for both of us. Like how the GFS has shifted east even with the rain chances over the weekend. This is going to be a fun system to track...a multi day system stuck under a massive Hudson Bay Block... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Latest op Euro.... yes, please. This entire region desperately needs this. 1 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Hopefully some relief is on the way for both of us. Like how the GFS has shifted east even with the rain chances over the weekend. I know we need the rain but I’m glad it’s moving east as i have some big outdoor events this weekend lined up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Basically, if this happens or even close this winter, I'll be in snow or precip for like 7 days straight. Those maps are a HUGE blessing for those suffering drought and I'm thrilled to see it. @Iceresistance, these storms look like they've got a little thump in them. Will be a bumpy evening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 50 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: I know we need the rain but I’m glad it’s moving east as i have some big outdoor events this weekend lined up I'll take all of it! Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 49 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Basically, if this happens or even close this winter, I'll be in snow or precip for like 7 days straight. Those maps are a HUGE blessing for those suffering drought and I'm thrilled to see it. @Iceresistance, these storms look like they've got a little thump in them. Will be a bumpy evening. I am watching the models closely, I got NAMed Only model with storms coming from NW Oklahoma 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted September 19, 2023 Report Share Posted September 19, 2023 Mostly a disappointment so far with everything falling apart as it came in. I see some beefy storms across central and SW OK and near DFW this afternoon. I'd be surprised if any of that made it in here, but once the LLJ gets going we should see storms light up near and north of the boundary cutting from near Le Flore County up through north-central OK. Latest HRRR hinting at the general idea of what I am looking at. With the warm advection and lift from the jet in this airmass, we should do well up here tonight...but we will see! Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted September 20, 2023 Report Share Posted September 20, 2023 There’s a good chance I’ll see some rain around 10 tonight in far SW Tarrant Co/Ft Worth. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2023 Report Share Posted September 20, 2023 Goodness, the thunder is crazy! 4 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2023 Report Share Posted September 20, 2023 TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR SHAWNEE 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 20, 2023 Report Share Posted September 20, 2023 33 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR SHAWNEE That's crazy stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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